2008 NFC North Preview: Is this Minnesota’s year?
2007 was the year of surprises in the NFC North.
The Green Bay Packers surprised many by going 13-3 and advancing to the NFC Championship Game, as Brett Favre broke out of his “old man” funk and became the Brett Favre of old thanks to an MVP-caliber campaign.
The Chicago Bears, on the other hand, went from Super Bowl favorite to a disappointing, injury-hampered group of underachievers during in a 7-9 season. The once-vaunted Bears defense dropped to 28th overall, and the offense struggled due to quarterback issues, lack of a running game, dropped passes, and O-line woes. The only highlight was Devin Hester, who tied his NFL record of 6 returns for touchdowns and also caught two touchdown passes.
Both the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions vastly improved last season. Not only did the Vikings’ run defense live up to its potential, but so did rookie RB Adrian Peterson, who ran away with the NFC Offensive Rookie of the Year award like he ran from defenders (and into the hearts of America!). He reached 200 yards in two games in 2007, including an NFL-record 296 yards against the San Diego Chargers. However, the Vikings finished 8-8 and just short of the playoffs.
The Lions improved mainly due to their passing offense and got off to a stellar 6-2 start after QB Jon Kitna predicted 10 wins. However, the Lions did as the Lions do and lost seven of their last eight games to finish 7-9 and out of the postseason.
So, how should this competitive division turnout this season?
Well, there are new faces in old places in 2008. First, Aaron Rodgers will replace Brett Favre under center in Green Bay following a highly publicized divorce, and whether he wants to or not, has a world of pressure on him to at least be efficient.
The Vikings were able to obtain sack machine Jared Allen from the Kansas City Chiefs as well as former Bears wide receiver Bernard Berrian, which has many thinking the Vikings can be a contender in 2008.
The Bears cut unproductive running back Cedric Benson after two DUI incidents, and have put the control of their running game in the hands of rookie back Matt Forte and former Lions back Kevin Jones.
Lions Head Coach Rod Marinelli fired pass-happy offensive coordinator Mike Martz, and the team recently signed former Bengals running back Rudi Johnson to lighten the load on the ‘other’ Kevin Smith and on the air attack.
Destined for Glory: While every team in the NFC North has a glaring weakness, I believe the Minnesota Vikings are destined for glory this season. Sure, Tarvaris Jackson might not be there yet, but I think their defense will make them glorious.
They improved an already talented defensive by adding Allen and free-agent safety Madieu Williams, and relentless pressure could create a lot of opportunities for takeaways. Not to mention, this group should stay fresh with Adrian Peterson (and Chester Taylor) chewing up chunks of yards on the ground.
Destined to Fall: You could make a case for the Packers and Bears being set up for a slide, but I believe the Lions will be rather tame. Last season’s team showed us exactly what this team is, wildly inconsistent. One minute, they have us saying, “Their offense is damn good, and their defense is scrappy.” Then the next minute, we pull a John Kerry and say, “Ha! Typical Lions.” The offense is solid, but the defense is vulnerable, to say the least. Their youth could mean a bright future, but the present might not be so rosy.
Top Off-Season Pickups
Brian Brohm/Matt Flynn (Green Bay) -The Packers stayed true to their creed of not doing much in free agency, and in the draft, their biggest moves might have been at quarterback, where they drafted Brohm (2nd) and Flynn (7th). Flynn beat out Brohm for the backup job in camp, so he‘s got the edge for playing time if Rodgers struggles or goes down with an injury.
Jared Allen/Bernard Berrian (Minnesota) - As mentioned earlier, Allen will further strength an already-talented defense. But, what about Berrian? If you take his big-play ability and add it with Tarvaris Jackson’s deep ball, it could help boast Jackson’s confidence.
Matt Forte (Chicago) - Forte, a second-round pick out of Tulane, has emerged as the starter at running back. While he doesn‘t carry a marquee name, the Bears coaching staff raved about his ability to digest the playbook. After this preseason, it looks like he can gain extra yards with his strength and also pick up blitzes. The Bears need him to run well if they want their offense to do something.
Kevin Smith (Detroit) - The Lions all but abandoned the running game in 2007. In order to solve this problem, the Lions drafted Central Florida’s Smith, who led the nation with 2,567 yards rushing last season, just missing out on an NCAA single-season record ironically held by former Lions’ great Barry Sanders. Could that be a good omen? Hopefully.
Strengths and Weaknesses:
Strength: The defense was ranked 11th overall last season, but with a mix of youth and experience, the sky‘s the limit.
Weakness: Their weakness is a bit more symbolic because it might turn out not to be a weakness. The transition from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers could cause a chain reaction if he struggles with adapting to NFL defenses.
Strength: Their biggest strength is running the football, which is not a shocking new development. Simple as this: If Peterson continues to run like he did last year, and Taylor provides a solid #2, all Jackson has to do is be efficient.
Weakness: The Vikings’ secondary let opposing quarterbacks carve them up by allowing a league-high 264.5 passing yards. Sure, Jared Allen can cause opposing quarterbacks hell on the line, but the secondary has to do their part.
Strength: Believe it or not, there is a strength on this team, and it lies in an uncommon category, special teams. The Bears boast one of the best kickers in the NFL in Robbie Gould, who has gone 84/99 on field goals in his 3-year career.
Oh, there’s also some guy named Hester, whose game is speed, speed, and more speed. But, special teams coach Dave Toub deserves plenty of credit for creating blocking schemes to help Hester make history.
Weakness: You guessed it, offense. There are questions and unknowns, well, everywhere, from quarterback, to the running game, to the receivers, to the line.
Detroit Lions- Martz is gone, but a deep group of receivers are still there. There’s a current star in Roy Williams, a future star in Calvin Johnson, and two reliable targets in Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald.
Weakness: The first one is the offensive line. They gave up the most sacks in 2007, and little changes were made to improve this area. Also, the defense, which wasn’t very good to begin with, lost their best player in donut demon Shaun Rogers (addition by subtraction, perhaps?), and it could be a while before the younger guys gel.
Key to Success
Aaron Rodgers (Packers)- Ryan Grant was tempting to take here, but as mentioned earlier, Rodgers could cause a chain reaction that could affect the entire Packer offense. Since he is a first year starter, defenses will probably stick eight in the box against him. When that happens, Ryan Grant and the rest of their run game will go down. If Rodgers struggles from a lack of a running game, then standout receivers Donald Driver and Greg Jennings’ numbers could fall. But, if Rodgers finds a way to overcome it, then forget everything I just said.
Tarvaris Jackson (Vikings)- A lot of pressure is being put on Jackson, but here’s an interesting tidbit: Jackson went 8-4 as a starter in ‘07. How many games did the Vikings win? 8 games. Sure, he is more of a manger who threw more interceptions than touchdowns in 2007, but if he just manages the game and cuts down on his mistakes, this could help push the Vikings to the Super Bowl.
Kyle Orton (Bears)- Ah, quarterback. The position the Bears have had trouble picking since Sid Luckman retired in the 1950’s. However, they didn’t have trouble picking Kyle Orton over Rex Grossman heading into this season. Orton can limit careless turnovers that plagued Grossman. If he can at least be adequate, then it could help their hapless offense out a little bit, which is better than nothing.
Jon Kitna (Lions)-Many of you might be wondering, “Why Kitna? Shouldn’t it be their offensive line or defense?” Well, there is a method to this madness. Kitna has played admirably behind an awful offensive line and has developed a good rapport with the Lions’ receivers. However, he‘s 35 going on 36, and that age showed last season in the form of diminishing arm strength. But, the offense is changing a bit to focus on the run and keep passes short, sweet, and hard to beat.
Predictions
Champion: Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
Wild-Card: Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Underachievers (on defense): Chicago Bears (7-9)
Scrappy Fighters: Detroit Lions (6-10)
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