
I feel pretty safe in saying that the next few weeks of the college football season will go a long way towards deciding the winner of the 2008 Heisman Trophy.
With all due respect to the likes of Michigan State’s Javon Ringer or Missouri’s Chase Daniel, who was on many a preseason favorite list, the Heisman race looks to come down to Colt McCoy, Graham Harrell, and maybe Sam Bradford and Knowshon Moreno.
On Saturday, Harrell and Texas Tech host McCoy and Texas in a showdown for first in the Big 12 South.
If Texas wins in Lubbock, then McCoy‘s got a chance to run away from the pack in the final few weeks. There are tricky games against Kansas (away) and Texas A&M (home), but win this weekend, and it’s still his Heisman to lose.
But, if the Red Raiders can win, Harrell will rightfully claim the favorite role. Following their matchup against the Longhorns, Texas Tech hosts Oklahoma State, and after a week off, makes the trip to Norman to take on Bradford and Oklahoma before finishing up the regular season at home against Baylor.
Harrell’s going to have the gaudy numbers no matter what happens, and his chances of breaking Colt Brennan’s career touchdown passes record of 131 are on track, as his five against Kansas gave him 28 for the season and 117 for his career. But those gaudy numbers will mean little if he can’t lead the Red Raiders to some big victories in November (and December, if they can win the Big 12 South).
It’s not too late for Bradford, who has 29 touchdown passes, but even though he threw three touchdown passes against Kansas State on Saturday, he missed a golden stat-padding opportunity by tanking in the second half with the Sooners well ahead and finishing only 13 of 32 for 255 yards. He’s got to finish strong and then hope that the dominoes fall (Tech beats Texas, OU beats Tech and wins out, Texas loses to either KU or A&M) so that he gets one final big-game opportunity in the Big 12 title game.
As for the other contenders? Moreno has run for 334 yards in the last two games against Vanderbilt and LSU, and if Georgia can win out and win the SEC title game, he’ll certainly have a case for plenty of votes. For him, Saturday’s game against Florida offers up the chance to show out against the Gators again and give Georgia first in the SEC East and keep them in the national title hunt, but also to really jump near the top in the Heisman race.
Ringer leads the nation in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, but doing better than fourth or fifth will come down to how the Spartans do in their final three games against Wisconsin, Purdue, and Penn State. For MSU to finish 10-2 with an upset of Penn State in their regular-season finale would probably be Ringer’s best hope, but even if that happens, he might need to somehow surpass 2,000 yards or come close to it.
You never know what could happen though. Last season, Oregon’s Dennis Dixon looked to be on his way to winning the Heisman, then he went down in mid-November with a torn ACL that doomed his Heisman hopes and clearing the way for Tim Tebow to win the award.
It’s certainly going to be a wild November, and a lot of eyes are going to be on the Big 12.