Last week, I debuted my weekly college football betting picks feature, and it was certainly a mixed bag. There were a few underdog picks that I was right on the money about, and at the same time, I whiffed on quite a few that I felt pretty good about, thanks to some upsets and some teams not playing up to expectations. All told, I finished 7-10 (see last week’s Thursday and Friday picks and the top 25 picks). Not bad, but I could certainly do better, and hopefully this week my picks will all cooperate.

The action gets underway tonight, with upset-minded Oregon St. playing host to the top-ranked team in the country, USC, who knows not to think lightly of the Beavers.

I thought I’d break this week’s picks up into a few sections, since I have a good bit to say about several of them.

Hopefully I’ll help you win some extra money to spend on gas, beer, pizza, or a gift for your significant other.

And if you are looking to splash a little to win some more, do so responsibly, and do it through our preferred partner, BetUS..

There are a lot of interesting lines this week, and I’m also feeling a little bold, so a number of underdogs could get a little love.

Oregon State vs. #1 USC (Current Line: USC -24 ½)

After USC blew out one OSU that was supposed to be one of the best teams in the country, they can certainly do it to this one on the road, right? Not so fast. I could be off-base here, and the Trojans could absolutely annihilate the Beavers, but here are a few interesting facts to consider, and not just the fact that Oregon St. beat USC in Corvallis in 2006.

Oregon State has the offense to put up some points on USC’s defense, with QB Lyle Moevao averaging 307 passing yards per game thus far (922 yards, 6 TD, 4 INT), talented freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers (263 yards, 4 TD) and his brother James (13 catches, 159 yards), who combines with Sammie Stroughter (21-255-3) and Shane Morales (22-284-2) to give Moevao three regular targets.

On top of that, in their seven meetings this decade, OSU has won two of the three in Corvallis, and in the other five, the biggest margin of victory was 24 (52-28 in 2003).

I do think USC will win, but taking OSU and the points is just something I can’t pass up. They did lose by 31 points at Penn St. a few weeks ago, and though USC is a better team than Penn St., I still like my chances.

#2 Oklahoma vs. #23 TCU (Current Line: OU -18 ½)

Oklahoma’s offense is averaging 55 points and 557 yards through the first three games, with DeMarco Murray (312 yards, 3 TD) and Chris Brown (241 yards, 4 TD) leading the way on the ground, and Sam Bradford (882 yards, 12 TD, 2 INT) off to a blistering start.

On the other hand, TCU’s defense has forced 13 turnovers (8 INT, 5 fumbles, +12 turnover margin) and recorded 36 tackles for loss and 14 sacks in only four games, while allowing 7.8 points and 183 yards per game. Of course, this is the best offense they’ll be facing so far, much like this is the best defense OU will face before they get into Big 12 play.

The gameplan for TCU is pretty simple, but it’s also much easier said than done. Make plays on defense and put the ball in the hands of the offense to control the game with the run. Upset special? I won’t go that far, but the Horned Frogs have the defense and the ground game to execute that gameplan to some effect and warrant taking them and the points.

However, as opposed to casting my lot with them for the game bet and leaving it at that, you might be better served to go with the first-half bet (line at 10 ½ right now), because I don’t think it’ll get out of hand that quickly.

#3 Georgia vs. #8 Alabama (Current Line: UGA -6 ½)

While Georgia was tested on the road in back-to-back weeks at South Carolina and Arizona St., Alabama’s had an easy time of it since their season-opening win against Clemson. So, we’ll get to see on Saturday if they justify their top-10 ranking and are really worth mentioning in the national title conversation.

Georgia won last year’s game in Tuscaloosa in overtime (26-23), and I think Saturday’s game in Athens will be close as well. The emergence of freshman receiver A.J. Green (8 catches, 159 yards, TD vs. Arizona St.) really opens things up for the passing game, which only benefits Knowshon Moreno and puts a lot of pressure on Alabama’s defense.

All the same, Georgia’s run defense (45.8 yards per game allowed) to slow down the Tide’s three-pronged ground attack (236.8 yards per game) and not let the streaky (read: inconsistent) John Parker Wilson beat them. A lot of eyes will be on the two elite freshman receivers in this one, in Green and Bama’s Julio Jones, but my eyes will be watching out for Georgia backing up my confidence in them to cover, just barely.

#4 Florida vs. Ole Miss (Current Line: UF -22)

Could Florida be tested in this one? Ole Miss won the last time they were in Gainesville (20-17 in 2003), and in Oxford last year, Florida escaped with a 30-24 win, and only two of Florida’s 10 wins in this 22-game series have been by more than 20 points (49-3 in 1981 and 38-14 in 1994).

So, I don’t doubt that the Rebels could give the Gators a good game, provided they don’t get plagued by mistakes and missed opportunities like they were in Saturday’s loss to Vanderbilt, when they had six turnovers and were stopped at the goal-line and in Vandy territory multiple times.

That being said, we haven’t seen the best from Tim Tebow and Florida’s offense yet, and with a defense that loves to get into the backfield - and now has standout end Greg Hardy back, healthy, and immediately wreaking havoc (two tackles, sack vs. Vandy) after missing the first three games, this is another one where I’m taking the favorite to win, but the dog to cover.

#5 LSU vs. Mississippi St. (Current Line: LSU -24)

This series hasn’t been close in recent years, and MSU is coming into Baton Rouge struggling at 1-3, while LSU is 3-0 and coming off of a big win at Auburn. So, there’s good reason for this line to be where it is. For obvious reasons, I’d like to see the Bulldogs put in a good performance, and they just might with their backs against the wall after the way things have gone so far. But, for also obvious reasons, I‘m giving LSU the points.

#7 Texas vs. Arkansas (Current Line: Texas -27 ½)

Arkansas’ struggles to beat a few ’easy’ opponents in the first two games and then getting plastered at home by 35 by Alabama, combined with Texas’ hot start have the Longhorns heavily favored. Past history doesn’t lend to a blowout, however. The last time they played in Austin was 2003, and the Razorbacks won 38-28, though it must be said that Arkansas team was better than this one is right now, which is a team that is still very much searching for its identity and some consistency.

Texas faced offenses that love to throw the ball in each of their first three games (Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Rice) and allowed 821 yards, but their offense has been so good that most of those yards were meaningless, so if Casey Dick’s going to have his yards matter, he better get them early and often (and put the ball in the right hands), and he’ll need some help from RB Michael Smith (248 yards, 2 TD, 10 catches, 90 yards in two games), who goes up against a tough run D. More than anything though, the Arkansas defense, which allowed Alabama to run for 328 yards last week, can’t let Colt McCoy have his way with them like he has his first three foes.

The defining statistic is what could sway your bet - Arkansas has been outscored 24-0 in the first quarter and 55-20 in the first half, while Texas has outscored its opponents 80-26 in the first half.

I’ve got Texas to take this one comfortably, but I’m tempted to take the Razorbacks to cover because if Arkansas shows up on both sides of the ball, they could make a game of it. But, that’s a big if, and that’s why this is one of the picks I’m least confident about this week.

Michigan vs. #8 Wisconsin (Current Line: Wisconsin -6)

If 3-0 Wisconsin is to show that they’re capable of pushing Ohio State for the Big Ten title, it starts here, and for 1-2 Michigan, their second season and a chance to prove that they shouldn’t be an afterthought this year starts here.

Wisconsin is the better team, and they have good reason to be favored by a decent margin. The Badgers have taken the last two in Madison, and this series has become a lot more competitive than it used to be at one time.

However, Ann Arbor hasn’t been a friendly place for the Badgers, even for Barry Alvarez’s best teams. Their last win at the Big House was in 1994, and for the last one, you have to go back to 1962. In 1998 and 2006, losses at Michigan were all that stood in Wisconsin’s way of a perfect season and being in the national title picture.

Several of their meetings in recent years have been close, and I think that will be the case again this year. If Michigan can hold on to the ball and get it going on offense, I like their chances. You always have to have an upset special in the bunch, and this is it for me this week.

I’ll be around later (either tonight or tomorrow) to give my picks on the rest of the top 25 games and a few other matchups. Until then, if you want to get a jump on making your picks for the weekend and already have an account with BetUS, go to their college football lines page, or if you don’t have an account, you can sign up and start making your bets.

Related posts on The Red Zone Report

• No related posts.