We’re only in Week 8, but you could go as far as saying that the New Orleans Saints could well wrap up the NFC South for all intents and purposes with a win over Atlanta tonight.
The 6-0 Saints hold a two-game lead over the 4-2 Falcons coming into tonight, with the yo-yo that is the Carolina Panthers at 3-4 after yesterday’s win at Arizona.
A Falcons win would not only leave Indianapolis as the only undefeated team in the league, but it’d also inject a little suspense into an NFC South race that has the makings of a Saints runaway.
Next week, the Saints host Carolina, and with road trips to St. Louis and Tampa afterwards, New Orleans is looking at a 10-0 mark before hosting New England on the 30th. After that massive Monday nighter, the Saints finish with Washington (road), Dallas (home), Tampa Bay (home), Atlanta (road), and Carolina (road). Even with a little margin for error, it’s easy to pencil in 13 wins (at least) with that remaining schedule.
That leaves the Falcons needing to get red-hot starting tonight, as the next four weeks will determine whether they’re in the hunt for a division title or a wild card. After hosting Washington on Sunday, Atlanta goes on the road to face the Panthers and the Giants. If these next four games produce only one or two wins, then their best hope will be the wild card.
The Panthers? Don’t get me started. If their inconsistencies don’t trip them up, their schedule will.
Even if the Saints‘ unbeaten season comes to an end tonight, they still have to be considered the favorite in the division, but if there’s to be any hint of drama in the NFC South race, it’s on the Falcons to step up tonight and deliver a winning performance.
Will that happen though? Given the way the Falcons have played on the road against better opponents this season, no. They were shut down offensively (58 yards rushing, 257 yards total) and gashed defensively (445 yards allowed) in a 26-10 loss at New England in Week 3,
Week 3 against New England? 58 yards rushing, 257 total yards, 10 points offensively, 445 total yards allowed defensively in a 26-10 loss.
Last week’s 37-21 loss at Dallas? Torched by Tony Romo (21-29, 311 yards, 3 TD), Michael Turner ran for only 50 yards on 18 carries, and Matt Ryan couldn’t pick up the slack (19-35, 198 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT).
Last season’s showdown in the Superdome was a back-and-forth thriller that saw six lead changes – three in a seven-minute stretch in the fourth quarter – in a 29-25 Saints win, but if the Falcons are to be in it at that point, some things are going to have to change with the numbers above and below.
Michael Turner has run for only 80 yards on 31 carries in his last two games, and when he’s not doing well, Ryan is put under extreme pressure. That hasn’t worked out well in the last couple of games – Ryan is completing only 55.8% of his passes (38 of 68) for 383 yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions.
The Saints have a rushing defense that is allowing only 92.3 yards per game, and their pass defense has a league-leading 13 interceptions (six by Darren Sharper, who’s returned three for touchdowns).
The defense will also need to be much better against a Saints team that’s averaging 39.7 points and 427.3 yards per game and scored 43 points in the final 30:02 in last week’s monster comeback at Miami.
Atlanta is 27th against the pass, 21st against the run, and 23rd in total defense.
New Orleans has Drew Brees, is third in the league in rushing offense, first in total offense, and first in scoring. And their six wins? All by double digits.
Doesn’t really stack up too well for the Falcons, does it?
For the sake of gravity, the Saints will likely lose at some point, but it won’t be tonight (or anytime soon, it appears). The Falcons may give the Saints a better run than others have, but in the end, the Saints will come up perfect sevens at the end of the night.
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As for my prediction, you can find that below.
Prediction: NEW ORLEANS (-11 ½) 38, Atlanta 24
