2008 Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview: Is this the year the Red Raiders rise to the top of the Big 12?
Few teams have more of a spotlight on them heading into the 2008 season than the Texas Tech Red Raiders do.
The Red Raiders have been consistently good throughout Mike Leach’s tenure in Lubbock, and have won at least eight games in six straight seasons.
But, this is the season that the Red Raiders appeared destined to be great, and to push Texas and Oklahoma for the Big 12 South title and a potential BCS berth.
Can Tech rise to the occasion and produce a historic season for the program? Here’s how we think things will pan out for the Red Raiders in 2008 and what we think it’ll take for them to reach great heights.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Coach: Mike Leach (9th year at Texas Tech, 65-37 record)
2007 Record: 9-4, 4-4 Big 12, beat Virginia in Gator Bowl
Starters Returning: 19 (10 offense, 8 defense, punter)
Key Returnees: QB Graham Harrell, WR Michael Crabtree, WR Eric Morris, WR Edward Britton, RB Shannon Woods, LT Rylan Reed, LG Louis Vasquez, RG Brandon Carter, RT Marlon Winn, C Stephen Hamby, DE Brandon Williams, DE Jake Ratliff, DT Colby Whitlock, DT Rajon Henley, LB Marlon Williams, LB Brian Duncan, CB Jamar Wall, FS Darcel McBath, P Jonathan LeCour
Key Losses: WR Danny Amendola, CB Chris Parker, SS Joe Garcia, K Alex Trlica
2008 Schedule
8/30 vs. Eastern Washington - Blowout Win
9/6 at Nevada - Double-Digit Win
9/13 vs. SMU - Double-Digit Win
9/20 vs. Massachusetts - Blowout Win
10/4 at Kansas State - Close Win
10/11 vs. Nebraska - Double-Digit Win
10/18 at Texas A&M - Close Win
10/25 at Kansas - Close Loss
11/1 vs. Texas - Close Win
11/8 vs. Oklahoma State - Double-Digit Win
11/22 at Oklahoma - Close Loss
11/29 vs. Baylor - Blowout Win
Projected Record: 10-2, 6-2 Big 12 - Good enough for a BCS berth? Maybe, maybe not, but no worse than the Cotton.
Best-Case Record: 11-1, 7-1 Big 12 - I had them originally penciled in to go 11-1, but I’m not so sure that trip to Lawrence will be a winning one. But if they do win that one, beat either UT or OU, win every other game, and the BCS beckons.
Worst-Case Record: 8-4, 4-4 Big 12 - That’s a nice record in many years, but not this year. The Red Raiders would much rather remember the BCS, not the Alamo or something equally as disappointing.
Swing Games: 10/4 at Kansas State, 10/18 at Texas A&M, 10/25 at Kansas, 11/1 vs. Texas, 11/22 at Oklahoma
Upset Alert: Sept. 6 at Nevada - Laugh now, but it’s not nearly as outlandish as it may sound. The Wolfpack have a very explosive offense, with QB Colin Kaepernick (2,175 yards, 19 TD, 3 INT passing, 593 yards, 6 TD rushing in ‘07) and RB Luke Lippincott (1,420 yards rushing, 18 total touchdowns last season), and early-season road trips are never a cakewalk. In the end, Tech’s offense should wear out Nevada’s defense and pull away for a comfortable win, but it may not come without a serious scare.
Key Game(s): Oct. 25 at Kansas and Nov. 1 vs. Texas - The Red Raiders have a big three-game stretch where they go to Texas A&M, go to Kansas, and then host Texas, and while taking all three games would likely ensure that their Big 12 South title hopes are in intact well into November, they can ill-afford to go less than 2-1.
While not having Missouri on the schedule this season is nice, Kansas doesn’t exactly present a huge drop-off, as the Jayhawks come into the season as a fellow top-15 team. And then, of course, there is the matter of breaking that stranglehold that Texas has on them in a game that stands to be a thriller.
2008 Outlook
Texas Tech’s offense doesn’t exactly need much of an introduction, but I’m giving them one anyway.
In Lubbock, they like to throw it, and throw it, and then throw it some more. And for good reason, with the best QB-WR combo in the nation in Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree.
Reaching 10,000 yards over the course of four seasons is quite an accomplishment in itself, but Harrell has done it in two seasons, as he enters his senior season with 10,682 yards passing and 89 touchdowns. Last season, he led the nation in both categories, throwing for 5,705 yards and 48 touchdowns.
It’s not all sexy numbers for Harrell though. 14 interceptions in more than 700 attempts is a relatively small number, but ideally, you’d like to see those numbers more towards the single digits. Eight of those interceptions came in back-to-back losses to Missouri and Colorado, the latter of which saw one returned for a touchdown and another come during a potential scoring drive in what proved to be a 31-26 loss.
If Harrell can match or better his 2007 numbers (the good ones), he’ll surpass the career touchdown passes mark that Hawaii’s Colt Brennan broke only last year, one can venture a pretty good guess that when he does break the record, there’s a more than fair chance that Crabtree will be on the receiving end.
How can you top a freshman campaign that saw you catch for 134 passes for 1,962 yards and 22 touchdowns, and become the first freshman to win the Biletnikoff Award? He’s certainly set the bar high for himself, but with as many times as Harrell’s going to throw it to him, don’t bet against him doing it again. Enjoy it whie it lasts, folks, because Crabtree is already being projected as a high first-round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft (he’s a redshirt sophomore, so he’ll be eligible).
Want to stick your entire secondary, the marching band, and the cheerleading squad on him? Go right ahead, but you’re just going to get burned by someone else. Eric Morris (66 catches, 690 yards, 9 TD) and Edward Britton (43-583-4) both return after being regular targets for Harrell last season, and (at least) one of them is a good bet to hit the century mark in catches along with Crabtree. Also looking to step into a significant role is sophomore Detron Lewis, who caught eight passes for 101 yards and two touchdowns last season.
Now, I know, tossing a quick pass to one of the receivers for an eight or nine-yard gain is just as successful as giving it to the running back and letting him do it, and I know Mike Leach’s offensive philosophy is very, very successful the way it is, but the running game is a facet of the offense that needs to have a regular presence, much more so than the 61.4 yards that it averaged per game last season.
Senior Shannon Woods has the potential to have a monster senior season, if he’s in 2006 form. That season, Woods ran for 926 yards and 10 touchdowns, but last season, he played in only eight games before having his season ended due to injury, and before he went out, he had run for 439 yards and eight touchdowns.
Along with Woods is a very promising sophomore in Aaron Crawford, who ran for 185 yards and three touchdowns in seven games, and redshirt sophomore Baron Batch, a former four-star recruit who missed last season due to injury.
Naturally, all three backs are going to have a prominent role in the passing game, and will certainly rack up plenty of catches and yards through the air, but there’s no reason why Tech can’t have a productive running game alongside their prolific passing game, and in fact, it’s better for the offense in the end if that’s the case, because sometimes you need to get those hard yards in key situations.
But, we know the focus of the Tech offense is the passing game, and every defense Harrell and the Red Raiders face will know that too, but stopping them is another thing entirely.
And getting to Harrell? Easier said than done. Tech’s offensive line is filled with big bodies, and they’re going to be in charge of making sure Harrell has plenty of time to throw (not that he needs it all the time), and on the odd occasion that a running play is called, open up the lanes for big gains.
The offense is going to put up untold amounts of statistics that numbers nerds like me love to look at, but if the Red Raiders really want to do something this year, they’re going to have to stop people.
Stopping the run is an area that needs to see a great improvement, as the Red Raiders gave up 171 yards per game on the ground last season. Not the worst number in the world, especially considering how much teams ran it against them (577 rushing attempts in 13 games).
Being better against the run starts with the front seven, which returns the majority of its key players from last year.
The defensive line returns all four of its primary starters, in ends Brandon Williams and Jake Ratliff and tackles Colby Whitlock and Rajon Henley. The star of the unit is Williams, who had a breakout sophomore campaign with 41 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, and five sacks, the last two of which led the team.
Two of last year’s starting linebackers are also back in junior Marlon Williams (71 tackles) and sophomore Brian Duncan (62 tackles). Not only does the front seven need to be strong against the run, but you’d like to see more results from forays into the backfield.
The strength of the defense last season was the pass defense, which allowed only 188.4 yards per game last year. Granted, opponents did run it a lot more, but when they did throw it, they completed only 54.9% of their attempts.
The secondary takes a hit with the losses of cornerback Chris Parker (36 tackles, INT, 11 pass breakups) and strong safety Joe Garcia, who led the team in tackles in 2007 with 79, but sophomore corner Jamar Wall picked off five passes last season, and free safety Darcel McBath was second on the team in tackles (72), interceptions (two), and pass breakups (eight).
Really, there’s no reason why the Red Raiders shouldn’t have a very good defense, but that’s one of those things that I’ll remain cautiously optimistic on until I actually see them perform.
Texas Tech doesn’t have a lethal non-conference schedule, but games against the likes of Nevada and SMU will provide an opportunity to see how the defense can perform against some high-powered offenses.
Besides the defense, the two things that will define Tech’s year and whether it ends with the Gator Bowl or Holiday Bowl, or if they end up in, at worst, the Cotton Bowl, is all on stepping up week in, week out.
Look at their results from the last several seasons, and you’ll see a lot of losses that shouldn’t be there. Losses to Colorado in each of the last two seasons, neither of which have any excuses. A loss to a bad Oklahoma State team in 2005 (in Stillwater, yes, but sandwiched between wins against Texas A&M and Oklahoma).
Provided they win all of the games that they should win, then there’s the issue of winning the big ones. To win the Big 12 South, and to be in the race for at least an at-large BCS berth, you need to beat Texas and/or Oklahoma, and along with both of those divisional opponents, the Red Raiders have those back-to-back trips to College Station and Lawrence.
College Football News has the Red Raiders going 11-1, and frankly, I don’t see why they shouldn’t do that, or at least 10-2. It’ll be a battle for what amounts to an automatic BCS berth, a likely at-large BCS berth, and the Cotton Bowl consolation prize, 11-1 might be the only way to assure anything. But, the pieces are there, the path is laid out for them, and it’s just time to take care of business.
Considering that I’m no expert on Texas Tech, I suggest that you check out someone who is, in Seth over at Double T Nation.
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