There likely weren’t too many people who penciled Michigan in to have a great first season under Rich Rodriguez, and thus far, those who didn’t have been right.
The season started with a home loss to Utah, which was followed by an uninspiring 16-6 win over Miami of Ohio. Then on Saturday, the Wolverines committed six turnovers, three of which led directly to Notre Dame touchdowns and two more deep in Notre Dame territory that eliminated any serious hope of winning in what was a 35-17 loss. That’s more painful than Charlie Weis’ blown-up knee.
It’s not all bad news, however. The ground game looks to have found its man in freshman Sam McGuffie, who followed up a 74-yard effort against Miami by running for 131 yards on 25 carries and catching four passes for 47 yards and a 40-yard touchdown against the Irish.
The defense didn’t have its best day in the opener against Utah, allowing Brian Johnson to throw for 305 yards, but things went better against Miami (252 yards allowed), and even though they let Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate hook up for plays of 48 and 60 yards, they held the Irish to only 260 total yards.
The passing game could be coming around, depending on who you ask. Steven Threet had a solid statistical performance on Saturday, going 16 of 23 for 175 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions, but he did have a crucial fumble at the start of the fourth quarter that Brian Smith returned for a decisive score when it was 28-17 and the Wolverines had the ball near midfield.
Threet seems to have put some distance between himself and Nick Sheridan, who threw two fourth-quarter interceptions after replacing Threet, and there may be a go-to target in freshman Martavious Odoms, who caught 3 passes for 57 yards against Miami and 6 for 56 against Notre Dame.
So, can it get better for Michigan, or is it only going to get worse before it gets better?
After having the week off this weekend, the next month will help decide whether Michigan have something to play for besides pride in November. They open Big Ten play with games against three teams who are currently ranked, going to Wisconsin on the 27th, hosting Illinois on Oct. 4, and after a non-conference matchup against Toledo, go to Penn State on Oct. 18.
So, the chance is there for the Wolverines to make people forget about the sputtering start and show that they still can’t be overlooked even if it is a rebuilding/transitional year, and to make a dent in the Big Ten race, even if they don’t end up being a serious contender for the title.
At the same time though, they could be 2-5 with upcoming games against Michigan State (home) and Purdue (road), who are hungry for a victory over Michigan and would love nothing more than to pile on the losses.
If it’s going to be the latter, well, it’s pretty simple. Make mistakes, and you’re going to lose more often than not. They have nine turnovers in their two losses, and in the win over Miami, they were unblemished in the turnover department.
If they’re going to have a chance at the former, it’s just as simple. The defense has to continue to play well, but the offense can’t put it on the defense to have to do it all. McGuffie’s continued emergence is a good starting point, but having production from the deep crop of backs behind him (Brandon Minor, Kevin Grady, Michael Shaw - all of whom had fumbles against Notre Dame) will put the passing offense in a position where all it needs to do is to be efficient, and with plenty of talent (albeit not much in the way of proven experience) in the receiving corps, efficiency can mean some pretty nice production.
Maybe a losing season is indeed in the cards, but it’s far too early to write them off just yet, especially with the way the schedule could work in their favor. Then again, that could be the eternal optimist in me.
