After a rough week two of bad calls and poor suggestions, I vow to bring you the best 15 plays, and at the very worst, to come out of week three with a winning record.
It’s always tough to gauge if/when guys like Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck will last the game, and it’s also hard to predict when coaches are going to confuse you by sitting Wes Welker at the last minute.
Paying close attention to player and injury updates is a must to keep the upper hand in your league, so allow The Red Zone Report to give you some guidance.
Looking to this Start/Sit column is just the beginning. Take the extra step and review each week with in-depth explanation and analysis as to why certain players broke-out or failed to live up to your expectations.
It all starts with week two’s review, and concludes with the updated NFL Quick Hits before Sunday’s games. For now, check out the five guys to give a try, the five to ride the pine, and the five to stash and hide.
Quick “start” hints: Always, ALWAYS start Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson and the Texans passing offense is back, and be wary of the early success of Mark Sanchez. I love the guy, but he’s due a poor game. An angry Tennessee Titans just might be ready to give it to him.
Start
Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins
Washington gets its second favorable match-up, and if Jason Campbell can resemble an NFL quarterback for the second week in a row, Portis should be free to roam against a very weak Lions defense.
Mike Bell put up over 140 rushing yards on them in week one, and after Adrian Peterson put up 92 on Sunday, it’s a safe bet Portis should be in line for 80-120 yards. Oh, and after not scoring in his first two games, write it down as a guarantee that Portis finally hits paydirt.
Prediction: 22 att, 124 yards, 2 TD, 2 rec, 16 yds, 0 TD
Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings
I give up. I am officially buying into the Brett Favre/Percy Harvin love-hype, and I am promoting this damn thing.
Favre loves Harvin, and Harvin loves Favre. The two have hooked-up for eight catches and two touchdowns in the first two games, and they’re going up against a 49ers’ defense that hasn’t allowed a rusher to top 35 yards in two games this season.
That either means Adrian Peterson will get shut down and the offense goes nowhere, or it means Brett Favre finally gets unleashed.
Either way, the odds are in Harvin’s favor. In fact, throw Favre in for a solid day, as well.
Prediction: 6 rec, 76 yds, 1 TD
Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
True, Willis McGahee is stealing the touchdowns, and he was the guy Baltimore was riding against Denver, but it’s hard to sit the explosive and versatile Rice against the Browns’ porous rush defense.
Flacco should be able to attack their secondary all day, allowing both of Baltimore’s top runners to have solid days. Look for Rice to finally get the bigger chunk of the pie, as he puts in his second 100+ yard performance, and finally hits paydirt.
Prediction: 17 att, 114 yds, 1 TD, 4 rec, 37 yds, 0 TD
Felix Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys
While we are now well aware that this is the “Marion Barber Show” when Barber is healthy, we also have learned that Jones is as explosive as last year advertised, and he definitely has a role in this offense.
What makes Jones even better for week three? How about Marion Barber nursing a quad strain on the sidelines, or at the worst, being slowed by the injury.
Jones was very solid against a good Giants defense, with seven carries for 96 yards and a touchdown. While his touches won’t be easy to predict every week, be sure to take advantage while Barber is hampered by his quad injury.
Prediction: 16 att, 123 yds, 1 TD, 2 rec, 46 yds, 0 TD
Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints
Okay, so you drafted the wrong Saints running back. And even if you didn’t go with Pierre Thomas, you’re now running with Mike Bell.
Well, what happens when Bell hurts his knee and Thomas is barely coming off of a knee injury of his own? You play the Saints only healthy back, that’s what happens.
I know it’s hard to trust Bush after all the hurt he’s caused you late in your season over the years, but now is the time to throw caution to the wind. Start Bush in what looks like a potentially huge performance.
Prediction: 15 att, 78 yds, 1 TD, 7 rec, 56 yds, 1 TD
Sit
Thomas Jones, RB, New York Jets
It’s not that I fear the Titans solid rush defense (even though I do), but the way Rex Ryan calls games and divides the carries, Jones simply isn’t a RB1 these days, and could struggle to consistently get the carries he needs to top 100 yards.
He should still get enough work to get close to 10 points, but don’t expect elite stats against a solid Titans rush defense.
Prediction: 15 att, 67 yds, 0 TD, 1 rec, 5 yds, 0 TD
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
This seems like a reach, I know, but maybe not quite as much given the eye-popping numbers.
Rodgers has yet to throw a pick this season, but with two measly one-touchdown games, Rodgers is starting to make us re-think “sophomore slump” possibilities.
Rodgers was sacked 34 times in all of 2008, and has endured 10 sacks, as well as constant pressure already in 2009. That’s through just two games.
Throw in the fact that his running game isn’t helping and he just lost Chad Clifton for an indefinite amount of time, and the St. Louis Rams growing defense (allowed nine points on Sunday) is kind of scary.
Call me crazy, but sitting Rodgers for a different decent alternative could be the best move you make all week.
Prediction: 18-34, 298 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 4 att, 33 yds, 0 TD
Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
I know what you’re thinking. Parker looks lonely on your fantasy bench, you have two injured starters, and Parker is still getting the bulk of the carries in Pittsburgh.
So, pick up Donald Brown. Trade for Fred Jackson. Do what needs to be done. Just don’t start this guy.
Yes, he could come through against the Bengals so-so defense, but with huge strides through the first two games, even a solid running back could be suggested to sit-out against Cincy.
Take a chance on someone else. All you’ll get with Parker is five points or less.
Prediction: 14 att, 40 yds, 0 TD, 1 rec, 6 yds, 0 TD
Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver Broncos
After crossing my fingers in week one and fully promoting him in week two, I finally have come to the realization that it’s not 2008, and that it really does matter that Jay Cutler is gone.
Kyle Orton is coming around just fine, but with an on-going rotation at receiver, Marshall simply isn’t on the field enough to establish the chemistry needed to be an elite option.
He’s a low-end WR3 at best right now, and you deserve better.
Prediction: 5 rec, 47 yds, 0 TD
Julius Jones, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Let’s go ahead and call it like we see it: Week one was the facade, not last week’s 35-yard effort against the 49ers.
It’s probably true that Jones will only go as far as his passing game guides him, and with a tough match-up with the Chicago defense, it’s a safe bet he won’t be going very far in week three.
Prediction: 16 att, 55 yds, 0 TD, 2 rec, 14 yds, 0 TD
Sleepers
Mario Manningham, WR, New York Giants
While he’s probably not a full-fledged sleeper anymore, he’s also still not quite ready to be counted on each week.
However, Eli Manning loves both Manningham and Steve Smith, and without Domenik Hixon garnering many targets, Manningham’s value figures to increase going forward.
Prediction: 7 rec, 88 yds, 1 TD
Nate Burleson, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Burleson has established himself as a candidate for your roster and weekly WR3 consideration, as he’s registered over 100 yards on 11 receptions, as well as one touchdown through the first two weeks.
Having a healthy Matt Hasselbeck is probably detrimental to his success, but I like what I’ve see so far. He’s available in 53 percent of Yahoo! leagues, so get after him if you’re hurting the loss of Anthony Gonzalez, or are disappointed in Braylon Edwards and Brandon Marshall.
Prediction: 6 rec, 74 yds, 0 TD
Kevin Kolb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, Kolb threw three picks and the Eagles lost to the Saints. And yes, once Donovan Mcabb is healthy, Kolb will find himself re-attached to a clipboard.
But week three, oh, my friends, the possibilities week three brings.
While McNabb’s status is still unclear, Kolb has already been named the starter for week three “if” McNabb sits for the second week in a row.
Well, 391 yards and two touchdowns tells me Andy Reid is comfortable going up against the 0-2 Chiefs without McNabb. The question is, are you?
Prediction: 26-36, 297 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT (if he starts)
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
Yes, he’s 0-2, has a horrid interception-to-touchdown ratio, and needed his head coach to verbally “back” him heading into week three.
But Stafford’s got spunk. And Calvin Johnson.
He still hasn’t won a game, but there are small things he does well that points to him progressing, especially if he can connect deep with “Megatron” against the Redskins.
Prediction: 17-33, 255 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Peyton Hillis, RB, Denver Broncos
Josh McDaniels continues to amaze me.
Despite under-utilizing Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Peyton Hillis, he still finds the Broncos at 2-0.
Remarkable, yes. But how long can this go on?
Hillis found his way to a touchdown from two yards out, but did little else other than block during the rest of Denver’s 27-6 win over the Browns.
While that isn’t sure to change, I like Hillis’s touches near the goal-line to only increase, as you will find he could be a paydirt king if the offense continues to progress.
Prediction: 3 att, 22 yds, 1 TD, 2 rec, 16 yds, 0 TD
