This time last year, few people would have predicted that by the time January rolled around, would have held the #1 ranking heading into the last day of the regular season on the way to a 12-2 record, and that would have won nine games and played in the Rose Bowl.

Now, the spotlight, or at least part of it, is on this matchup as the Tigers and Illini get set to duke it out tomorrow night in St. Louis. Mizzou is in the top 10 and in the mix as a national title contender, and comes in ranked in the top 20.

Like last year’s game, tomorrow’s contest will be on the ESPN family of networks, but this time, they get the mini-spotlight on ESPN. I say mini-spotlight, since Alabama-Clemson will be on for the network TV audience on ABC at the same time, but that’s what the ‘go back’ button on the remote is for, right?

When last they met, it was a blowout turned thriller that, in the end, Mizzou was rather fortunate to win in the end, in spite of their attempts to try to give it away.

If you’re not bothered to watch the video, was up 37-13 in the third quarter and well on their way to a resounding opening win, when they allowed the Illini to roar back. Backup QB Eddie McGee, who’d taken over for (blow to the head) in the first half, led the Illini to 21 unanswered points in a five-plus minute span, helped in part by two turnovers by the Tigers in their own territory, and just like that, it was 37-34.

In the end, Mizzou thwarted two late potential scoring drives with interceptions, including one by Pig Brown (who also had a 100-yard fumble return for a score) with less than a minute to play, and the Tigers eked out a 40-34 victory.

That game marked the debut of , who racked up 227 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns, catching a 25-yard touchdown pass and following it up with a 66-yard punt return score that gave the Tigers the aforementioned 24-point lead.

So, does this one have the makings of a thriller? I break down the matchup below.

Offense vs. Defense

Last season, Williams formed a formidable rushing duo with Rashard Mendenhall, combining for 2,436 total yards and 24 touchdowns. Mendenhall had only 33 yards rushing on 11 carries against last year, which would be his lowest total of the season (second lowest was 67 yards on 15 carries in a 10-6 loss to Iowa) on the way to rushing for 1,681 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Unfortunately, that success now means Mendenhall is in the NFL, and now the feature back is junior Daniel Dufrene, who ran for 294 yards and two touchdowns last season. 58 of those yards came against Mizzou, while 106 of them came in the Illini’s upset of Ohio State in Columbus.

As it happens, the strength of the Tigers’ defense is against the run, and is going to have a time of it against a front seven that returns all but defensive tackle Lorenzo Williams, last year’s team leader in sacks.

If the running game can’t get something going, Williams is going to have to throw it against a pass defense that might bend, as shown in last year‘s matchup, but has the playmaking ability to counter that. Experience and talent certainly isn’t an issue, however, with a unit led by All-American free safety William Moore.

They’ll be responsible for ensuring that the Illini’s biggest weapon in the passing game, sophomore , doesn’t have a big game. Much like Maclin, Benn’s one of those guys that has to have the ball in his hands one way or another, so he’s probably going to get at least a few carries (he had 32 for 158 yards last season). But, besides Benn, there’s not a lot of experience, which could give Mizzou’s defense an edge.

I don’t doubt Williams’ ability to make plays through the air, but in an ideal situation, the Illini need to be able to get it going on the ground to really open things up. Easier said than done there.

Advantage:

Offense vs. Defense

There’s really not a lot to say here. ’s going to throw it a lot, and has to try to slow him down. Last year, Daniel was 37 of 54 for 359 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions against , so it’s safe to say that they didn’t do that last time around.

The candidate (and Mark Scott’s pick as this year’s Heisman winner) doesn’t have a few top targets from last year, with tight end Martin Rucker and receiver Will Franklin now plying their trade on the next level, and junior Danario Alexander still out due to a torn ACL. However, he does have more than enough proven targets in Maclin, who took advantage of an Alexander injury in last year’s game to have his coming-out party, senior receiver Tommy Saunders, and senior tight end , who’s ’the guy’ now after having to share catches with Rucker the last three seasons.

So, the Illini has to contend with those guys and a few more, including junior Jared Perry and a few true freshmen who could get some early opportunities. All in all, Daniel should have no problem finding someone to throw it to.

But, at the same time, the Illini are set at corner, with All-American candidate and Brandt Vincent Dere (B.V.D., har har har, says my juvenile mind) Hicks. That’s actually one of the few positions where they’re set, as only a handful of starters return from last season. It must be said though, that while experience is a strong suit, there’s plenty of talent to go around besides Davis.

I would like to say it’s as simple as flushing Daniel out of the pocket and forcing him into errant throws, but the Illini will have to bring it just a little harder, because one of the things that Daniel thrives on is being able to make those plays on the run and having extra time to find a receiver or a running lane.

Speaking of running, sophomore Derrick Washington takes over for Tony Temple, who ran for 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons. Washington has the shiftiness to embarrass many a defender, so no missed tackles, missteps or anything of the like need to happen to make the task of stopping Mizzou even harder.

ADVANTAGE:

Special Teams vs. Special Teams

The kick coverage units for both teams have a tiny margin of error because they each have to deal with a tremendous weapon.

For , it’s Benn, who had a kick return for a touchdown last season, while for , it’s Maclin, who returned two punts and a kickoff for scores last year.

If it comes down to the kicking game, that’s an area where the Tigers might have a definitive edge, as they have one of the top kickers in the nation in Jeff Wolfert (21-25 field goals, 67-67 extra points last season), and are breaking in a new kicker in red shirt freshman Matt Eller.

will have to watch out for blocked kicks - they had three punts blocked last season, including one that Davis blocked and returned for a score last year.

Advantage:

The Final Word

It’d be more than a little fallacious on my part to say that there are miles between these two teams, but with that said, I don’t have any doubts as to who I think will win this game.

I’m no discounting ’ chances to win, and if they can force Daniel into mistakes and avoid another five-turnover performance on offense, then it’s certainly possible for the Illini to take home the victory.

GRIFF‘S GUESTIMATE: 41, 27 - I think will be able to put up some points against Mizzou’s defense, but in the end, their defense won’t be able to stop Daniel and the offense. It should be close throughout, but the Tigers should walk away with the victory.

I also elicited the predictions of a couple of fan writers from both sides, in Dan from Illinois Loyalty and Bill, a.k.a. ‘The Boy’ from Rock M Nation, and naturally, they have different takes on how it’ll turn out.

THE BOY’S PREDICTION: 34, 20 - If Mizzou continues its trend of shutting down an opponent’s #1 threat (in this case, ), will need to get a big game from RB Daniel Dufrene if they are going to keep pressure off of . And even if they move the ball well, they’ll have to hit on every single play. certainly can win, but they’ll need some nice breaks…or a porous Mizzou offensive line.

DAN’S PREDICTION: 31, 27 - is sharp and leads Mizzou out to a big lead early, but the tide shifts on the strength and depth of the Illini’s D-line. The new and improved puts together nice numbers via the air, and continues his clock-eating drive-extending abilities on the ground in the 4th quarter to secure victory.

Who do you think will come out on top in the Gateway City? Will get their run towards a national title off with a win against their rivals, or will the Illini spoil their bid before it gets started?

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