Wouldn’t it only be fitting that the program who set the bar non-BCS success is the one that becomes the first non-BCS school in the BCS era to have a national title shot?
It’s far too early to start booking flights to Pasadena, but after stunning Oklahoma in their season opener on Saturday, the table is set for BYU to be in serious contention for the right to play Florida a trip to the national title game if they run the table.
Their national championship in 1984 might have been considered controversial because none of the teams that they beat on the way to their 12-0 season were ranked in the final polls. But if everything falls in place for the Cougars this season, there won’t be any reason to dispute their legitimacy, because if there was ever a perfect path for a non-BCS school, the Cougars have it.
The marquee win of marquee wins: It doesn’t matter how it came about, but the Cougars have a regular season win that trumps any that their predecessors had.
Utah in 2004? Utah beat three BCS conference opponents in Texas A&M, Arizona, and North Carolina, but they didn’t face a single ranked opponent in going 12-0.
Boise State in 2006? Boise State didn’t face a team that was ranked in the regular season, although Oregon State and Hawaii would go on to finish with top-25 rankings.
Last year’s Utah team had wins over Oregon State (the week after the Beavers had beaten USC), #11 TCU, and #14 BYU.
Besides, it’s worth saying that, even with Bradford in, BYU was playing well enough to give themselves a chance to win. And even if Bradford was still in, and the Cougars kept it close the whole way in defeat, it’d have been the kind of eye-catching performance that could’ve parlayed into them earning a BCS berth even with one loss on their ledger.
The perfect schedule: Besides having the win over Oklahoma in the bag, BYU has the chance to rack up three more wins over ranked opponents through the remainder of the regular season, and better yet, they get to face all three of those teams at home.
In two weeks, they host Florida State (currently #18 in the AP Poll, #19 in the coaches’ poll), and from there, they get to host conference showdowns against current #17 TCU (October 24) and archrival Utah (November 28), who’s #19 in the AP Poll and #18 in the coaches’ poll.
Tough? Check. Extremely favorable? Check and check. Offers the chance to move up more on their own merits than by virtue of chaos above them? Check.
An edge over their predecessors: If BYU is still unbeaten when the first BCS rankings come out, one can assume that they’d be in a better position than Boise State (14th) and Louisville’s (17th) 2004 teams, Boise State’s 2006 team (15th), Hawaii in 2007 (18th), and Utah in 2008 (11th).
BYU is in a far better position out of the gate than any of those teams, and the 2004 Utah team that was 7th in the initial BCS rankings.
To compare to that team, Utah was ranked #20 in the AP poll and #21 in the coaches’ poll to start the ‘04 season, and they moved up to #17/#16 after opening with a win over Texas A&M. Though BYU started this season ranked lower than that Utah team (#24 in the coaches’ poll), the win over Oklahoma could propel them into the top 15.
If BYU is still unbeaten when the first BCS rankings are released, the Cougars could well be in a similar, if not better, position than Utah in 2004.
But what separates BYU from that Utah team is what each had left on their schedule afterwards. The Utes didn’t have anyone of note, which didn’t really offer up the opportunity to help their standing all that much, but the Cougars do, in TCU and Utah.
The potential chaos above them: Winning, of course, is the best way to help yourself move up. But along with having a chance to add a few more marquee wins to their resume, the mass of matchups involving the teams ahead of them only serves to aid their hopes.
Already in the first week, along with BYU’s win over Oklahoma, there was Alabama beating Virginia Tech, Boise State beating Oregon, and Oklahoma State beating Georgia.
This coming Saturday, USC goes to Ohio State, who has a trip to Penn State later this season. Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State all play each other. Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU all play each other. Cal plays at Oregon and at home against USC. Georgia Tech has North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Georgia on their schedule.
Factor in potential upsets along the way, and if BYU keeps winning from here on through November 28, they could have a chance at the perfect commemoration of their historic 1984 title.
What does work against them, however, is the fact that perhaps Florida and Texas go undefeated, or Florida and USC, or Texas and USC, or perhaps one of those teams and Penn State. Or worse yet, a one-loss team from that bunch, or dare I say it, a one-loss Oklahoma team, beats an undefeated BYU team to a spot in the title game. Seven of the first 11 seasons of the BCS’ existence, a one-loss team has played for the national title, so the chances are more than fair.
And if the latter of the above two possibilities happens, well…let‘s cross that bridge if we get to it. .
So what about Boise State? The Broncos are ahead of the Cougars in the polls, and they had their own big win. As long as Boise remains undefeated, their chances can’t be discounted either, and perhaps sometime in November, it could be the Broncos’ credentials getting broken down in this space. Or perhaps TCU. Or Utah.
