In my other college football picks post, I previewed and gave my picks for this week’s top 25 games, and below are my picks for 10 of the top games involving unranked teams this week.
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Arkansas (-7) vs. South Carolina
South Carolina at home? 3-0 in the SEC (expect to see this come up again next week ahead of their meeting against Florida). South Carolina on the road? 0-3 in the SEC. They played well at Georgia and made a good account of themselves (defensively, at least) at Alabama, but last week’s 31-13 loss at Tennessee was a mistake-filled step in the wrong direction.
All the same, home is where the good performances are for Ryan Mallett and Arkansas. Mallett is just 36 of 96 (37.5%) for 638 yards, three touchdowns, and one INT in three SEC road games, and Arkansas has put up 7, 20, and 17 points. On the other hand, he’s 45 of 76 (59.2%) for 682 yards, seven touchdowns, and one INT in two SEC home games in which the Razorbacks put up 41 and 44 points.
It’s worth mentioning that those road games came against some tough defenses in Alabama, Florida, and Ole Miss, but Mallett should be in line for another quality home performance, especially if the Razorbacks can open things up by taking advantage of South Carolina’s suspect run defense.
South Carolina should be able to move the ball against Arkansas’ defense, but it won’t keep them from going winless on the road in the SEC this season.
Prediction: Arkansas 34, South Carolina 27
Clemson (-8) vs. Florida State
Perhaps the official announcement of Mickey Andrews’ impending retirement could light a fire under the FSU defense to play well for their outgoing coordinator down the stretch, because every shootout isn’t going to end favorably.
The Seminoles have won two in a row to get back in the Atlantic Division race, thanks mostly to their offense, which got a much-needed big day from the ground game in last week’s 45-42 thriller over N.C. State. But, the Seminoles are allowing 36.8 points per game in ACC play, and that can be a recipe for disaster against a Clemson offense that
FSU has lost three in a row at Clemson, but the offense is in much better shape than in either of those losses, and it‘ll sure need to be if the defense doesn‘t step it up against C.J. Spiller and Co.
In previous picks this season, I picked FSU twice and came out a loser twice, so perhaps picking them to lose will have the opposite result.
Prediction: Clemson 35, FLORIDA STATE 31
Colorado vs. Texas A&M (-3)
So, are we nearing the end of the Dan Hawkins era at Colorado? The Buffs failed to build off of the upset of Kansas and have gone back to looking all sorts of bad, especially on offense, in losses to Kansas State and Missouri.
It could be that facing a Texas A&M defense that has given up more than its share of yards this season could jumpstart Colorado’s offense, but it’s sure hard to see that being the case. A&M has a poor run defense, but Colorado’s rushing offense is even worse, and while the Aggies have given up a lot of passing yards this season, Colorado’s sieve-like offensive line (28 sacks allowed) plays right into the hands of an A&M defense that has 23 sacks this season, led by Von Miller‘s 13.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M has put up 500+ yards in back-to-back games after their humiliating loss at Kansas State, torching Texas Tech for 559 and Iowa State for 501. And it’s been done in quite the balanced fashion, with 588 on the ground and 472 through the air.
Doesn’t look good for Colorado, does it? I’d like to have faith in the Buffs, but right now, they have to prove they’re worth having faith in.
Prediction: TEXAS A&M 38, Colorado 20
Idaho vs. Fresno State (-8)
Idaho has a showdown at Boise State come next week, but the 7-2 Vandals need to get past Fresno State to have that meeting mean something more than just bragging rights and a chance to knock the Broncos out of the running for a BCS bowl.
Both Idaho and Fresno State are still ‘technically’ in the mix for the WAC title, with both sporting 4-1 records. Idaho’s loss came at Nevada, while Fresno’s came at home against Boise.
With two high-powered offenses on display, this one should see a lot of yards and a lot of points. For Fresno State, it starts with the rushing offense led by the nation’s leading rusher, Ryan Mathews, and for Idaho, it’s their passing offense spearheaded by the duo of QB Nathan Enderle and WR Max Komar.
Idaho has gotten it done in close games in the fourth quarter time and again this season, from running out the clock to preserve a win at Northern Illinois, to two big defensive plays in the late going against Colorado State, to late touchdowns to beat San Jose State and Louisiana Tech. And I think they’ll find a way to beat the Bulldogs on Saturday as well, even if it comes down to who’s got the ball last.
Prediction: IDAHO 38, Fresno State 34
Kansas State vs. Kansas (-2 ½)
It’s been quite the quick fall for Kansas, who was 5-0 and ranked in the top 20 just a few weeks ago but is now staring at a three-game losing streak coming into their showdown with the rival Wildcats.
Todd Reesing was benched in last week’s loss at Texas Tech, and he’s in need of quite the redeeming performance in Manhattan after two forgettable. But when your team puts up 144 yards in three games (total, not average), the quarterback isn‘t the only someone that needs to step up on offense.
Bill Snyder was 13-4 against Kansas and won 12 of his last 13 against the Jayhawks in his first go-round with KSU from 1989-2005, but the Jayhawks won three in a row against the Ron Prince-led Wildcats.
Prediction: KANSAS 33, Kansas State 28
Michigan’s 4-0 start was nice, but it’s safe to say that the Wolverines has come down to earth. Getting beaten by Michigan State, Iowa, and Penn State is one thing, but allowing 31 second-half points to an Illinois team that hadn’t scored more than 17 against a real opponent is flat-out embarrassing.
Now, a loss against a Purdue team that racked up zero points, three turnovers, and 141 yards on offense in a 37-0 loss at Wisconsin last week? I don’t think the Michigan players (or fans either) want to think about that.
If Michigan does the smart thing and run the ball early and often (and hold on to it, more importantly), they can control the clock, keep the ball away from the sometimes-dangerous Joey Elliott and Ralph Bolden, and cover. Sounds simple enough in principle…
Prediction: MICHIGAN 27, Purdue 17
North Carolina (-10) vs. Duke
The Tar Heels did Georgia Tech a favor with their road upset of Virginia Tech, and they could put the Jackets even closer to the Coastal Division title by knocking off one of their remaining challengers, who are a surprising 3-1 in the ACC after back-to-back-to-back wins over N.C. State, Maryland, and Virginia.
The Tar Heels were ripped apart by the only time they faced a top passer this season (Florida State’s Christian Ponder - 33-40, 395 yards, 3 TD), and as it happens, Duke’s Thaddeus Lewis is in the form of his career right now, with 1,528 yards and 10 touchdowns in ACC play.
UNC has won five straight against Duke, but the last four have all come down to the end (or overtime). I’m not only expecting a close one, but I expect a due Duke team to make up for those gut-wrenching losses with a win that will keep them in the mix in the Coastal.
Prediction: DUKE 27, North Carolina 24
UCLA (-4) vs. Washington
UCLA dropped their fifth game in a row last weekend at Oregon State, but they showed some real signs of life by coming back from a 19-3 deficit in the fourth before allowing the Beavers to score the winning touchdown in the final minute.
Washington has lost a couple of close ones on the road at Notre Dame and Arizona State, but if QB Jake Locker (game-time decision - thigh) isn’t able to go, that’ll put a real dent into the Huskies’ chances to earn Steve Sarkisian his first road win. As is, I was going to pick UCLA anyway.
Prediction: UCLA 24, Washington 17
Wyoming hung with Texas for a half earlier this season and led at Utah well into the fourth last week, and with bowl eligibility still a realistic goal, the Cowboys have to be taken seriously this week.
Wyoming has struggled offensively in the last couple of games, scoring only 10 points total after averaging 32.3 in in a three-game win streak. If they can move the ball against BYU, this one could be up for grabs into the fourth.
Prediction: BYU 31, Wyoming 16
Sunday
San Jose State vs. Nevada (-14)
Nevada is first in the nation in rushing offense and is averaging 403 rushing yards per game during their current five-game win streak.
San Jose State is 118th in the nation in rushing defense. Oh. Dear.
The Spartans played Utah close in a 24-14 loss, and they lost a 29-25 heartbreaker at home to 7-2 Idaho, but I don’t see things going well at all against a Nevada team that’s absolutely rolling offensively right now.
Prediction: NEVADA 41, San Jose State 24
