As is the case every year, there’s a number of talented NFL newcomers who will make an immediate impact with their teams, and at the same time, with your fantasy team.
While there might not be someone who breaks out like an Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, or Steve Slaton, there are several rookies who can provide valuable depth to your fantasy team this season, and if you’re in a keeper league, wind up being a cornerstone of your team come next season.
It’s safe to say that drafting any of these guys with one of your first few picks isn’t the smartest idea, but if you get them at the right time, it could pay big dividends. Who knows, you could wind up with a steal like Slaton or Eddie Royal, someone who winds up being every bit as important to your run at a fantasy championship as L.T. or A.P.
Quarterbacks
Mark Sanchez – New York Jets
Sanchez is officially the second-coming of Joe Namath, and with a solid rush offense and aggressive defense aiding him, could provide decent stop-gap fantasy value.
Is he Matt Ryan all over again? Maybe, and maybe not, but if you watch Sanchez, he’s not the jittery, indecisive rookie quarterback we all thought we’d be seeing.
He was impressive as he bounced back against a stellar Ravens defense this past Monday night, and in two pre-season starts, he has displayed the moxie and confidence of, you guessed it, a worthy fantasy quarterback.
It’s more than the numbers or his supporting cast, though. Sanchez has looked extremely fluid and confident in his brief exposure, showing enhanced intangibles and ability to read and react extremely well for a rookie.
An emergence from a young receiver like David Clowney or the addition of s stud like Brandon Marshall via trade would only add to his already decent value.
Projected Stats: 3,366 Yds, 18 TD, 13 INT
Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions
Stafford still might get the nod as the Lions starter for week one (unfortunately for him), but that doesn’t necessarily mean big things for your fantasy success (unfortunately for you).
While he has Calvin Johnson at his disposal, he still has a sketchy offensive line and little else in the form of offensive weapons that suggest even a sniff of fantasy dominance.
It’s fair to say that Stafford has the tools to be a successful quarterback for Detroit down the road. But in 2009? That may be asking for a bit too much.
Projected Stats: 2,744 Yds, 14 TD, 17 INT
Running Backs
Knowshon Moreno – Denver Broncos
Moreno has the size, speed, hands, and potential edge out of all the Denver backs. The only problem is, there’s a million of them.
With an injury already slowing him down, Moreno will likely begin the season in an intense RBBC, sharing the load with Lamont Jordan, Correll Buckhalter, Peyton Hillis, and others.
Head coach Josh McDaniels runs a New England-style offense which is notorious for mixing things up in the ground game, usually using 3-4 backs in a rotation to keep them fresh and effective.
While it works wonders for a run at the post-season, it doesn’t necessarily add up to success in the fantasy realm. Regardless, Moreno has the best offensive line (arguably) of all the rookie backs, and considering how refined his skills are, is the best bet you top 1,000 yards.
Projected Stats: 245 Att, 1,067 Yds, 8 TD, 43 Rec, 388 Yds, 2 TD
Chris Wells – Arizona Cardinals
We haven’t seen Wells so far in pre-season due to injury (go figure), but considering Tim Hightower is the only thing keeping him from registering 1,000 yards, we like his chances.
Wells is a tough, bruising runner with good speed for his size, with a finesse style that makes him multi-dimensional. He’s a better overall player than Hightower, and while Hightower may steal some goal-line carries, Wells should easily see the field more.
If the Cardinals are truly serious about balancing their offense with a more aggressive ground game, Wells is the direction they’re headed in.
Projected Stats: 269 Att, 1,045 Yds, 7 TD, 26 Rec, 223 Yds, 0 TD
Donald Brown – Indianapolis Colts
Brown is the perfect complement to Joseph Addai, and depending on how things shape out, could also be the perfect replacement.
With good speed and outstanding vicion and cutting ability Brown poses as a much scarier homerun threat than Addai, while also having the tools to be a factor in the passing game.
The worst-case scenario has the two backs splitting carries, while Brown is definitely good enough to claim the starting job by the end of the season if Addai falters or gets hurt. If that happens, he could easily have the best numbers of all rookie backs.
Projected Stats: 147 Att, 624 Yds, 6 TD, 27 Rec, 304 Yds, 1 TD
LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles
McCoy appears to have a solid grasp of the complex West Coast offense, and as long as Michael Vick doesn’t steal the show via the Wildcat, he could be in line for some valuable touches.
With Brian Westbrook currently unready to go, McCoy is seeing decent action in pre-season, and so far has shown the ability to carry the rushing attack.
Westbrook is 30 and likely nearing the end of his career, which should mean McCoy gets eased into the ground game with 100+ carries, at the very worst.
Projected Stats: 135 Att, 589 Yds, 5 TD, 19 Rec, 188 Yds, 1 TD
Shonn Greene – New York Jets
While originally slated as the Jets’ “closer”, Greene has taken a backseat to starter Thomas Jones, as well as an increased role for Leon Washington.
With fourth running back Danny Woodhead also impressing, Greene’s original status seems to be changing.
He still has the ability to accomplish what Rex Ryan and co. had set out for him from the beginning, but it appears his role in the offense isn’t quite concrete.
However, with Jones’ age, and Washington’s contract issues, Greene should prove to be more than an effective hand-cuff.
Projected Stats: 97 Att, 447 Yds, 5 TD, 16 Rec, 144 Yds, 0 TD
Rashad Jennings – Jacksonville Jaguars
Outside of fullback Greg Jones, there aren’t any other serious contenders for carries behind Maurice Jones-Drew. That means good things for the rookie out of Liberty.
Jennings still has a ways to go in pass protection and hasn’t fully grasped the offense, but there should be enough carries left over to keep him fantasy relevant.
If an injury were to hit Jacksonville’s now Fred Taylor-less backfield, you can be sure that Jennings would be reaping the benefits.
Projected Stats: 76 Att, 355 Yds, 3 TD, 14 Rec, 122 Yds, 0 TD
Bernard Scott – Cincinnati Bengals
Scott hails from tiny Abilene Christian, but put up ridiculous numbers in college, and provides the Bengals with a shifty back with decent speed.
It doesn’t look like he’ll be any better than the third back when the season starts, but with only Brian Leonard in his way of more carries, the odds could be in his favor.
Projected Stats: 69 Att, 276 Yds, 2 TD, 15 Rec, 129 Yds, 0 TD
James Davis – Cleveland Browns
Davis has impressed with a fluid running style in pre-season, showing good speed and a decent burst to go with his solid inside-running ability.
With over 120 rushing yards and an 8.0+ yards per carry through two pre-season games, Davis is performing well enough to have Jamal Lewis in panic mode, and Eric Mangini second-guessing his depth chart.
Projected Stats: 70 Att, 300 Yds, 4 TD, 13 Rec, 119 Yds, 0 TD
Wide Receivers
Percy Harvin – Minnesota Vikings
Harvin is easily the most explosive receiver in his rookie class, having the ability to do amazing things with the football, while packaging his versatility into numerous roles.
He should start the season as a kick returner, while operating from the slot and being used in a version of the Wildcat. Harvin’s hands are a bit suspect, while his route-running is far from polished.
That, combined with character concerns, has everyone thinking “low-ceiling” for Harvin. Go away from the grain. With Brett Favre in town, Harvin will see plenty of opportunities in the slot in the form of slants, and could very well be the top performer in his rookie class in 2009.
Projected Stats: 49 Rec, 709 Yds, 6 TD
Kenny Britt – Tennessee Titans
Britt has a decent shot at stealing the number two receiver spot, but due to his rookie status, should bow out to Nate Washington, rendering him a mere stop-gap as the third option.
However, Britt probably has the best combination of size and speed on the Titans, which should have Kerry Collins looking his way plenty, even as a third option.
Projected Stats: 44 Rec, 644 Yds, 3 TD
Brian Robiskie – Cleveland Browns
Robiskie is currently projected as Cleveland’s number two option, but with Mike Furrey, Josh Cribbs, and others competing for that same role, his value is difficult to gauge.
What we do know, however, is that the quarterback position is anything but decided or permanent, and the only other explosive weapon on offense is Braylon Edwards.
If Robiskie can steal the second spot out-right, his numbers could be very good. But that would just make too much sense. And we all should have learned a long time ago, that nothing Eric Mangini does makes too much sense.
Projected Stats: 51 Rec, 606 Yds, 3 TD
Darrius Heyward-Bey – Oakland Raiders
Heyward-Bey is currently listed as Oakland’s number one receiver, and if Jamarcus Russell wasn’t still the quarterback, that might actually mean something.
While Heyward-Bey has progressed in camp, he’s done next to nothing in pre-season, and his status alone can’t even guarantee him WR3 value.
Get him for ultra cheap in deep leagues and you might be moderately surprised, but don’t hold out for anything spectacular.
Projected Stats: 39 Rec, 566 Yds, 4 TD
Louis Murphy – Oakland Raiders
It’s crazy to think it, but Murphy is quite possibly the better receiver between him and Heyward-Bey. He’s not nearly as fast, but he’s agile, has better hands, and looks to be ahead of the Maryland product in route-running, as well.
Murphy has pieced together a solid rookie off-season, and should be able to hold off Javon Walker and co. for slot duties.
Projected Stats: 33 Rec, 446 Yds, 3 TD
Jeremy Maclin – Philadelphia Eagles
Maclin has decent size and great speed, and is entering an offense that could make him an absolute beast, even in his first year.
The trouble is, the Eagles are loaded at receiver, like to run the ball a bit, and Maclin isn’t quite ready. He’s sure to make an impact as a return man and should eventually find himself in the rotation, but anything above the third receiver spot right now is pure hopes and dreams.
Projected Stats: 36 Rec, 555 Yds, 5 TD
Hakeem Nicks – New York Giants
First Nicks was inconsistent and underwhelming in camp, and then he catches a 55-yard bomb in his second pre-season game. Talk about wishy washy.
Still, if we had to pick between him or Domenik Hixon to put up WR2 numbers, we’re going with the veteran.
Nicks has great ball skills and body control, but he has a ways to go in too many areas to expect him to get more looks than Hixon or Steve Smith.
He’ll eventually work his way into the rotation, but there’s no telling how long it will take.
Projected Stats: 41 Rec, 447 Yds, 2 TD
Austin Collie – Indianapolis Colts
Pierre Garcon may be the more explosive and sexy pick, but Collie has excellent hands, runs pure routes, and simply knows how to get open.
Collie has out-performed Garcon in pre-season after having only a so-so camp, and looks to be the front-runner for slot duties in Indy’s offense.
Still, even the third receiver role in Indy has it’s downside, as tight end Dallas Clark runs as a wide receiver more often than Collie will. Expect nothing more than 40 catches, but if an injury hits the receiving corps, his value could sky rocket.
Projected Stats: 32 Rec, 409 Yds, 3 TD
Michael Crabtree – San Francisco 49ers
Crabtree makes the list based on his awesome play-making ability, college production, and toughness. But to make it just above Brian Hartline? Ouch.
Well, that’s what happens when you raise your nose to $20 million and threaten to sit out your rookie season and re-enter the NFL Draft.
Everyone loves Crabtree’s potential for 2009, even with Shaun Hill throwing the ball. But this attitude has got to go.
Projected Stats: Undetermined
Brian Hartline – Miami Dolphins
Hartline has great hands, decent speed, and runs good routes. He’s actually a very underrated prospect, as he has good overall athleticism and can elude defenders.
While Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo are the “favorites” for the two spots after Ted Ginn Jr., Hartline has been promoted to the top flanker spot in practice, and even if it’s by default, it’s still worth nothing.
It’s hard to believe he’ll actually stay there, but if he does, he has decent value and could be worth a pick-up in deep leagues.
Projected Stats: 27 Rec, 333 Yds, 2 TD
Tight Ends
Brandon Pettigrew – Detroit Lions
Pettigrew is clearly more well known for his blocking over his catching, but his well-rounded skill-set is good enough to rank him as the top rookie fantasy option at his position.
The fact that a potential rookie quarterback checking down to him doesn’t hurt his value, either.
Projected Stats: 45 Rec, 498 Yds, 5 TD
Shawn Nelson – Buffalo Bills
Nelson isn’t assured the starting job in Buffalo quite yet, but it’s safe to say he’s the best man for the job. With outstanding natural athleticism, as well as great speed and solid hands, he could be one of the next great, young tight ends.
Two problems: When does he take over, and can Trent Edwards put him to good use?
Projected Stats: 36 Rec, 424 Yds, 4 TD
Chase Coffman – Cincinnati Bengals
Coffman has been dealing with injuries and inconsistency all summer, but the basic all-around deficiency at the position still keeps the door open to a fantasy-relevant rookie season.
Coffman has great size at 6’7’’, and has solid speed to stretch the field. While not a great blocker, he should still see action in two tight end sets with his exceptional receiving ability.
Ben Utecht; be afraid.
Projected Stats: 33 Rec, 357 Yds, 6 TD
James Casey – Houston Texans
The interesting thing about Casey is his excellent all-around athleticism, as well as his versatility. He could be a match-up nightmare in the Wildcat, while being able to run, throw, and catch the ball effectively.
He’s so versatile that he can be used in the slot, outside, at tight end, or as a fullback catching out of the backfield. However, his lack of elite blocking skills could keep him from having an immediate impact.
Projected Stats: 27 Rec, 367 Yds, 3 TD
Jared Cook – Tennessee Titans
Cook, like Shawn Nelson, is a freak athlete with great speed. The problem in Tennessee is that the Titans already have an abundance of capable bodies at the position, and they all can block and catch effectively.
Cook has a ways to go before becoming a complete tight end, but don’t be shocked if an injury catapults him to elite status.
Projected Stats: 24 Rec, 303 Yds, 4 TD
