Playing the Odds: NFL Week 6
Guess who’s back?
The last few week-plus has been extremely busy for me, as I had some other commitments to attend to, both personal and work-related, but I’m back now, just in time to make my ATS picks for Week 6 of the NFL season.
I didn’t make any picks last week, but I had a decent showing in Week 4, as I went 8-5, which puts my record at 15-14 heading into this week.
If you plan on making a few wagers this weekend, do so responsibly and smartly, I suggest going with BetUS, where you can put your money on picking on the spread, outright winners, and the over/under to the next NFL champion.
Right now, they’ve got some excellent football-related bonuses, including a nice Game of the Week special, so you’ve got no shortage of options.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS vs. Oakland Raiders (Current Line: New Orleans -7)
Oakland is playing their first game under interim head coach Tom Cable, and if they get a lead, don’t get too excited, because they blew sizable leads in their last two games, which helped put the nail in Kiffin’s proverbial coffin. Hopefully they’ll take heart from Minnesota’s stubbornness and not kick to Reggie Bush, but whether or not they do, the Saints will hold serve at home and cover.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs. Baltimore Ravens (Current Line: Indy -3 ½)
Up until the last few minutes of the fourth quarter against Houston on Sunday, Peyton Manning and the Colts had been pretty sluggish through the start of the season. But, erasing a 17-point deficit in the final 4:04 with 21 unanswered points might have been the turning point for Indy. Peyton isn’t in midseason form yet, and it’ll be hard for him to go for 300 yards and three scores against the Ravens, but he and the Colts will do enough to win and cover.
NEW YORK JETS vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Current Line: Jets -5 ½)
Cincinnati did an excellent job of making Dallas work for their win on Sunday, but 0-5 is still 0-5, and it doesn’t get any easier. Brett Favre has thrown nine touchdown passes in his last two games, including his career-high six against the Cardinals in Week 4, and though the Bengals can put up some points, I like the Jets’ chances to cover comfortably.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. CAROLINA PANTHERS (Current Line: Tampa Bay -1 ½)
The NFC South looked pretty weak heading into this season, but three of the four teams have winning records, and New Orleans is unfortunate to be 2-3. I really like the way Carolina’s playing right now on both sides of the ball, and I think they’ll be 5-1 come Sunday evening.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS vs. Detroit Lions (Current Line: Minnesota -13)
Minnesota picked up an impressive road win at New Orleans on Monday night, in spite of Reggie Bush’s best efforts. If 2004 pre-injury Eddie Drummond was still with the Lions, I’d give them a half-chance. Here’s some food for thought - if your head coach is a defensive coach, shouldn’t your area of concern not be the D after a couple of seasons? Double-digit lines in NFL games make me uneasy, but the Lions are terrible right now, so…
ATLANTA FALCONS vs. Chicago Bears (Current Line: Chicago -3)
Raise your hand if you had the Falcons and Bears to be 3-2 after five games. Not many hands, right? The Bears could actually be 5-0, while the Falcons are only a win away from matching last year’s win total after winning at Green Bay. The jury’s still out on the dirty birds though, as the Bears are favored by a field goal. But, the Falcons have played their best at home, and they’re at home.
HOUSTON TEXANS vs. Miami Dolphins (Current Line: Houston -3)
So, the Dolphins have established that they won’t be a pushover in ‘08, with back-to-back wins over New England and San Diego. But, I’m going with the Texans, but I hope they remember that the win isn’t wrapped up until the clock hits triple zeroes for the fourth time.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS vs. St. Louis Rams (Current Line: Washington -13)
New York and Dallas were expected to be the class of the NFC East, and I think they still are, but the Redskins looked primed to give them a serious run for their money, as long as Jason Campbell continues to play mistake-free ball (153 passes this season, zero INT). He may well throw his first pick of the season on Sunday, but given how bad the Rams’ defense is, he shouldn’t make many, if any, mistakes against them.
DENVER BRONCOS vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Current Line: Denver -3 ½)
I think Denver proved something on Sunday by winning a game without having to put up a bunch of points. Still, there might be a few skeptics, but that list can get a little smaller if the Broncos can beat Jacksonville, who’s 2-3, but still very much a threat. The Jaguars can ill-afford to drop this one, with Tennessee (who’s off this week) already three games ahead. I’m tempted to take Jacksonville, but maybe, just maybe, the Broncos are finally making a believer out of me. And with that said, I’ve set them up to let me down.
San Francisco 49ers vs. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Current Line: Eagles -5)
The Eagles have dropped two in a row to fall to the bottom of the NFC East, and with the rest of their competitors at 4-1 or better, Sunday’s game in San Fran is a must-win. I like how Donovan McNabb has taken responsibility for the last couple of losses, and I think they’ll step up against a team who has potential, but still has a lot of work to do to fulfill it.
ARIZONA CARDINALS vs. Dallas Cowboys (Current Line: Dallas -5)
This one is BetUS’ Game of the Week, and I have to agree. If both teams score less than 25 points (and I’m setting the bar low), I’ll be disappointed. I don’t want to pick against the Cowboys, but with Terence Newman out and Dallas’ defense, Kurt Warner could have a big day, and with that in mind, I’m giving the Cardinals the points.
Seattle Seahawks vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS (Current Line: Seattle -1 ½)
After getting the snot kicked out of them by New York on Sunday, the odds makers still have a little faith in the Seahawks, though to be fair, Green Bay’s coming in off of three straight losses, so you can’t really be too high on them either. Seattle is really stinking it up this year, for the most part, and if you take away that Week 3 blowout of the Rams, they’re even worse. Green Bay’s disappointed me the last few weeks, but this is a good time to get out of their rut.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS vs. New England Patriots (Current Line: San Diego -4 ½)
Before Tom Brady blew out his knee and the Chargers started 2-3, this week’s Sunday nighter would’ve been one of the best games of the early season. It still may be, since both teams are playing from behind in their respective divisions and can’t lose ground. That applies especially to the Chargers, who are two games back of Denver in the AFC West. San Diego knows their backs are against the wall, and I think that’ll show in them justifying me giving them the points.
Cleveland Browns vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (Current Line: New York -7 ½)
The last time we saw the Browns, they finally woke up in time to stage a fourth-quarter comeback and beat in-state and divisional rival Cincinnati, who took New York into overtime in Week 3. Maybe the Browns are primed for a breakout game soon enough, but it’s not going to be this week.
Related posts on The Red Zone Report
