Should you take this guy...

...or this guy?

So, you’re in one of those last-minute leagues, or the type that waits about a week before the season starts. Good for you. Not just because you had the patience and will-power to keep yourself from joining 15 leagues, but because now you know everything you need to know to draft the best possible team.

That is, until the day after your draft, when you see Matt Cassel or Matt Schaub on the shelf with a leg injury. Oh, I’m sorry, that’s what all the owners were kicking themselves over last week.

Still, all the planning in the world can’t prepare you for fantasy football’s most coveted, yet dreaded pick: The first selection.

Gone are the days of a sure-fire pick like LaDainian Tomlinson, or if we’re really digging for gold back in the day, possibly Terrell Davis or Emmitt Smith.

No, these days it gets much more analytical. Crack the numbers, research the schedules, and find any random stat that could possibly separate Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner a little bit more than you had already distanced them, yourself.

But you’ve already put in the time, the tears, and the stressed-out, pulled, strained muscles. So, I’m here to tell you to relax.

You know the numbers, the teams, and the players. You’ve digested all the information you can possibly afford to without losing all three of your daily meals at the same time before you ready yourself for sleep.

So, instead of fighting over who to select with that “lucky” first selection, maybe it’s time to think about who not to select.

But before we can even get to that, you have to know your league, know your opponents, and know your scoring system.

The Pre-Requisites

If you know your league and opponents, you already have a leg up, and can accurately decide what stud quarterback or receiver you’re targeting should be available in round two. That way, you can grab the best running back available and never look back.

However, without that edge, you face the possibility of reaching for a player you may not need to reach for.

To prevent this, always draft based on your scoring system first. If your league is quarterback heavy, draft Drew Brees or Tom Brady with the top pick, with Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers (he is rising big-time), or Philip Rivers coming in as close possibilities.

If it’s wide-receiver heavy, the consensus pick is Larry Fitzgerald, with Andre Johnson and Randy Moss stepping in as excusable alternatives.

Plain and simple, no matter what style of league or number of participants, those are the ONLY non-running back players you should be considering with the first pick.

When talking about value, potential, and past production, no other players come close.

The Running Backs

Like I said before, this decision ultimately comes down to more of a “who not to pick” line of thinking.

You know what you’re getting with Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner-kind of.

Peterson will get you 1,600+ yards, over 10 scores, not many receiving yards, and a load of fumbles.

However, the addition of Brett Favre gives his stock a slight boost, as the presence of the future Hall of Famer should keep the opposition honest, leaving the possibility of 75-yard scampers like AP had against Houston on Monday night a very consistent and real possibility.

As for Turner, it’s to be expected that his carries will climb down, which should cause his yards to dip some, but probably not as much as you’d think.

Just think Larry Johnson a few years ago. He broke out with a huge 1,700-yard season, and people thought he had run too hard, but then watched him do the same thing the next season.

Remember that.

Those are the contenders-your main guys you’ll be racking your brain over which one to select.

Forget about DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and anyone else not named Maurice Jones-Drew.

Williams had an awesome 2008, but that’s unlikely to repeat itself especially due to his size, as well as the splitting of carries with the equally impressive (albeit nicked-up), Jonathan Sewart.

Westbrook is likely to see his touches at lest slightly reduced due to injury history, age, and rookie LeSean McCoy.

Jackson and Gore are both tempting, but neither have done anything close to their explosive 2006 seasons, don’t get any help from the passing game, and are constantly playing with nagging injuries.

The only upside to them? They will be run into the ground, and are the sole source of offense for their respective teams. Just look at their 2007 and 2008 numbers to now that being the only elite fantasy player on your team isn’t necessarily a good thing.

AP vs. Turner “The Burner”

I could have saved you all of this time by just saying, “Hey, it’s a toss-up.”

But where’s the fun in that? Besides, when something is as simple as that, it’s usually necessary to back it up with some sort of, you know, explanation.

Consider it explained.

It’s AP up against Turner, and in all reality, it’s the Vikings offense versus the Falcons offense.

While it’s hard not to like Matt Ryan’s new air attack with a contractually happy Roddy White and a fresh, reborn Tony Gonzalez, that hardly matches a team rejuvenated with a veteran presence like Brett Favre.

Even if Favre doesn’t light it up, he should take enough focus off the ground game for Peterson to post his best numbers yet. And quite frankly, that’s saying a lot.

True, Peterson fumbled the ball 9 times in 2008, but he only lost four of them (only four, right?), and averaged over 110 rushing yards per game.

Throw in 10 100+ yard rushing games, including five over 130 yards, and you have a consistent , elite threat-not to mention the league’s leading rusher.

Turner, on the other hand, ran more and had less yards, as well as averaged less yards rushing per game.

He also was blown away by the unimpressive receiving stats of Peterson, while only catching six (SIX) passes all season.

Oh, and while he didn’t come close to touching AP’s 9 fumbles, he only lost two less than Peterson did.

After taking a long look at it, there is literally no reason to take any other back other than AP, that is, unless you believe MJD is going to make the jump to the top spot (he could).

So, unless you’re in a WR or QB-heavy league, AP is your man. Or, you know, you could just trade your pick.