Boise State's Kellen Moore leads the nation in touchdown passes and passing efficiency heading into Friday night's game at Utah State.
The slate is highlighted by a quartet of showdowns in the MAC, but in case you’re looking for a little something else, there are two tilts involving two of the nation’s top teams, including one that could well prove to be a tricky road trip for one BCS hopeful.
As per usual, the lines in these picks are brought to you by SBG Global.
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Wednesday
Ball State vs. Central Michigan (-14 ½)
Despite their 1-9 record, I wouldn’t discount Ball State’s chances to keep this one competitive, as six or their nine loss have come by seven points or less and another was a tie game into the fourth quarter.
However, Ball State’s defense (108th in pass efficiency defense, 75th in rushing defense) isn’t nearly good enough to slow down Dan LeFevour, and their already-struggling offense is going up against one of the better defenses in the MAC.
David Letterman won’t be happy about how this one turns out, certainly.
Prediction: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 35, Ball State 17
Miami (Ohio) vs. Buffalo
When you’ve lost three straight heartbreakers like Buffalo has, you’re more than due for a win.
The Bulls will be without leading receiver Naaman Roosevelt due to a knee injury, but with the RedHawks having one of the nation’s worst run defenses, it was a wise idea to pound it on the ground time and again as it was.
Miami QB Zac Dysert struggled against Ohio last week, but he should perform much better against a Buffalo pass defense that’s ranked 65th in yards allowed.
Buffalo is due for some good fortune after their run of heartbreakers, but so is Miami, who’s 1-10 this season and has taken it on the chin more than a couple of times. This is the finale of what has been a rather forgettable season for the RedHawks, but I’m tipping them to end the season on a positive note and give the fans something to look forward to in 2010.
Prediction: MIAMI (OH) 28, Buffalo 21
Thursday
Oklahoma State (-18) vs. Colorado
After a nasty hit late in Saturday’s win over Texas Tech, Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson’s status for this one is uncertain, but being that it’s going to be his last home game, I’m fully expecting him to be out there for at least a little while.
Whoever’s taking the majority of the snaps for the Cowboys at QB, the only doubt in this one is about whether or not OSU will cover. Colorado might be hoping to catch the Cowboys looking ahead to a season finale at Oklahoma that could push them into an at-large BCS berth, but that won’t happen.
Oklahoma State should be able to run the ball with ease against the Buffs (who are 76th in the nation against the run), and their defense, which held Texas Tech to below 20 points for only the second time in their last 42 games, should shut the Colorado offense down like Iowa State did last week.
Prediction: OKLAHOMA STATE 27, Colorado 7
Friday
Bowling Green (-10 ½) vs. Akron
Last week, Akron allowed 49 unanswered points to Temple in a 56-17 loss at home. They might not allow nearly as many points or lose nearly as bad, but Tyler Sheehan (3,190 yards, 19 TD, 6 INT) and Freddie Barnes (nation’s leader in catches w/ 117, second in receiving yards with 1,285, second in touchdowns with 12) won’t take it easy on the overmatched Zips.
Prediction: BOWLING GREEN 31, Akron 15
Toledo (-19 ½) vs. Eastern Michigan
All that really matters here is that Eastern Michigan is not very good. Toledo’s no power themselves, but Eastern is more than a few steps behind its directional state school brethren right now.
At least the Eagles won’t have to worry about facing Toledo QB Aaron Opelt, but the end result is as inevitable as it is that the sun will rise in the east in the morning.
Prediction: TOLEDO 34, Eastern Michigan 14
Utah State vs. Boise State (-23 ½)
Utah State has an offense that could put up some points and keep this one interesting for a while, especially if they can avoid getting all turnover-happy like Idaho did last week, but unless something significantly changes with their defense, the Broncos aren’t going to have to sweat too much to reach 11-0. Some may well see this one as a look-ahead game for the Broncos, with Nevada coming to town next weekend, but I don’t see that being a problem.
Prediction: Boise State 45, UTAH STATE 24
