We’ll Be Back After These Messages - A Fantasy Guide to Kickers and Defenses
While commercials are thought of as nuisances for the most part, they can sometimes be so memorable that they become part of our national fabric. Years after we’ve forgotten what the ad was for, we remember the catch phrases that made them great.
Defenses and kickers are the commercials of fantasy football. In many cases, there seems to be little, if any, difference between them. For most fantasy owners, they are an afterthought being relegated to the final few rounds of the draft. Yet if you can get a good one (like the 2000 Ravens defense), it can give you the edge to dominate your league.
So let’s give some long overdue credit to commercials as we take a closer look at the defenses and kickers you may want for your fantasy team in 2008.
Time to make the doughnuts - Dunkin Donuts
He didn’t look like much more than a moustache and hat, but the Dunkin Donuts guy made miracles happen. Day and night, he delivered the goods - much like the defenses and kickers on this list. While you certainly wouldn’t want to draft either of these positions in round one, picking them a little higher than you normally would may serve you well throughout this fantasy season.
Mason Crosby GB: Crosby surprised just about everyone with his incredible rookie year. Can he repeat his success in 2008? Absolutely. He should improve his long range kicking with a year of experience under his belt, and a young quarterback may mean fewer touchdowns and more field goal opportunities. He’s quite possibly the best kicker in this year’s draft.
Nick Folk DAL: Folk and Crosby mark a changing of the guard among kickers in fantasy drafts this season. After a remarkable rookie year, Folk finds himself in the enviable position of kicking for one of the best offenses in the NFL. Accurate from longer ranges, Wade Phillips will not be shy about letting Folk bomb away on rangier field goals attempts. Look for Folk to match or improve upon last year’s numbers.
Shayne Graham CIN: He’s certainly not as big a name as other kickers, nor does he have the ability to blast a 56-yard field goal, but over the last four seasons, no one has been more consistent than this guy. Sometimes the best thing you can get from the kicker position is a solid number every week, and while Graham doesn’t have a ton of 20 point weeks in him, he should give you 7-9 points nearly every week and that’s almost as good.
Nate Kaeding SD: Like Shayne Graham, Kaeding won’t impress you with a huge leg or a ton of field goals, but what he will give you is a consistent kicker playing with an offense that continues to get better. Playing in warm weather stadiums in three of the four fantasy playoff weeks is an added benefit.
Phil Dawson CLE: A kicker with a strong leg coupled with an explosive offense usually means fantasy gold and this combination in Cleveland is just that. The Browns offense looks even better this year meaning Dawson should put up consistently good numbers in ‘08. The biggest drawback to Dawson is the three cold weather venues the Browns play in to wrap up the season.
San Diego Chargers: The beauty of San Diego’s defense is they can beat you so many ways. They get sacks, they pick off passes, they force fumbles, they score touchdowns. As an added benefit, they play in a division that has only one really good offense and that also happens to belong to San Diego. If you’re going to pick a defense a round early, make it San Diego - they always stay classy.
Chicago Bears: The Bears defense is built around a guy who doesn’t play defense, but if your league counts special teams touchdowns towards your defensive score, the Bears move up a level because of Devin Hester. Yet even without Hester’s points, Chicago should have an improved defense this year if Mike Brown can stay healthy. Even though Brian Urlacher and Tommie Harris get most of the attention (and money), Mike Brown is the heart and soul of that defense. As long as he’s in the line-up, the Bears will be a solid fantasy choice.
Tennessee Titans: The Titans defense has only one major flaw: the Titan offense. If Tennessee’s offense can give them even a little help this season, they should put up very good fantasy numbers. Their sack and turnover rate was high last season. About the only thing they didn’t do was score off of those turnovers. Then again, scoring wasn’t very popular on offense in Tennessee either.
Dallas Cowboys: Lots of sacks, lots of turnovers, and now Pacman Jones (assuming he is reinstated). In addition to his defense, his return skills could add value to the Dallas D. Look for the Cowboys’ high pressure defense to continue to put up big numbers in the ‘08 season.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Consistency is the key to the Jags Defense in ‘08. While they don’t have a ton of playmakers, their scheme is rock-solid and they give a consistent performance nearly every week. Getting to play the NFC North and their weak offenses won’t hurt either.
Green Bay Packers: Green Bays defense sputtered out at the end of ‘07 which leave their overall numbers looking rather average. However, for the first half of the year, they were one of the top defensive units in the league. A new emphasis on blitzing and pressuring the quarterback from different angles may make the Pack a force for the ‘08 season.
Where’s the beef? - Wendy’s
Anytime a catch phrase from a commercial is referenced by a would-be president of the United States, you know you’re on to something. Never has a old lady seemed so outraged over the lack of meat in a fast food product. If that old lady were alive today, she would be equally disgusted by the production of these defenses and kickers. Listen to your elders and avoid these lackluster performers.
Neil Rackers ARI: Rackers has been living off of his ‘05 season for too long now. His long range accuracy is not what it should be and the Cardinal offense will not give him 40+ field goal chances this year. He’s no more than an average fantasy option for ‘08.
Ryan Longwell MIN: When Ryan Longwell kicked in Green Bay, people wondered what a kicker with his talent would do if only he didn’t have to ply his trade under such inclement conditions. The answer is “not much.” Since joining Minnesota, Longwell has been less than spectacular (although in all fairness, he has been accurate - the Vikings just don’t give him many opportunities). Stay away until the Minnesota offense figures things out.
Baltimore Ravens: Although the Ravens still have plenty of big names of the defensive side of the ball, those names are getting pretty old. In fact, I believe a few of those names are on the Declaration of Independence. Age is starting to take it’s toll on Ray Lewis, Chris McAllister, Trevor Pryce, and the crew. Six fumble recoveries tied for last in the league in ‘07 - a sure sign that those old bodies aren’t as quick to the ball anymore. Draft the Ravens? Nevermore.
Cleveland Browns: What can Brown do for you? Not much. Near the bottom of the league in sacks and forced fumbles in ‘07, the addition of two defensive lineman won’t negate the holes in the secondary. All the hype surrounding the new and improved Browns defense is just that - hype.
Move over bacon, now there’s something meatier! - Sizzlean
While you won’t find Sizzlean in your grocer’s freezer anymore, it’s message still lives on today. These defenses and kickers are the bacon of the NFL. They may be tasty, but they are full of fat and cholesterol and probably not worth all the risks that come with them. It’s time to find something meatier than these choices for your defense and kicker.
Adam Vinatieri IND: While Vinatieri is still a good kicker, there are three big reasons why you shouldn’t draft him. 1.) Despite playing home games in a dome, he failed to make even one kick from beyond 39 yards last season. 2.) The Colts offense is so good, they won’t give him the number of field goal attempts he needs to put him among the elite kickers in the NFL. 3.) He is such a big name kicker, he will probably be the second or third kicker off the boards in most drafts, meaning you will have to draft him higher than you really should. Still a solid choice, but let someone else use the pick on him.
Rob Bironas TEN: Just looking at his ‘07 totals, Bironas had a monster fantasy year. A closer look reveals a few red flags, however. While he did make an impressive 35 field goals last season, eight were in one game, leaving only 27 field goals in the remaining 15 games - a bit more pedestrian numbers. He failed to score 100 points in either of his first two seasons in the league - was ‘07 the start of a trend or an anomaly that won’t be repeated anytime soon? Lastly, Tennessee’s offense can’t be as bad in the red zone as it was last year can it? Let someone else grab him too early — you’ll be disappointed with Bironas as your kicker.
Jason Hanson DET: Hanson has been a reliable fantasy kicker for most of his long and successful career. However, as he struggles with leg issues during training camp, you may want to pass on him and look for someone else. If he is healthy at some point during the season, he may make a nice mid-season pickup.
Kris Brown HOU: Brown 86.2% accuracy rating was as good as it’s ever been in ‘07. The thing is, most years he’s nowhere near that good. He also tied a career high with five 50+ yard field goals last year - don’t expect him to match that number this year either. Brown’s history tells us to expect a drop-off in production in ‘08. Don’t draft him based on his ‘07 numbers.
Rian Lindell BUF: All signs point to a rough ‘08 season for Lindell. Buffalo’s climate is no friend to field goal kickers, his offense struggles to move the ball past midfield, and his last three games are all in cold weather stadiums. I’d avoid him in this year’s draft.
Lawrence Tynes NYG: While Tynes did have a decent season last year, that game winning kick in Lambeau probably made him seem better than he really is. Until he can put together a few more productive seasons, he’s nothing more that a one-year-wonder kicking in a tough stadium with even tougher fans.
David Akers PHI: See Adam Vinatieri.
Minnesota Vikings: A good defense in the NFL doesn’t always mean a good fantasy defense. The Vikings should improve their sack total from a season ago with the addition of Jared Allen, but the secondary is still soft. Amazingly, they returned six of their 15 interceptions for scores last year. That kind of percentage is hard to duplicate. Expect them to be solid, but drafted ahead of where they should be.
Indianapolis Colts: For years now, Tony Dungy has been playing defense with smoke and mirrors. Always undersized and always playing second fiddle in the draft to Indy’s high powered offense, the Colts D has found a way to get it done. However, if you draft the Colts you need to count on two highly suspect things: the health of Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders. When those two are healthy, it’s a totally different team - they’re just rarely healthy. If you can get them at a value, go ahead and draft them - just make sure you have a plan B.
New England Patriots: While they put up very good numbers in ‘07, the Patriots lost half their secondary and their linebackers have ripened, aged, and are now beginning to decompose. Jerod Mayo should help, but with some improved (although still not great) offenses in the AFC East, you can expect some decline from the Pats’ D this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers were always a safe fantasy bet because of their high turnover rate and aggressive blitz packages. But only eleven picks last year should be a warning sign for this season. They now play in a division with some very good offenses, and the rest of their schedule isn’t that easy either with games against Indy, San Diego, and the Patriots. Look for the trend that started in ‘07 to continue this year.
“Pretty sneaky, Sis!” - Connect Four
It wasn’t quite checkers and it wasn’t quite tic-tac-toe, but Connect Four apparently took a great deal of chicanery to win. A crafty diagonal victory led to this classic commercial line. These defenses and kickers may not be the sexy picks in your fantasy leagues, but they may be sneaky good this year and make you look like a genius if you can grab them in the later rounds.
Stephen Gostkowski NE: In a season that saw the Patriots break scoring records left and right, Gostkowski put up rather pedestrian numbers. Part of the problem was that he only attempted 24 field goal attempts all year. Don’t expect his 2008 number to be that low. The AFC East teams are mildly better this year and although the Pats have the easiest schedule in football on paper, they won’t have the same offensive success they had last year. More field goal opportunities means more value for Gostkowski in ‘08.
Robbie Gould CHI: Gould’s numbers dropped some from his rookie year of ‘06, but that’s what happens when you mix a good kicker with a lousy offense. Sadly for Gould, this year Chicago’s offense won’t be much better. This may be reason enough for some owners to let him slip a round. Don’t be afraid to grab him. He will still put up big numbers for a team that will often have to settle for field goals. One word of warning: three of his final four games will be in December in Chicago - not exactly ideal kicking conditions.
Matt Prater DEN: If you enjoy putting off drafting a kicker until your final pick, Prater may be your guy. After bombing in Atlanta last year, he is impressing nearly everyone in Denver during training camp. The Bronco offense should give him plenty of field goal chances, and the Mile High City should help him kick a few extra long ones if your league rewards longer field goals. A gamble to be sure, but one that might be worth taking.
Matt Stover BAL: Stover has scored over 100 points in 11 of his last 14 seasons. His consistency and accuracy are why he still has a job at the age of 40. If you missed out on the elite kickers or just want to wait a little longer than most to grab one, you could do much worse than a proven veteran who plays with a struggling offense.
Jeff Reed PIT: Reed would be mentioned along with the premier kickers in the game if he didn’t kick at Heinz Field, which is statistically the most difficult place to kick field goals in the NFL. Here’s what could make Reed a steal in your draft - if your fantasy Super Bowl is in week 16 instead of 17, Reed’s final two games would be in Baltimore and Tennessee. If your league’s final week matches the NFL schedule, then he’s home for the championship game, which is not nearly as appealing.
Josh Scobee JAC: Scobee plays in one of those systems that are made for fantasy kickers. A dominant defense that only needs a few points to win. Why try something risky on third and long when we can just position ourselves for a field goal? Scobee needs to stay healthy this year, but if he does, he should be a valuable kicker in most fantasy leagues.
Josh Brown STL: Brown’s success depends largely on if Stephen Jackson ends his holdout. If so, the Rams still have some decent weapons and play in a kicker friendly dome. With the Ram offense in tact, Brown is a solid fantasy choice.
New York Giants: The retirement of Michael Strahan has left some wondering if the Giants D will be as good as the ‘07 model. You can use that doubt to your advantage. The Giants defense will be fine. Justin Tuck will take Strahan’s spot, and the D in New York is as much about scheme as it is about talent. Expect lots of sacks and an increase in turnovers from the G-Men this year.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills defense had the distinct disadvantage of playing against two offenses in most games last year as the Buffalo offense hurt them more than it helped. How do you intercept Tony Romo five times in a game and still lose??? Looking to ‘08, the Bills offense should be better and the defense will be able to rest a bit more. That should result in some improved numbers in ‘08.
Seattle Seahawks: If your league reduces a defenses score based on points allowed, the Seahawks aren’t quite as good as some of the others on this list. But while they may give up more points than you may like, they get tons of sacks and liters of turnovers, especially at home. They’re worth a late round pick if only for the games they play in Seattle.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles made some nice moves to improve the aging defense of a year ago. Asante Samuel may be the big name guy, but Chris Clemons should add enough pass rush to increase their turnovers. Look for this revamped defense to sneak up on a few teams this year.
Oakland Raiders: The Raiders’ defense took a step backward after having a very solid year in ‘06. Look for them to rebound this season. The offense couldn’t have been worse last year, and kept the D on the field way too much. Jamarcus Russell and Run DMC should help give the Oakland defense some much needed rest and help to improve their numbers in ‘08.
Arizona Cardinals: Arizona has been a team that has been trying to turn the corner for the last four or five years. While they may not get all the way around the corner this year, they should be pushing for the playoffs in ‘08. As the offense continues to grow, it should help a defense that put up very respectable fantasy numbers last year. A late round flyer on the Cardinal D could pay big dividends for your fantasy team this year.
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