I’ll admit, I’ve never been a huge fan of articles that try to predict who should start and sit on my fantasy team. There are so many scoring systems and sizes of leagues one man’s start can easily be another man’s sit. So why read this one?
Three reasons:
1. I won’t waste your time with gems like “start Randy Moss this week.” If you needed that kind of advice, you really shouldn’t be playing fantasy football.
2. I won’t waste your time with kickers, tight ends, or defenses. In most leagues you would only start one of each of these anyway and no one’s carrying three kickers and wondering which one to start.
3. I’ll take responsibility for my actions. How many of these articles move on from one week to the next without ever apologizing when they screw up or bragging over their successes (ok, maybe you’ll see the bragging part). I’ll keep a running tally of hits, misses and pushes so you’ll know if I’m even the least bit credible.
So, who should be in your line-up for week one? Let’s find out.
Time to Shine
QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore: How’s that for starting off with a bang? Although a rookie, Flacco will get his first start against the lowly Bengal defense. And while Coach Harbaugh will be cautious with him, he’ll also need to allow the rookie to put the ball in the air if the Bengals’ offense lights up the Ravens’ defense (a strong possibility). He won’t set the world on fire, but 200 yards and a couple TDs isn’t out of the question.
RB Kevin Smith, Detroit: Keeping with the rookie theme, I go with Detroit’s promising young running back. If Smith is smart (or if someone smart explains it to him) he knows that week one is already a make or break week for him. Rudi Johnson can’t possibly know the playbook well enough to get too many touches and Tatum Bell is Tatum Bell so much of the load should fall to Smith. After this week, who knows. Against a less than stellar Falcon defense, Smith could easily go for 80 yards and a score.
RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets: The last thing anyone in the Jets organization wants is to see Brett Favre fall on his face (or any other body part for that matter). Since his hold on the playbook is still a little tenuous, expect the Jets to hand off early and often. Behind a new and improved offensive line, Jones should rip apart the Dolphin D. Expect Jones to gain 100 yards and score a touchdown for the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets.
WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona: There’s nothing quite like a pissed off receiver to put up big fantasy numbers. After all the off-season drama, Boldin acquiesced on just about everything and shows up for week one with his tail between his legs. Now he has something to prove and with Kurt Warner back under center, Boldin should go for 100 yards and a score against an underrated San Francisco defense.
WR Chris Chambers, San Diego: With a full training camp in the San Diego offense under his belt, Chambers is finally ready to make the leap to superstardom (or at least trying not to be so aneurysm-inducingly inconsistent). With so many other weapons, Chambers may not get a score, but should be left alone enough times to rack up 100 receiving yards.
Ride the Pine
QB Derek Anderson, Cleveland: With high expectations this year, Cleveland opens the season against one of the toughest defenses in the league. I’m not saying Anderson will crack under the pressure, but I am saying he won’t not crack under the pressure. Expect a long day for this once and soon to be backup quarterback.
RB Maurice Morris, Seattle: After years of playing second fiddle to Shaun Alexander, Morris finally gets his shot. He may envy Alexander, who gets to watch this game on TV. Playing against a tough Buffalo defense, on the road (always a risky proposition for the Seahawks), and losing goal line touches to T.J. Duckett, Morris’ stats will look eerily similar to his days as a backup.
RB Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers: Take one running back who has been held out of nearly all of training camp with a bum hamstring, add a quarterback making his first NFL start on Monday Night Football, toss in an offensive line that has been in disarray all preseason and now will most likely not have its starting center, and line it all up against the leagues best rushing defense two years running. If you have any other options at running back, sit Grant out this week.
WR Torry Holt, St. Louis: Philadelphia has arguably the best secondary in the NFL and a much improved pass rush. St. Louis has arguably the most fragile quarterback in the NFL and no one other than Holt to throw to. Call me crazy, but I think Mr. Holt is in for a long day in Philly come Sunday.
WR Bernard Berrian, Minnesota: There’s lots of good reasons why Berrian will struggle in week one. A shaky quarterback, a good Green Bay defense with two lock down cornerbacks, and the fact that Berrian just isn’t as good as his big free agent contract would indicate are all fine reasons. But maybe the biggest factor is that the Packers’ have struggled to stop the run all preseason. If you had the world’s second best running back going against an iffy defensive line, would you pass the ball? Congratulations, you’re at least as smart as Brad Childress.
