The Red Zone Report

For the last few seasons, Conference USA has been all Memphis and little else. While the Tigers emerged as a national power under John Calipari,

This season, with the Tigers in transition after Calipari’s departure to Kentucky and the loss of a chunk of talent, C-USA is very wide open, and there is a legitimate chance that the conference could land multiple NCAA Tournament berths for the first time since the 2005/06 season, when Memphis and UAB both made the Big Dance.

All the same, the conference could still end up being a one-bid league if things shake out the wrong way.

Here’s a look at the C-USA’s top five and their chances at making the Big Dance.

UAB

Record: 20-5, 8-3 C-USA
RPI: 31
Best Wins: vs. Georgia, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Butler, at Arkansas, vs. Tulsa
Worst Losses: vs. UTEP, vs. Marshall
Remaining Games: vs. Houston, at UCF, vs. Tulane, vs. Memphis, at UTEP

Right now, UAB is in the best position of the tournament hopefuls, thanks to wins over a top-20 Butler team, a solid Cincinnati team, an Arkansas team that’s hot right now, and a Georgia team that has wins over Illinois, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt.

However, all is not rosy for the Blazers because of those home losses to UTEP and Marshall. Now, they don’t have what you’d call an absolutely dreadful loss, but home conference losses are anything but helpful.

Those last two games against the Tigers and Miners are going to be pivotal. Win both, and a deep run in the C-USA tournament won’t be a necessity to secure the program‘s first Big Dance berth under fourth-year coach Mike Davis. Win one, and they’re on track. Lose both, and the conference tournament becomes quite the priority.

Marshall

Record: 19-7, 7-4 C-USA
RPI: 62
Best Wins: at UAB, vs. Tulsa
Worst Losses: at Houston
Remaining Games: at Tulane, at Rice, vs. UCF, vs. UTEP, at SMU

If Marshall hadn’t lost five games in a row in late January and early February, they’d be on track to have enough wins to really make the committee think, at the very least.

Wins at UAB and over Tulsa in the last week have bumped their RPI up, but unfortunately for them, that five-game losing streak put them in a hole that they won’t be able to get out of save for a conference tournament title. Their non-conference schedule also doesn’t match up nearly as well as their conference rivals, as the best thing on their slate is an eight-point home loss to instate rival West Virginia.

As it stands, the home stretch is favorable enough for Marshall to win out, and winning out could land them the #3 or #4 seed in the conference tournament, which would position them well for a run at the automatic bid. They already know they can hang with and beat the conference‘s best, so that conference tournament title is much more realistic possibility than pipe dream. No matter whether their season ends in the NCAA Tournament or in another postseason tournament, Marshall coach Donnie Jones deserves a ton of credit for even putting the program in this position in only his third season at the helm.

Memphis

Record: 19-7, 9-2 C-USA
RPI: 63
Best Wins: vs. UAB, vs. Oakland, at Tulsa
Worst Losses: at Massachusetts, vs. UTEP, at SMU
Remaining Games: vs. SMU, at Houston, vs. Southern Miss, at UAB, vs. Tulsa

Don’t be surprised if Memphis ends up being the one that lands the conference’s automatic bid, because in a year where they were supposed to be down and out, they’re still somehow hanging around.

However, that might be the only way that we see Memphis dancing again, unless winning out and suffering a close loss in the C-USA tournament title game somehow sways the committee. The win over UAB is nice, and landing a season sweep over the Blazers would be a big boost, but not having much to show for having faced four top-15 opponents will have them sweating it out on Selection Sunday if they don‘t land the automatic bid.

Are the Tigers one of the top 65 teams in the country? No doubt about it. However, their resume would look a lot more appetizing if one of those close-ish losses to Kansas, Tennessee, and Gonzaga was a win, and if there weren’t those unsightly losses to Umass (10-16, 10th in the Atlantic 10) and SMU (12-13, 8th in C-USA). Oh, the power of the ‘what if?’.

UTEP

Record: 19-5, 10-1 C-USA
RPI: 57
Best Wins: at Oklahoma, at Memphis, at UAB, vs. Tulsa
Worst Losses: vs. New Mexico State, at Houston
Remaining Games: at Tulsa, at Southern Miss, vs. Rice, at Marshall, vs. UAB

The Miners have put themselves on the right side of the bubble for the time being, thanks to a nine-game win streak that has taken them to the top of the C-USA standings. That nine-game win streak includes ending Memphis’ marathon C-USA win streak, winning at UAB, and beating Tulsa by two touchdowns at home.

UTEP would be in a much more solid position if they had sealed the deal in games at Ole Miss (up 12 with 5:31 left, lost 91-81 in OT), Texas Tech (up six with 8:31 left, lost 86-78), and against New Mexico State (up seven with 6:20 left, lost 87-80). It’s safe to say that they don’t have a large margin for error, but if they can keep up this hot streak and navigate through two tough road games at Tulsa and Marshall, they’ll go into the conference tournament looking good.

Tulsa

Record: 19-7, 8-4 C-USA
RPI: 71
Best Wins: vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Colorado
Worst Losses: vs. Nebraska
Remaining Games: vs. UTEP, at Duke, at East Carolina, vs. SMU, at Memphis

For a while, Tulsa looked to be in a nice position to land an at-large bid, if not win the C-USA title outright.

And then they decided to start tripping themselves up. The Golden Hurricane have lost three of their last four games, and that poor run has seen them fall behind the above three in the conference standings and drop into the 70s in the latest RPI.

The win over Oklahoma State is a nice one to hang their hat on, and they don’t have any horrid losses (even the Nebraska one is respectable, given that it was on a neutral court against a power conference opponent), but they’ve hung a goose egg against C-USA’s other top teams, which is, well, not good at all. At this point, they’re looking NIT-bound, if they don’t win the automatic bid. And if they don’t snap out of this funk in time, the NIT might not even be in the cards.

Now, if they somehow beat Duke at Cameron, then that could change their fortunes in a hurry. That’s wishful thinking though, given how they’re playing right now.