The Red Zone Report

The Houston Texans have yet to post a winning record in their short NFL existence, but after back to back .500 seasons, 2009 holds a lot of promise and potential for Gary Kubiak and the Texans

They do have the misfortune of being in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, but can they survive a tough schedule to finish with a winning mark, or better yet, post another first – their first postseason berth?

Here are five keys to the Texans having a chance to make this season one for the team history books.

5. Can Slaton Pick Up Where He Left Off?

Steve Slaton went from being projected as a first-round pick in the 2008 NFL Draft to being taken in the third round by the Texans, but he proved to be one of the biggest steals of the draft.

Slaton led all rookies and finished sixth in the NFL in rushing yards with 1,282 yards and scored nine rushing touchdowns. 737 of those yards came in the final seven games, when Slaton ran for 100 yards or more four times. He also emerged as an option in the passing game, catching 50 passes for 377 yards and a touchdown.

Can he pick up where he left off last season? All signs point to yes.

With a reliable, productive passing attack, Slaton doesn’t have to worry about having to carry the offense on his shoulders, and with his abilities to be a weapon in the passing game, Matt Schaub will be making use of him on a regular basis.

It also helps that the Texans aren’t short on running backs, and it looks like a now-healthy Chris Brown could help with short-yardage and goal-line situations. So, Slaton won’t have to take a beating like some other top backs will, and that could see him finish this season as strong as he did last season.

4. Will Someone Step Up To Support Mario Williams?

Mario Williams has made good on the Texans’ large investment in him, as the overall #1 pick in the 2006 draft has racked up 26 sacks in the last two seasons and firmly established himself as one of the league’s top pass rushers.

That sack total accounts for nearly half of the Texans’ team sack total in that span (56), and it’s safe to say that a little support could go a long way for both Williams and the Texans defense.

No one else had more than four sacks last season, and that includes Amobi Okoye, who had only one sack last season after recording 5.5 as a rookie in 2007.

Houston signed former Arizona Cardinals end Antonio Smith in free agency earlier this year, and he’ll man the opposite side, but he’s more of a run stopper than a sack master.

Insert Connor Barwin, Houston‘s second-round pick in this year‘s draft. Barwin moved from tight end to defense for his senior season at Cincinnati and notched 11 sacks, 16 tackles for loss, and eight pass deflections. Barwin’s a little undersized, but he’s extremely athletic and will be a load to handle when he spells Williams, especially when he’s fresh in the fourth quarter and going up against offensive linemen tired out from having to deal with Williams.

3. Less Giveaways, More Takeaways

Last season, the Texans finished with one of the worst turnover margins in the league, with their -10 surpassed by only Dallas (-11), Denver (-17), and San Francisco (-17).

Houston was last in the AFC and 30th in the NFL in giveaways, ranking in the bottom half of the league in fumbles lost (12) and near the bottom in interceptions (20). They get somewhat of a pass on the interceptions, because 10 of those were thrown by Sage Rosenfels, who’s now in Minnesota, and five of Matt Schaub’s 10 came in the first two games.

Losing the turnover battle can be the difference in winning and losing close games, so not only does the offense need to hold on to the ball better, but the defense needs to force more than 22 turnovers.

2. Can Matt Schaub Stay Healthy?

When the Texans traded for Schaub in March 2007, they got him with the intention of him being the elite, franchise quarterback that David Carr never quite developed into.

After tossing five interceptions in his first two games, Schaub showed that he can be that guy for the Texans, throwing for 2,653 yards, 14 touchdowns, and only five interceptions over the last nine games he played in 2008.

Unfortunately, we haven’t seen yet what he can do in a full season, as injuries have forced him to miss significant time in each of his first two seasons in Houston.

With a healthy Schaub, the Texans can have one of the most potent offenses in the league. But if he’s hurt again, then the Texans would have to turn to Dan Orlovsky or Rex Grossman (yes, he’s still in the NFL, but it’s just his luck that he’s currently injured), and even though both are experienced and could well get the job done in a pinch, their best chances for success come with Schaub taking the snaps.

1. Is This The Year The Texans Make The Playoffs?

Can they? Sure. If the Texans can avoid injuries to their key offensive players, the offense will be one of the best in the league, and if the defense can improve, the Texans will be one step closer to being that complete team that can contend for the postseason year in, year out.

Will they? That’s another story. The AFC South is as tough as nails, and if the Jaguars can rebound from a poor 2008 season, the division will have four teams capable of making the postseason.

The AFC South title will go through Indianapolis or Tennessee, so that route can be ruled out for the Texans. Factor in the number of other teams in the AFC that will be fighting for the two wild-card spots, and it won’t be an easy road.

Speaking of road, that will be the key for the Texans. They’ve been 6-2 at home and 2-6 on the road last season, and they’ll need to back up that home excellence by at least breaking even on the road. That will be hard to come by, with road games against their three division rivals, Buffalo, Miami, Arizona, and Cincinnati.

I like their chances to post the franchise’s first winning season, but their wait for the postseason might continue.