Like any other writer, I kick myself when I see a writer like Brandon Funston (and other Yahoo! Sports writers) come up with a smartly-themed piece like “10 Players I Hate More Than You”.
Not because it’s ingenious or brings in traffic, but more because I love to hate on certain players, and it pains me to see certain writers having the write to a title as indulging as said title.
Alas, I digress.
I don’t necessarily hate any of the 10 players listed below, and in fact, I have even recommended drafting them in several rankings or articles before.
However, it’s impossible to ignore certain aspects of their team or their own personal attributes that could effect their 2009 fantasy performance, and in turn, your fantasy playoff hopes.
I won’t go over everything, just the soft spots, but remember to always pay attention to schedule match-ups, division opponents, and the overall “suckiness” level of your potential player’s supporting cast.
As for what a “bust” means, it’s open to interpretation.
My opinion on the word is that the player doesn’t live up to the hype, should have been drafted three to four rounds later than the spot you grabbed him at, or his age/injuries can or will kill their/your season.
10. Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals
There’s plenty to love about Warner. He’s a feel-good story, is extremely accurate, and has two of the best receivers in the game at his constant disposal.
However, he’s 38, coming off of surgery, lost Todd Haley, and has a re-dedicated Matt Leinart waiting in the wings.
If you can ignore the age/injury concern, then there isn’t a whole lot preventing Warner from becoming your second or third-round quarterback find, but analyzing things a little more closely suggests you could either wait longer, or just stay away, altogether.
I’d still take Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers over Warner, as they are young, have great offenses, and still have youth on their side.
9. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
Don’t get me wrong, I love LT.
I still think he’s “got it” and all that jazz, but with the depth at running back and the progress of Philip Rivers, he has bust written all over him.
He’s 30 this year, will definitely be sharing the load with the franchise-tagged Darren Sproles, and will see his high-powered offense passing more than ever.
LT will still be a huge factor inside the 20 and at the goal-line and probably could still do some damage in the passing game, but his rushing yards aren’t likely to climb much higher than 1,200 ever again.
There’s always the chance the Chargers run him into the ground one last time, but for the money they’re paying Sproles, it just wouldn’t make any sense.
Another thing to note: LT hasn’t finished a season healthy for the past two seasons.
8. Steve Slaton, RB, Houston Texans
Slaton is a dynamic back that can kill the opposition in a number of ways. But goal-line running is no longer one of them.
With nine rushing touchdowns last year, Slaton was extremely productive as a rookie, but apparently not good enough to get goal-line duties for the 2009 season.
He’ll get yards and be active in the offense, but with Gary Kubiak giving the early nod to Chris Brown for goal-line duties, Slaton could under-perform for where he’s been drafted at.
7. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams
I’ve been severely anti-Rams players for three years now, and thank you for the refresher Bob Dylan, but times are not’a changin’.
Not yet, anyways.
Yes, S-Jax will be the focus of the offense, and yes, Steve Spagnuolo will lead his team with a defensive mind-set and a run-first offense.
Call it Giants 2.0, or you know, the red-headed step-child of Tom Coughlin.
Call it what you will, but buying into the Jackson hype could be a huge mistake, considering it’s the same story Rams coaches have been pushing for the past two seasons.
Forget about Jackson’s huge 2006 numbers. They’re long gone.
All you have to look forward to is a season of nagging injuries, no help from the passing game, and spotty elite performances.
6. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Like Jackson, Gore has been more hype than productivity for the past two seasons, as he and S-Jax continue to live off of their 2006 performances.
Mike Singletary has expressed a new-found determination to the running game, however, it’s tough to believe it when we’ve been hearing it since Gore went-off for 1,600 yards three years ago.
Without a good balance on offense, defenses will key-in on Gore and shut him down like they’ve been doing, and nagging injuries should continue to affect Gore’s workload.
Is there a lot to like? Yes, but it may not be enough to keep him from being a bust for the third straight year.
5. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
The guy has put up three 1,400+ yard and 10+ touchdown seasons out of his last four tries. Believe me, there’s almost no reason not to love him.
In fact, one could argue for him as the best fantasy (and all-around) receiver in the game, and possibly even more-so after his insane 2008 post-season display.
But when you lose your offensive coordinator (Todd Haley), hear rumors of a more balanced offense, and your quarterback is 38, there is at least slight cause for concern.
Still, even these things aren’t enough to drop him further than third in your receiver rankings. That is, unless you’re a fan of someone other than Arizona in the NFC West.
However, his face on the Madden 2010 cover raises an interesting issue.
Is he (and possibly the Cardinals) due a cursed season of injuries and/or poor play?
That all depends. If you’re even remotely paranoid about the curse, or actually pay attention to past cover-boy’s history, there’s reason to fear Fitz’s 2009 prospects.
But, like all players on this list, his candidacy to be a bust should be taken with a grain of salt.
4. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
I have conducted over 20 mock drafts over the course of the off-season, and over 10 of them have Matt Ryan going rather high, before the mid-rounds, and often before the likes of Tony Romo.
Needless to say, the Tony Gonzalez hype and Michael Turner’s “lessened work-load” rumors are going to fantasy owner’s heads.
The truth is, Ryan should easily improve on his solid rookie numbers. He should be able to hit 20 scores and could notch oer 3,700 passing yards.
But anything beyond that would be a bit of a reach, while anything below 20 scores and 3,700 yards would make him a bust for where he’s being targeted.
If you can get him late, however, change his label to a steal.
3. Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins
If you owned Portis through the first half of 2008, you garnered the envy of all of your league, as Portis started hot and ran for seven touchdowns.
However, his fade down the stretch (ony two scores), hinders his potential and outlook for 2009, as does the rumor that Ladell Betts will be stealing touches.
And those are more than just rumors.
According to Jim Zorn and co., Portis broke down last year due to defenses cueing in on him, mostly because of an inept pass attack.
With Jason Campbell under center, that probably won’t change much, forcing Zorn to open things up with Betts as his short yardage back, and if he performs well early, he could see goal-line touches, as well as extensive third-down duty.
2. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Gonzo is the man, granted, but at 33, he’s got too much change coming at him way too fast to not miss a beat.
Seriously, even if he is a bust in 2009, you have to know two things: First, to give the guy a break. He hasn’t been on a competitive team in years, and at this point in his career, he’ll do whatever it takes to sniff a Super Bowl shot, even if it means less targets.
Secondly, and more importantly, it will be almost impossible for him to come close to his Kansas City production.
Atlanta’s rush attack is advanced and extremely effective, while Roddy White and Michael Jenkins are good enough to render Gonzo as the third option in the passing game.
Learning a new offense and jelling with teammates also comes into play, especially when it’s an unfriendly offense to tight ends like the one OC Mike Mularkey runs.
Buyer beware.
1. Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins
Brown is definitely a great athlete in an offense that will fully utilize his skills.
The problem? He hasn’t really proven his worth.
Oh, and Ricky Williams has been extended throuh 2010, meaning he’ll be splitting carries with Mr. Mary Jane for this season, and quite likely the next.
This doesn’t kill Brown’s stock, but his injury history and mis-leading stats sure do.
Brown has regularly been going in the middle rounds (3-5), but at times is reached for even a little earlier.
With only one 1,000 yard and 10+ touchdown season under his belt, people are over-hyping Brown due to Miami’s ridiculous 11-5 season last year.
The Dolphins are almost assured a bit of a drop-off, and with more focus on developing their young receivers, Brown could be taking more of a back-seat than some would care to believe.
If he can be had from rounds four and on, he could prove to be a solid steal, but any earlier, and you’ll be tremendously disappointed.
Honorable Mentions
While there are plenty of players that could arguably make this list (or even replace some on it), all of the 10 players above definitely provide enough concern to at least think twice about drafting them.
As for the rest of the league, avoiding players from the Browns, Bengals, Raiders, Rams, Lions, and 49ers as much as possible should limit your failures or possibility of bringing on a “bust”.
Players such as Braylon Edwards, Chad Ochocinco, and Ryan Grant (arguably) earned their stripes as busts in 2008, but could all have huge rebound seasons.
