Cedric Benson was rested for Week 17, but he'll be raring and ready to go against the Jets on Saturday afternoon.
The motivation and the confidence will certainly be there for the Jets, who more than took advantage of the opening that the Colts gave them in Week 16 (not to mention the Broncos and Steelers gave them by losing to some rather lowly opposition over the last several weeks), but it’s fair to say that we shouldn’t have expected anything less than what happened at the Meadowlands than what did, given that the Jets had everything at stake and the Bengals didn’t really have much reason or need to bring anywhere near their best.
The Jets didn’t have to contend with Cedric Benson, who was rested for Sunday’s game, and it was all the better for the Jets that Carson Palmer was absolutely woeful in the limited time that he was in the game (1 of 11, 0 yards, INT).
The Jets are motivated, the Jets are hungry, and more importantly, they have both the league’s top ranked rushing attack and the league’s top ranked defense, which can take you a long way even if you have a rookie quarterback at the helm like they do.
You can expect Palmer to be much sharper this time around, especially at home (62.9 comp. pct., 1,615 yards, 12 TD, 6 INT at home), and having a fresh Benson won’t hurt either (for what it‘s worth, he averaged 27 carries and 106.4 yards per game at home this season).
And the Bengals will be a lot sharper on the defensive side as well - the Bengals allowed only 47 points in their last five home games of the regular season, and they allowed only 107 points total in eight home games. And you can rest assured that, after being embarrassed by the Jets’ multi-pronged rushing attack on Sunday, there’ll be a little extra fire for Cincy’s defense, which came into Sunday allowing only 87.7 rushing yards per game before allowing 257 against the Jets.
The key for the Bengals will be to slow down the Jets’ ground game. If they can do that and force Mark Sanchez into having to throw a lot more, which turned out more disastrously than positively over the course of the season.
After putting up solid numbers during the Jets’ 3-0 start (in which he threw 31, 22, and 30 passes), Sanchez struggled mightily when he had to toss it around more. Over the last seven games of the season in which he threw more than 20 passes, he had six touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and he completed less than 50% of his passes (98 of 198). The Jets’ record in those games? 0-7.
Seems simple enough, right? Make the kid throw, and you’re well on your way to being around for another week.
The Bengals also have to take advantage of their opportunities against a stingy Jets defense, which allowed only 47 points in the Jets’ 5-1 run down the stretch.
In the end, it looks to be about defense, chewing up yards on the ground, and being efficient through the air. Week 17 might have been a nightmare, but we’ve seen what the Bengals can do at home against quality opposition. And just as up as the Jets were for a must-win game and the last game at the Meadowlands, I fully expect the Bengals to bring it in the rarest of rare occurrences that is the chance to host a playoff game in Cincinnati.
Prediction
Since there’s plenty of time between now and game time, you can expect there to be movement in the line for this one.
As of now, Cincinnati is favored by less than a field goal, which is a fine, fine number, if you’re looking to take some action on the home team.
As always, our lines are provided by SBG Global.
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So, how do we see this one shaking out? It’s relatively close throughout, and it likely won’t be the prettiest 60 minutes of action you’ll ever see, but in the end, the Bengals grind out the win and move on to the divisional round for the first time since 1990.
SCORE PREDICTION: CINCINNATI (-2 ½) 20, New York Jets 10
