If Kansas State head coach Ron Prince could erase November 2007 from his memory, I’m sure he would.
Last year, his Wildcats headed into November at 5-3 overall and with a winning record in conference play, with a postseason berth looking like a pretty safe bet. First came a 31-20 loss to 1-8 Iowa State. Off the heels of that defeat, they went to Lincoln to face a Nebraska team that was coming off of a 76-39 whipping at Kansas, and were blown away 73-31. After falling at home to eventual Big 12 North champion Missouri, the forgettable November – and their season – came to an end with a 45-29 loss at Fresno State.
Starters Returning: 13 (7 offense, 5 defense, kicker)
Key Returnees: QB Josh Freeman, WR Deon Murphy, TE Jeron Mastrud, DE Ian Campbell, DE/LB Eric Childs, LB Reggie Walker, LB Antwon Moore, FS Chris Carney, SS Gary Chandler, K Brooks Rossman
Key Losses: WR Jordy Nelson, RB James Johnson, RB Leon Patton (indefinitely suspended)
Key Newcomers: WR Aubrey Quarles, WR Attrail Snipes, WR Brandon Banks, LG Wade Weibert, RB Logan Dold, LB Olu Hall (transfer from Virginia), LB Grant Valentine, LB Hanson Sekona, LB Ula Pomele, LB Antonio Felder, CB Blair Irvin, CB Billy McClellan, DT Daniel Calvin
Names to Remember
Offense
1. Josh Freeman, QB, Jr.: Freeman made a huge step in development from his freshman (51.9 completion %, 6 TD, 15 INT) to his sophomore year, as he threw for 3,353 yards (63.3 comp. %) and 18 touchdowns, with his interceptions dropping to 11.
2. Deon Murphy, WR, Sr.: Last season, the Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year put together a solid season behind Nelson, catching 57 passes for 605 yards and five scores, and with Nelson gone, the spotlight will be on Murphy to be Freeman’s go-to guy. He’ll also be just as much of a weapon as a returner, as he averaged 17.1 yards per punt return last season with one touchdown return.
3. Keithen Valentine, Jr., & Logan Dold, RB, Fr.: With likely starter Leon Patton suspended due to off-field issues, that leaves open a hole for an unproven back to step up and lead K-State’s run game. Valentine, a walk-on JC transfer, looks to have the edge right now, but Dold, an in-state product and prolific rusher in high school who was actually projected as a safety, will be heard from.
Defense
1. Ian Campbell, DE, Sr.: After a monster sophomore season (67 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks), Campbell was shifted between end and outside linebacker last season, and even though he still earned all-conference honors, his numbers dropped to 45 tackles, 11 TFL, and 4.5 sacks. Now, he’s back at end, and he should be quite the terror this season.
2. Chris Carney, FS, Jr.: Last season, Carney led the Wildcats in interceptions with four and he also had 64 tackles. Look for him to contend for all-conference honors this season.
3. Gary Chandler, SS, Sr.: Chandler was voted the Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year by the league’s coaches last season after recording 54 tackles (4.5 TFL). Like Carney, he should contend for all-conference honors this year.
Eddie’s Essentials
1. The JC effect: Thinking of the future is great, but to get to the future, you have to do well in the present, and with that in mind, K-State loaded up on the JC recruits in their 2008 class, addressing need positions like receiver, linebacker, and cornerback. Many of those transfers will play key roles, whether as starters or key reserves, especially on defense.
2. Defense, defense, defense: The defense needs to be consistently better this season, and though there’s just a handful of starters returning and a lot of unproven players/JC transfers/newcomers set to make up the starting unit and top backups, there is a lot of potential for the defense to at least be solid.
3. Staying strong for the stretch run: After the way things crumbled at the end of last season, avoiding a similar collapse come this November is a must. The roadies at Kansas and Missouri may well be losses, but they end the regular season with two winnable home games against Nebraska and Iowa State, who were the first two of those four straight defeats to end last season.
2008 Schedule
8/30 vs. North Texas – Blowout Win
9/6 vs. Montana State – Blowout Win
9/17 at Louisville – Close Win
9/27 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette – Blowout Win
10/4 vs. Texas Tech – Close Loss
10/11 at Texas A&M – Close Loss
10/18 at Colorado – Close Loss
10/25 vs. Oklahoma – Close Win
11/1 at Kansas – Double-Digit Loss
11/8 at Missouri – Double-Digit Loss
11/15 vs. Nebraska – Close Win
11/22 vs. Iowa State – Double-Digit Win
Projected Record: 7-5, 3-5 Big 12 – Even with the losing conference record, the seven wins should be good enough for the postseason.
Best-Case Record: 9-3, 5-3 Big 12 – Texas A&M and Colorado are both winnable, and you can’t write off their chances to knock off Texas Tech at home.
Worst-Case Record: 4-8, 1-7 Big 12 – Louisville could hold serve at home, Oklahoma could leave unscathed, and either Nebraska or Iowa State could very well walk away with a win.
Swing Games: 9/17 at Louisville, 10/4 vs. Texas Tech, 10/11 at Texas A&M, 10/18 at Colorado, 10/25 vs. Oklahoma, 11/15 vs. Nebraska
Upset Alert: Oct. 25 vs. Oklahoma – While Texas might be all too happy to not have the Wildcats on their schedule after back-to-back upset losses in 2006 and 2007, their gain might be Oklahoma’s loss, literally.
Key Game(s): Oct. 4 vs. Texas Tech – All those high hopes that folks have for Texas Tech could be dashed in their Big 12 opener if they can’t leave Manhattan with a victory. Completely stopping Texas Tech’s powerful offense may be a tall task, but if Freeman and the offense can score some points, and the defense can force Graham Harrell into some mistakes and get some stops, then an upset could be in store.
Quick Out-look
Sometimes recruiting a lot of guys to win in the short-term works, sometimes it doesn’t. But, to say that Ron Prince will be relying solely on a bunch of newcomers to produce a winning product in ‘08 would be wide of the mark. Though the juco guys will definitely play a major role in whatever success Kansas State has this season, there are experienced pieces on both sides of the ball to lead the way.
The passing game will do well, provided Freeman continues to progress and lower the mistakes. Murphy and the JC receivers will get plenty of balls thrown their way, and it doesn’t hurt to have a reliable receiver in tight end Mastrud. Patton’s suspension certainly came at a bad time, but that just means someone else – or multiple backs – get to step up. All the better for the success of the offense is the offensive line, which returns three starters and should be a solid unit.
The spotlight, however, will be on the defense. There is a solid core of proven returnees in the four Cs, Walker, and Moore. If Olu Hall lives up to his potential, he could be a big-time player, and if the new starters and newcomers can produce, the defense has a world of potential. The guy to watch for is Moore. He had sacks in each of the first two games last season before going down with a season-ending injury in that second game against San Jose State, and if he can have an injury-free senior campaign, he just adds one more rusher for opponents to worry about.
Special teams is a strength for K-State, with Rossman back after hitting 22 of 28 field goals last season. He will need to be better from longer distances though, as he hit only 4 of 9 field goals from 40 yards or more. And, as big as Murphy will be in the passing game, he’s going to generate plenty of excitement as a returner – if teams are willing to kick to him regularly.
The Wildcats have an excellent chance at starting 4-0, provided they can win at Louisville in the oddly-scheduled Wednesday night matchup. The conference schedule isn’t exactly very generous, as their hopes at wins either hinge on upsets of ranked teams at home or beating a couple of pretty decent opponents on the road.
If they can come out of that six-game stretch from Texas Tech to Missouri without having lost all six, they should still be in the postseason picture heading into the final two games, where they won’t have any room for a slip-up, but should be able to win to get to at least seven wins, which should mean postseason.
Now, if the defense comes together, the running game does well, and Freeman doesn’t have a drop-off, the Wildcats could do more than just survive through that rigorous stretch and push for at least eight wins, but with the way the schedule shakes out, seven in the regular season should do the trick and get them in a decent bowl.
Anything short of the postseason? Well, that’s something that I’m sure Prince or any K-State fan wants to think about right now.
