The college football weekend got off to about the wildest start imaginable last night, as Oregon State knocked off #1 USC in Corvallis. That means I’m off to a 1-0 start against the spread (hooray for me, not so much for USC), and hopefully that’s the start of an exciting weekend of action and a successful weekend for me.
Yesterday, I gave my ATS picks for the games involving top-10 teams, and today, I give my picks for the rest of the games involving top-25 teams and a few of the top matchups between unranked teams.
If you’re going to listen to any of my picks and make some wagers this weekend, don‘t blow all of your money, but for what you do blow, we suggest BetUS. Excellent bonuses, a lot of options, and a lot of incentives. But hey, if you’ve got an account elsewhere, it’s all good, because there are a lot of great sportsbooks out there to choose from.
PICKS IN CAPITALS (Note: Picks are for the spread. For the win picks, read the analysis.)
#12 PENN STATE vs. #21 Illinois (Current Line: PSU -15 ½)
Illinois scored a surprise 27-20 win over the Nittany Lions last season on the way to their run to the Rose Bowl, and given there’s not a major discrepancy in where these two teams are ranked, you’d think the line would be a little closer. However, Penn St. has blitzed through its first four opponents, while Illinois has gotten off to a pretty unconvincing 2-1 start.
With DE Maurice Evans and DT Abe Koroma returning to an already suffocating defense, Penn St. can take advantage of Juice Williams’ inconsistent tendencies, and I see Illinois having trouble with an offense that has been both prolific and balanced at the same time.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE vs. #13 South Florida (Current Line: USF -10)
Before last weekend, N.C. State was looking pretty bad. But, if the Wolfpack could score a second straight win over a top-15 team on Saturday, they‘ll go into October with a little national respect. Even after what N.C. State did to East Carolina, the oddsmakers are being pretty favorable towards the Bulls. I’m nowhere near a full believer in N.C. State, but after getting burned by them last week, I’ll have a little more confidence in them this week and take them and the points – though I‘ll still be a little bullish (pun not fully intended) and take USF to win it.
#13 OHIO STATE vs. Minnesota (Current Line: OSU -19)
Minnesota enters this game at 4-0, but their best win might be over a Bowling Green team that won at Pittsburgh in its opener but has since lost two straight. The Golden Gophers have produced offensively even without RB Duane Bennett, but their defense has also made strides, as they’ve forced 13 turnovers (+11 turnover margin). But, they’ll have their hands full with Terrelle Pryor and a now-healthy Beanie Wells, so bye bye hot streak. It could be close for a while, but I feel good about Ohio St.’s chances to cover – they’ve won by 20 or more in 18 of 23 meetings in Columbus.
#15 AUBURN vs. Tennessee (Current Line: Auburn -7)
-7? That’s being nice to Tennessee, given the kicking in the teeth they got at home from Florida last week. Auburn did lose to LSU last week, but I’m a lot higher on them than I am on Tennessee right now. Maybe they’ll rise to the occasion on the road, but I’ll take Auburn to win and cover without a problem.
#16 WAKE FOREST vs. Navy (Current Line: Wake -16)
You know what’s going to happen in this one. Navy’s going to run it a lot, and Wake’s going to have to stop them. The Demon Deacons have done well against the run so far, and their pass defense could shut down Navy’s top big-play receiver, Tyree Barnes (9 catches, 203 yards, 2 TD). I do think Wake should win by a couple of scores, but I’m cautiously giving them the points, since 10-14 sounds a little more reasonable than 16.
#19 Clemson vs. MARYLAND (Current Line: Clemson -11)
Clemson (3-1) looks like they’ve gotten back on track after their season-opening loss to Alabama, while the same can be said for Maryland (3-1, two straight wins) after their surprising loss at Middle Tennessee St. I’m in Clemson’s corner for the win, but I like the Terps’ chances to make a good game of it, since they’re getting RB Da’Rel Scott back from a shoulder injury, and they’ve also won two of the last three at Clemson.
Washington State vs. #22 OREGON (Current Line: Oregon -21 ½)
Both teams are facing QB issues, as the Cougars are down to their #3 QB, while Oregon will start freshman Darron Thomas, who’s gone from redshirt to #1 on the depth chart with a slew of injuries. Thomas was impressive in rallying the Ducks to a near-comeback in last week’s loss to Boise St. in his first game action, and I think he’ll thrive against the Cougars, who are up against it both defensively and offensively. Ducks rebound, cover, and win.
#23 East Carolina vs. HOUSTON (Current Line: ECU -10 ½)
East Carolina’s BCS dreams likely came to an end in last week’s loss at N.C. State, but there’s still a Conference USA championship to fight for, as is the goal for Houston, who enters at 1-3. Their offense, led by QB Case Keenum (1,521 yards, 16 TD, 4 INT) can put up a lot of points, while ECU is more about efficiency than explosiveness.
But, Houston fell behind big against both Air Force (31-7 in the third) and CSU (21-3 at half) in eventual three-point losses, and they led Oklahoma St. at halftime before giving up 42 second-half points, so their defense doesn‘t inspire much confidence. However, they may be better than their record indicates, so I’ll be a little bold. Pirates win, but I‘ll take the Coogs to cover.
UCLA vs. #24 FRESNO STATE (Current Line: Fresno St. -7 ½)
Fresno State nearly suffered a letdown last week at Toledo, but stopped a two-point conversion in overtime to win 55-54, and now they’re on the road for the third time in their first four games, playing a UCLA team that has been outscored 90-10 in two games after upsetting Tennessee in their opener. The Bruins haven’t looked good on offense so far, minus Kevin Craft’s excellent second half against the Vols, and that doesn’t help the defense much. Not much reason to pick against Fresno St., really, even on the road.
On to the unranked matchups:
LOUISVILLE vs. Connecticut (Louisville -3 ½): Louisville’s defense looks to be much improved over last year, but their run defense (42 yards allowed per game) is going to be tested by Donald Brown (716 yards, 10 TD), just as the Huskies’ defense will have their hands full with Victor Anderson, who ran for 176 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 38-29 win over Kansas St. I like UConn a lot, but Louisville’s playing well and playing at home.
Nebraska vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Nebraska -7): Nebraska’s had it easy so far, while VT’s been tested by ECU, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina. Virginia Tech’s defense is going to have to continue to step up, because the offense has gotten by doing just enough so far, and just enough won’t do if Nebraska’s offense gets it going. I’m feeling pretty good about Nebraska’s chances to win, but I think the Hokies will play it close, so I’m taking them and the points.
FLORIDA STATE vs. Colorado (FSU -5 ½): It’s easy to be high on Colorado and low on FSU right now, but I can’t give up on the Seminoles just yet. Doesn’t hurt that they’ll pretty much have a complete team now. ‘Noles get the points and the win, and I hope they don’t let me down.
NOTRE DAME vs. Purdue (ND -1 ½): Notre Dame might not be ‘back’ just yet, but I’m not sold on Purdue’s ability to go on the road and get the big win. Should be close, but the spread’s easily coverable for the Irish.
INDIANA vs. Michigan St. (MSU -8 ½): Indiana is coming off of a 42-20 home loss to Ball St., but I like them to bounce back and win this one.
MIAMI vs. North Carolina (Miami -7 ½): With T.J. Yates out for the next several weeks with a broken ankle, the Tar Heels’ ACC Coastal hopes rest on red shirt freshman Mike Paulus and Cam Sexton, whose last significant action came in 2006, when he didn’t fare too well. Those two will be thrown to the wolves on Saturday, and I don’t think it will go well. Canes get the points and the win.
Oklahoma State vs. TROY (OSU -17 ½): Troy won last year’s game in Alabama, and they played it close for three quarters last week at Ohio State before falling (but still beating the spread). I like the Cowboys to win and go to 4-0, but the Trojans can keep up in what could be a shootout.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. Buffalo (CMU -7): Buffalo played Missouri closer than expected, while CMU pushed Purdue to the brink. A little home cooking’s going to do the Chippewas good after three straight road trips. CMU gets the points and the win.
If have an account with BetUS, go to their college football lines page to make your picks, but if you don’t have an account there but you do want one, you can sign up and start making your bets. But, wherever you bet this weekend, have fun, and good luck!
