It’s a great debate heading into every season, but generally gets even more interesting after the first 4-6 weeks. Everyone wants to know - is this the year their team’s coach gets canned? Well, if your favorite team is Cincinnati or Washington, it’s entirely possible.
Still, it’s a strange marvel when coaches that the whole world expected to get fired, simply keep their jobs. See: Marvin Lewis. Different teams and different circumstances can always change the outlook the front office has on a coach or their team, making these kinds of things rather unpredictable. But that’s what the NFL off-season is all about: hype, analysis, and predicting things we shouldn’t even be thinking about predicting.
In the name of Super Bowl and playoff predictions, here’s a look at each coach that is likely entering a make-or-break season, or is at least on a seat that continues to warm up.
Warm
It’s probably not fair to him or the Raiders at this point, but knowing Al Davis, Cable is sure to be on a short leash. Another mid-season firing isn’t out of the question if Davis doesn’t like what he sees. If Cable is smart and goes with Jeff Garcia over the struggling JaMarcus Russell, he could see enough success (though minimal) to at least warrant another try in 2010.
Prediction: Fired
2. Wade Phillips, Dallas Cowboys
If you look at his history, you’d imagine that Phillips won’t be winning much more than a division title in his Dallas future. Then again, try telling that to owner Jerry Jones, who is completely backing his coach. Then again, he backed Drew Bledsoe, and even more recently, Adam “Pacman” Jones, and Terrell Owens.
For now, Phillips, who has never won a playoff game, can call Dallas his home without worrying too much.
Prediction: Retained
3. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers
McCarthy is only two years removed from an NFC Championship game appearance, but he’s still remotely on the hot seat.
He’s had one 8-8 season and saw his team (mostly his defense) regress to 6-10 after 2007’s magical 13-3 run. So, now the question is, which season was the mirage? While his offensive schemes and personnel aren’t in question, his decision-making and roster management could be.
If he can’t progress significantly from last year’s disappointment, a firing wouldn’t be totally out of the question.
Prediction: Retained
4. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints
After a fantastic debut in his first season, Payton and the Saints have delivered only so-so results. They’ve consistently put one of the best offenses on the field, but simply have not been good on defense.
Off-season signings and the return of formally retired Dan Morgan (which could be a huge boost) could, at least on paper, propel his team back to the top of the NFC South. If not, however, Saints management might look for someone who can get it done on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: Retained
5. John Fox, Carolina Panthers
Fox has never led Carolina to a record below 8-8, and has consistently put a well-balanced team together. His leadership and competitiveness is infectious, and spreads through his team every year. His team’s fully understand his approach, and they buy into it, very seldomly wavering as the season goes on.
It’s unrealistic for Carolina to believe they can upgrade over Fox, even if the Panthers do regress, but it still could happen.
He loves Jake Delhomme, but oddly enough, his quarterback could be what gets him fired in the end.
Prediction: Retained
6. Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos
Hey, he wouldn’t be the first one-and-done coach in NFL history. After riding Jay Cutler out of town, the Denver front office could go either way on McDaniels if he doesn’t have a good showing in his first season.
While a firing after one season is unlikely, McDaniels probably still has to work to keep the rumors from swirling.
Prediction: Retained
Getting Warmer
1. Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans
Kubiak has pieced together a terrific offense with several elite play-makers, and also added a slew of fresh talent in the draft. However, offense and game-planning has never been a weakness of his-it’s his defense.
The Texans defense has been improving every year, however, and a wild card run is in the works.
Prediction: Retained
2. Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars
While many cast the blame on their quarterback, David Garrard, it was quite obvious that the Jaguars were done in by their poor offensive line (mostly due to injuries), as well as their lack of elite play-makers. Another interesting tidbit is that their defense has slipped since 2007.
Defense is Del Rio’s strong suit, and there’s little doubt that they will be better on that side of the ball, despite not obtaining any new impact players. If Del Rio can’t get Jacksonville back into division title contention, his inconsistency could catch up with him.
Prediction: Retained
3. Norv Turner, San Diego Chargers
Turner was more than likely on the hot seat mid-way through last season, as he was inexplicably driving a very talented offense into the ground. While the numbers were there, injuries and inconsistency at the end of games was destroying what appeared to be a title contender.
Shawne Merriman being lost for the season may have had something to do with it, as well.
Needless to say, if Turner was at risk of losing his job (even a little bit) last year, he probably has to make the playoffs again to stay in San Diego.
Prediction: Retained
4. Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings
Childress has helped Minnesota improve little-by-little every season during his three-year tenure, while even capturing the NFC North title in 2008.
However, inconsistent quarterback play has plagued his offense, and he may see his future rest in the hands of either Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson. He can’t feel too good about that - which is why he’s pursuing Brett Favre - probably even more than anyone would imagine.
If Childress lands Favre, another division title is within reach, and a deep run in the playoffs isn’t out of the question. While many experts will deny it, signing Favre could save his job.
Prediction: Retained
5. Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles
While he’s been extremely productive as a coach over his tenure in Philly, Reid still hasn’t captured that elusive Super Bowl, and he and his team aren’t getting any younger.
It’s crazy to fire a guy who wins and is a great teacher, but Philadelphia has been waiting on a championship too long to “ride it out” just for the sake of loyalty. If the Eagles don’t make another deep run, Reid could be in danger of losing his job.
Prediction: Retained
Red Hot
Jauron has only one noteworthy season on his resume, while the rest of his coaching career has been drenched in mediocrity.
With three straight 7-9 seasons in Buffalo, it’s playoffs or bust.
Prediction: Fired
2. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals
Lewis, like Jauron, only has one good season to his credit, and has nothing else to show for his coaching career but 7-9 and 8-8 seasons, as well as last year’s 4-11-1 collapse.
If Carson Palmer can stay healthy and return to form, Lewis stands a chance to keep his job. However, there’s still that awful defense to worry about.
Prediction: Fired
3. Jim Zorn, Washington Redskins
Zorn and the Redskins looked extremely poised and confident during their early season 6-2 start, but caved in under the pressure, going 2-6 down the stretch, and missing the playoffs.
Sounds like a Brett Favre nightmare, doesn’t it?
The Redskins have all the tools to compete, even in the difficult NFC East, and they have one of the more creative offensive minds in Zorn.
However, the competition and lack of an elite quarterback may be too much for the inexperienced Zorn to overcome.
Prediction: Fired
