Before August 30, everything looked to be cut and dry in the ACC. Clemson was the undisputed best team, and the Tigers were not only touted to be the class of the ACC, but also as a potential darkhorse national title contender, with Cullen Harper, James Davis, and C.J. Spiller leading the way.
Then the Tigers got blasted by Alabama in Jacksonville, and they haven’t recovered since, which explains why Tommy Bowden is now sitting at home (or doing whatever it is unemployed head coaches do). Heading into November, they’re 3-4 overall and 1-3 in the ACC, fifth in the Atlantic Division with only luckless North Carolina State (2-6, 0-4) below them.
With their demise, the ACC has really become a crapshoot, and while the conference members appear to be beating on each other SEC-style and making it hard for there to be a highly-ranked ACC team (or many ranked teams at all), which is the ultimate sign of conference credibility for many, it’s setting up to be a wild final few weeks.
So who wants to rise up and win the darn thing?
After Clemson’s capitulation began, the favorite mantle was Wake Forest’s to claim, but the Demon Deacons have buckled over the last couple of weeks, dropping back-to-back games to Maryland and Wake Forest, losses that have put them at 4-3 overall and 2-2 in the ACC, and have also exposed their need to step it up on offense.
They’re not out of it if they can right the ship quickly, but just as winnable as their remaining five games all are, they’re tricky as well. Up next is Duke at home, who won at Vanderbilt on Saturday, then surprising Virginia comes into Winston-Salem. After a road game at N.C. State, who’s better than their poor record, they finish up with two more home games, their ACC finale against Boston College and then the regular-season finale against Vandy.
At this point though, the Deacs are playing catch-up in the Atlantic Division, as they’re a game behind Florida State and Maryland, who are both 3-1. Maryland (6-2) owns three wins over teams that were ranked when they played them (Cal, Clemson, Wake), but you can’t really cast your lot with them just yet, because they’re prone to confusing losses (a 24-14 loss at currently 2-6 Middle Tennessee State and a 31-0 shutout at Virginia).
All the same, the Seminoles can’t be trusted yet, even though they have seemingly woken up since their embarrassing loss to Wake Forest in their ACC opener. The Seminoles now hold the mantle as the ACC’s highest-ranked team, but how long will that last?
FSU goes to Georgia Tech, then hosts Clemson and Boston College before finishing up their conference slate at Maryland in a game that could be the division title decider. The ‘Noles still have questions on offense, and they’ve scraped by in a few games, but they may just be the team to beat after rallying to beat Virginia Tech 27-20 on Saturday. Of course, they could go out and lay an egg in Atlanta, but for the sake of the sanity of many of my friends, I hope that isn’t the case.
But, if you’re Wake and Boston College (5-2, 2-2), you’ve still got to feel good about your chances, provided you win out and get in position to have the edge in any head-to-head tiebreakers that may come up.
Meanwhile, in the Coastal, there is a Virginia team atop the standings, but it’s not Virginia Tech, as one might have expected. Nope, it’s Virginia, who started 1-3 with blowout losses to USC, UConn, and Duke, but has since rolled off four wins in a row to go to 5-3 overall and 3-1 in the ACC. Their last two wins have come at the expense of North Carolina and Georgia Tech, and both have followed their pattern from last year of coming through in close games.
The Cavaliers have roadies at Wake (Nov. 
and Va. Tech (Nov. 22) and home games against Miami (next Saturday) and Clemson (Nov. 22), so if they wind up winning the division title, they’ll have earned it.
There are four teams with two losses behind them, Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2), North Carolina (6-2, 2-2), Virginia Tech (5-3, 2-2), and Miami (5-3, 2-2). With the testy slate Virginia has left, the chances of the winner of the Coastal Division having three losses are pretty high. I’d feel pretty good about penciling North Carolina in as the projected winner if they hadn’t lost to both Virginia and Virginia Tech, but even if Butch Davis’ Tar Heels don’t win the division, they could be headed to the Gator Bowl, which would be a fantastic achievement.
Unfortunately for the ACC, all of this chaos could hurt the conference when it comes to an automatic berth in a BCS bowl. Georgia Tech was the highest-rated ACC team in the initial BCS standings last week, coming in at #18, with FSU following at #25. With the winner of the Mountain West (either Utah - #11, TCU - #14, or BYU - #21), Boise State (#12), and potentially Tulsa (#19) being in position to qualify for a BCS bowl, things are looking precarious for the ACC (and the Big East too, with South Florida and Pittsburgh losing), when you consider that the champion could finish outside the top 16 (and behind one or more of those non-BCS teams) and thusly not be assured of their automatic BCS berth.
Of course, if FSU can run the table, or at least finish 11-2 (throwing in the ACC title game win), they’ll likely finish in the top 12, which would leave the Big East as the conference under threat of having their automatic berth taken.
Whoever does win the ACC will be charged with the task of regaining some national respect for the conference, both because of Clemson’s fall, but also because the ACC champ hasn’t won a BCS bowl since Peter Warrick and FSU beat Michael Vick and Virginia Tech in the 2000 Sugar Bowl to win the national championship.
