There’s been no shortage of excitement up to this point in the NFL season, but Week 12 may be the most exciting week of the season yet.
Week 12 is highlight by the prospect of Indianapolis and New Orleans both seeing their perfect seasons ended by a couple of opponents more than ready, willing, and able to ruin the Thanksgiving weekend for the league’s two remaining undefeated teams.
However, there’s are several more pivotal games on the Week 12 schedule, highlighted by a Sunday night showdown between AFC North rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh that both teams need, along with the reeling Broncos hosting the Giants, who are coming off of a much-needed win over the Falcons last week.
Kevin gave his take on how he thinks some of this week’s key games will shake out in our NFL Week 12 preview, but below are my predictions for all 16 games this week.
As is the case with all of the rest of our picks, the Week 12 NFL Picks are brought to you by SBG Global.
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Will Tony Romo and the Cowboys roll on Turkey Day once again?
Thursday
Dallas Cowboys (-13 ½) vs. Oakland Raiders
Tony Romo took a knee to the back against the Redskins on Sunday, but he’ll be taking the snaps on Turkey Day. That’s bad, bad news for the Raiders - in three Thanksgiving Day games, Romo is 65 of 91 (71.4%) for 832 yards and nine scores. And as an added note, the three opponents have been brushed aside by a score of 106-22. That’s also bad, bad news for the Raiders.
Prediction: DALLAS 31, Oakland 10
Denver Broncos vs. New York Giants (-6 ½)
If there is a perfect time to catch the Broncos, it’s right now, but all the same, if there’s a time for the Broncos to start turning it around and breathe some life into their flagging season, it’s now, facing a team that has their own question marks.
However, for a team that’s completely lost its composure, even a game against the Raiders isn’t a gimme, much less a game against the Giants, who are not quite ‘back‘ but are on the right track. Eli Manning came through against the Falcons when the chips were down, and he’ll rise to the occasion in another game that the G-Men need to keep pace in the NFC East and in the NFC playoff race.
Prediction: New York 24, DENVER 20
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (-11)
Aaron Rodgers already had the good fortune of facing a banged-up, ineffective defense (well, only one of those, according to Eric Mangini), but the Packers’ road to 7-4 looks to be all the easier with the likely absences of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, who won’t get the opportunity to burn Green Bay’s own banged-up defense.
Prediction: GREEN BAY 35, Detroit 14
Sunday
Atlanta Falcons (-11 ½) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Even without Michael Turner, the Falcons were able to put up 31 points on the Giants, and even if Jason Snelling is once again toting the load for Atlanta on Sunday, the Bucs will be in for a long, long day.
Prediction: ATLANTA 38, Tampa Bay 19
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (-3)
The Bills came agonizingly close to pulling off a stunning road win on Sunday at Jacksonville, so there’s reason to feel positive about their chances to put a dent in Miami’s postseason hopes.
However, one glaring statistic against the Bills is that they’re 31st in the league against the run (166 rushing yards allowed per game). That matters more than just a little when the opponent is one of the league’s top rushing teams. I think Buffalo will come close again, but another big game from Ricky Williams will put the Dolphins over .500 for the first time this season.
Prediction: MIAMI 27, Buffalo 23
Cincinnati Bengals (-14) vs. Cleveland Browns
Despite being 7-3 (and a couple of Bengal-like bungles away from being 9-1), the Bengals know they can’t underestimate any opponent, especially after what transpired in the late going at Oakland on Sunday, and especially because this week’s opponent will be more than just a little fired up to take them down. Of course, when you have a defense that allowed a rookie quarterback to throw for 422 yards and five touchdowns, all the inspiration in the world might not save you.
Prediction: CINCINNATI 31, Cleveland 14
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3 ½)
After missing out on two glorious opportunities to thrust themselves into the thick of the AFC playoff race, the Texans need to beat the Colts on Sunday to stay above .500 and stay afloat in the wild-card race. After missing a late kick against the Colts and repeating the dubious feat against the Titans, I’d bank on the third time being the charm for Kris Brown if the Texans need him to come through on Sunday.
However, while I think this one will be every bit as close as Indy’s 20-17 win in Week 9, I’m rolling with the Colts to find a way to eke out yet another close win as they have recently and throughout this season.
Prediction: INDIANAPOLIS 28, Houston 24
Brett Favre and the Vikings are running away with the NFC North.
On the plus side, Jay Cutler gets to play during the day, which means he’ll likely put up better numbers than he has in recent weeks. Unfortunately, the outcome won’t be any different. Brett Favre and the Vikings are just clicking on all cylinders right now, and the Bears won’t be able to keep up, even if Cutler breaks out of his slump.
Prediction: Minnesota 34, CHICAGO 24
New York Jets (-3) vs. Carolina Panthers
Both the Jets and Panthers are on the outside looking in at 4-6, and while that will remain the case even past Week 12, the loser might as well start looking forward to next year.
With two-mistake prone quarterbacks, the gameplan for both teams should be to run the ball 90% of the time, as both teams rank in the top five in the league in least passing yards allowed but are further down the board in run defense (Jets 16th, Panthers 26th).
Prediction: NEW YORK JETS 24, Carolina 17
Philadelphia Eagles (-9) vs. Washington Redskins
There’s certainly some fight left in the Redskins, but their luck sure isn’t getting any better. How do you know you have bad luck? Besides losing in the final minutes at Dallas, Washington lost backup running back/fill-in starter Ladell Betts to a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee.
It’s not as if Betts would have made much of a difference in Philly though. The Eagles’ 27-17 win over the Redskins in Week 7 was well decided before halftime, and it’s hard to see Sunday’s meeting in Philly being anything less than a convincing win for the Eagles.
Prediction: PHILADELPHIA 30, Washington 10
St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Despite the presence of Kyle Boller under center for St. Louis, I do think this one will be much closer than the 28-0 blanking that the Seahawks laid on the Rams in Week 1. That being said, the result won’t be any different. There haven’t been a lot of good days for Matt Hasselbeck this season, but Sunday will be one.
Prediction: SEATTLE 23, St. Louis 13
San Diego Chargers (-13 ½) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ comeback win over the Steelers was nice and all, but it’ll be back to harsh, harsh reality this week. The Chargers are even better than they were when they blasted the Chiefs 37-7 in a must-win game in K.C. in Week 7, and the smackdown will be every bit as merciless this time around.
Prediction: SAN DIEGO 41, Kansas City 17
San Francisco 49ers (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The 49ers also have one of the league’s worst pass defenses, but that pass defense is two weeks removed from picking Jay Cutler off five times, and they have a run defense capable of slowing down Maurice Jones-Drew and putting David Garrard into the position of having to win the game with his arm, which is easier said than done.
Alex Smith has thrown three touchdown passes twice in the last five weeks, and while those two performances went unrewarded, feasting on the Jaguars’ pass defense (25th in yards allowed per game, tied for 24th in TD passes allowed) will be.
Prediction: San Francisco 27, Jacksonville 24
NFL rushing leader Chris Johnson and the Tennessee Titans have won four in a row.
Whether it’s Kurt Warner or Matt Leinart starting for the Cardinals on Sunday, it won’t really make a difference. The Titans are full of confidence, Vince Young is playing efficiently, and hey, Chris Johnson is running lights out week in, week out. Floundering AFC playoff hopefuls beware: the Titans are coming, and good luck stopping them.
Prediction: Tennessee 26, Arizona 21
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This one is a must-win for both teams. There’s little margin for the Steelers after back-to-back defeats dropped them to 6-4, and it’s even more of a must-win for the Ravens, as a sixth defeat in eight games could well be the fatal blow for their fading postseason hopes. But even with a beat-up Big Ben, I have to give the edge to the Steelers when it comes to who I think will come up bigger with their backs against the wall.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 17
Monday
New Orleans Saints (-3) vs. New England Patriots
Well, the Saints have to lose eventually, right?
You’ll see a number of prognosticators going with the tried and tested Patriots to come out on top on Monday night, but there’s a reason why the Saints are 10-0 in the first place.
Prediction: NEW ORLEANS 35, New England 31
