2008 Arizona State Sun Devils Preview: Can Carpenter lead the Sun Devils to a championship?
It didn’t take long for Dennis Erickson to make his mark at Arizona State. The well-traveled Erickson was brought to the Tempe to take the Sun Devils to heights that Dirk Koetter wasn’t able to, and in just one season, he did just that. ASU started off the season 8-0, and not only did they have a chance to win the Pac-10 title outright and gain an automatic BCS berth, but they were also in the thick of the national title race.
It wasn’t to be though, as losses to Oregon and USC ended both of those hopes, although they did clinch a share of the conference title with USC with a 7-2 mark. The season ended with a loss to Texas in the Holiday Bowl, but the 10 wins that the Sun Devils totaled were the program’s best since Bruce Snyder’s 1996 team won 11 games and came agonizingly close to a national championship.
This season, hopes are high for Arizona State, and Erickson’s got the Sun Devils in position to show that they’re one of the best of the best. But, a tough schedule awaits, and there is one big, big question that needs to be answered quickly.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Coach: Dennis Erickson (2nd year at Arizona State, 10-3, 158-68-1)
2007 Record: 10-3, 7-2 Pac-10 (tied for 1st), lost to Texas in Holiday Bowl
Starters Returning: 15 (7 offense, 7 defense, kicker/punter)
Key Returnees: QB Rudy Carpenter, RB Keegan Herring, RB Dmitri Nance, WR Mike Jones, WR Chris McGaha, WR Kyle Williams, DE Dexter Davis, DE Luis Vasquez, DT David Smith, LB Travis Goethel, CB Omar Bolden, FS Troy Nolan, SS Rodney Cox, K/P Thomas Weber
Key Losses: RB Ryan Torain, WR Rudy Burgess, TE Brent Miller, DT Michael Marquardt, LB Robert James, CB Justin Tryon, SS Josh Barrett
2008 Schedule
8/30 vs. Northern Arizona
9/6 vs. Stanford
9/13 vs. UNLV
9/20 vs. Georgia
10/4 at Cal
10/11 at USC
10/25 vs. Oregon
11/1 at Oregon State
11/8 at Washington
11/15 vs. Washington State
11/28 vs. UCLA
12/6 at Arizona
Key Game: Sept. 20 vs. Georgia - Georgia should come into this one #1 in at least one of the major polls. If the Sun Devils could pull off the upset, it could show the nation how much potential they have to be one of the best in the country this year, and it could also catapult Rudy Carpenter into the Heisman race.
2008 Outlook
As go Rudy Carpenter and the Sun Devils’ offense, so go their hopes of fulfilling the high expectations that are on them.
Last season, Carpenter threw for 3,202 yards and 25 touchdowns, which puts him within reach of 10,000 yards (7,998 yards) and 100 touchdowns (65 in three seasons). Hopes have been high for him since the stellar half-season he had as a freshman in 2005 (2,273 yards, 68.4% completion rate, 17 TD, 2 INT), and after an inconsistent 2006 (55.4% completion rate, 23 TD, 14 INT), Carpenter made big steps in the right direction last season, and he has the chance to be a Heisman candidate as a senior.
10,000 yards and 100 touchdowns are certainly reachable with several experienced targets returning, led by Mike Jones (46 catches, 769 yards, 10 TD) and Chris McGaha (61-830-1). Also back is junior Kyle Williams (29-360-6) and Kerry Taylor (8-53-1), who will get plenty of catches behind Jones and McGaha. Freshman receiver Gerrell Robinson, a top-100 prospect according to Rivals, is expected to contribute significantly early on and could even jump into a starting role.
Tight ends always play an integral part in ASU’s offense, and tight ends Andrew Pettes and Jovon Williams, who were reserves last season, should both play key roles.
The big question is if Carpenter’s offensive line will keep him upright. That, to say the very least, was an issue last season, as the Sun Devils surrendered 55 sacks. That’s an average of more than four per game, which, by average, means that their offensive line was more porous than the co-worst in the NFL, Kansas City and San Francisco, who both allowed 55 sacks in 16 games.
That offensive line will also have to be better in order to benefit the run game, which averaged only 3.2 yards per carry last year. If it happens, Keegan Herring (815 yards, 5 TD in ’07) and Dmitri Nance (500 yards, 7 TD) can be one of the top rushing tandems in the country. The Sun Devils won’t be starved for options in the backfield, which includes a talented freshman in Ryan Bass, who‘s joined by high school teammates and freshmen linebackers Brandon Magee and Shelly Lyons, who should compete for early playing time.
It does say something about the talent that you have on offense if you’re able to produce pretty good numbers (32.3 points, 399.6 yards per game) with a bad offensive line, but that’s not something you want to test too many times.
The defense will also have to perform, with several high-powered offenses set to test them. Seven starters return from a unit that, minus a select few games, was pretty solid, allowing 22.5 points and 345.2 yards per game last season.
The defensive line may not be able to rack up as many sacks as the O-line allows, but they have should get a few, thanks to the duo of ends Dexter Davis (33 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks) and Luis Vasquez (43 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks). At tackle, senior David Smith started all 13 games last season and recorded 22 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, and an interception last season, and he returns, while at the other starting spot, sophomore Jonathan English has the strength to be a force on the inside. ASU also picked up two quality recruits that should make an immediate impact in Spencer Gasu and Lawrence Guy.
There’s also some turnover at linebacker, where star ‘backer Robert James leaves a big hole. However, there is a proven commodity in Travis Goethel (71 tackles, sack, three forced fumbles), and there’s a good amount of experience and depth, especially in the middle, where Gerald Munns (20 tackles, 3.5 TFL, sack), Mike Nixon (58 tackles, 3 TFL), and Morris Wooten (47 tackles, 3 TFL) all have starting experience.
The secondary is going to be battling some top receivers this season, but if you’re Erickson, you’ve got to be confident, given the caliber of talent the Sun Devils’ D Bo face everyday in practice.
The departure of cornerback Justin Tryon means that highly-touted JC transfer Terell Carr will immediately have a spotlight on him. Carr may get picked on early, due to the presence of a rising star opposite him in sophomore Omar Bolden (33 tackles, INT last season), but if he proves his worth, offenses are going to be in a world of trouble.
That‘s not even taking into consideration the havoc that senior free safety Troy Nolan (64 tackles, 2 TFL, 6 INT) will be wreaking this season. Of the team-leading six interceptions that Nolan had in 2007, two were returned for touchdowns. At the other safety spot, the starter looks to be senior Rodney Cox, who started two games last season and recorded 22 tackles and an interception.
After winning the Lou Groza Award as the nation’s best placekicker as a freshman last season, Thomas Weber is back to handle both kicking and punting duties. Weber made 24 of 25 field goals (7 of 7 from 40-plus) and 46 of 48 extra points last season, and he also averaged a respectable 39.3 yards per punt.
The offensive line is really ASU’s only major concern, but it’s one that could make or break them. The Sun Devils really needs to have their line solidified by the time they face Georgia and their tenacious defense, because if not, Carpenter will have a few cobwebs to shake out come the following Sunday.
If the Sun Devils are going to win 10 or more games and push USC for the Pac-10 title, it’ll have to be done on the road, with only three home games after their opening four-game homestand. Not only will that stretch from Georgia to Oregon be a season-maker, but so will their five conference road games, none of which can be marked down as sure wins.
Dennis Erickson‘s second-year success is the stuff of legends, and as easy as it is to buy into what he’s done already and what he’s undoubtedly building in Tempe, I won’t be the least bit surprised if 7-5 or 8-4 ends up being the reality, due to a hellacious schedule post-NAU/Stanford/UNLV and the concerns about whether the offensive line can allow the offense to be every bit as good as it can be.
However, this is a talented team, and when you throw in their leader on the sidelines, there’s no reason why ASU shouldn’t make a run in the Pac-10 this season.
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Matt
We’ve been talking about this topic over at Echo from the Buttes, and so we’ll post it to you.
Does Rudy have to post a marquee win over Georgia or USC for his legacy to be cemented? Right now, we’re not sure where he stands in Pac-10 lore. But he’s about to break a crap ton of records.
Anyway, check it out at http://www.echofromthebuttes.com/
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:44 am