Michael Turner has given fantasy owners a weekly boost by scoring at least one touchdown in each of his last five games, but even they have to be disappointed by his overall numbers after Turner ran for 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns in his first season in Atlanta last year.
Turner has seven touchdowns this season, but that’s about the only bright spot for him so far. He has hit the 100-yard mark only once thus far this season after doing so eight times last season, including 200-yard games to start and end the regular season. All told, he’s averaging only 3.4 yards per carry this season, and he’s run for only 80 yards on 31 carries in the Falcons‘ last two games.
So, why has Turner had such a drop-off thus far this season?
Is he beat up? He had 394 carries last season (376 in the regular season, 18 in the postseason), logging 20+ carries in 12 games, 25+ in eight games, and 30+ in three games. That’s a load for any NFL back, but it could be especially taxing for a guy who had only 228 carries in his first four seasons and wasn’t used to taking that kind of beating.
Is he just that much of a boom or bust guy? That’s a fine question.
Turner, who had the aforementioned eight games with 100+ that included performances of 220 and 208 yards, was held below four yards per carry 10 times, including Atlanta’s playoff loss at Arizona.
This season, Turner has already run for 65 yards or less four times after doing so five times last season, and he’s averaged more than four yards per carry in only one game this season. Even that performance (22 carries, 97 yards, 3 TD vs. San Francisco in Week 5) needed a 33-yard run to surpass that mark.
Is it the absence of speedy backup Jerious Norwood? Norwood has been sidelined first by concussions and then by a hip injury (which looks likely to keep him out tonight against New Orleans), and he’s been limited to just 19 carries in four games. Norwood wasn’t exactly running the ball 10-15 times a game, but his presence does switch things up in the backfield.
So, which one is it? It’s a fair assessment to say a little of each, and they‘ve combined to make for a frustrating sophomore slump for Turner. But everyone is prone to slumps, and given Turner’s ability to break out in a big way at any given time, you know he’s going to break out of his funk soon enough.
And when he’s hot, it’s good news for the Falcons thus far. When Turner has run for 100+, the Falcons are a perfect 9-0.
But when he’s cold, it’s bad, bad news. When he’s been held to 65 yards or less, Atlanta is 3-6.
So, it’s safe to say that he needs to get going sooner rather than later, because the better he runs, the less pressure there is on Matt Ryan, which I made note of in my Saints-Falcons preview.
Will he get it going tonight? He’ll have a tough test against the Saints’ tough run defense, but if he can, it will not only be a welcome sight for fantasy owners, but it could also be a major turning point in Atlanta’s season.
