The 2007 season held a lot of promise for Oregon. Heading into the final few weeks of the season, the Ducks were in control of the Pac-10 and ranked #2 in the country, in position to book a berth in the BCS national championship game with a winning finish.
However, star QB and Heisman Trophy frontrunner Dennis Dixon went down with a torn ACL in what proved to be a 34-24 upset loss at Arizona, and the Ducks went on to lose their final two games, which saw them not only fall out of the national title race but also lose their grasp on the Pac-10 title and a BCS berth.
But, Oregon did end the year on a high note with a 56-21 rout of South Florida in the Sun Bowl to finish at 9-4, and heading into this season, Oregon is ranked in the top 25 and primed for another successful season under Mike Bellotti, though there are a few questions that need to be answered early on to avoid a rough start.
Oregon Ducks
Coach: Mike Bellotti (14th year at Oregon, 106-52 at UO, 129-77-2 overall)
2007 Record: 9-4, 5-4 Pac-10 (tied for 4th), beat South Florida in Sun Bowl
Starters Returning: 15 (6 offense, 7 defense, kicker, punter)
Key Returnees: RB Jeremiah Johnson, WR Jaison Williams, TE Ed Dickson, C Max Unger, LT Fenuki Tupou, RG Mark Lewis, DE Nick Reed, DE Will Tukuafu, DT Cole Linehan, LB Jerome Boyd, LB John Bacon, CB Jairus Byrd, CB Walter Thurmond III, S Patrick Chung, K Matt Evensen, P Josh Syria
Key Losses: QB Dennis Dixon, RB Jonathan Stewart, WR Garren Strong, RT Geoff Schwartz, LG Josh Tschirgi, LB Kwame Agyeman, DT Jeremy Gibbs, DT David Faaeteete, FS Matthew Harper
2008 Schedule
8/30 vs. Washington
9/6 vs. Utah State
9/13 at Purdue
9/20 vs. Boise State
9/27 at Washington State
10/4 at USC
10/11 vs. UCLA
10/25 at Arizona State
11/1 at Cal
11/15 vs. Stanford
11/22 vs. Arizona
11/29 at Oregon State
Key Game: Sept. 13 at Purdue - The Ducks may or may not be settled at QB heading into this one, but they need to be, because Purdue has an offense that could hang 40 or more on the Ducks. A loss here could hurt their chances of being in or near the top 10 when they go to USC, but if their defense can terrorize Curtis Painter and slow down Purdue’s talented duo of RBs Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor, they’ll come back from the Midwest with a big non-conference victory and looking for another one.
2008 Outlook
The Ducks’ offense was one of the nation’s best last season, averaging 38 points and more than 450 yards per game, flourishing in a new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s wide-open offense. This year, the fireworks should continue, even with some key pieces to replace.
Things were shaky under center over the final few regular-season games after Dixon went down, as Brady Leaf, Cody Kempt, and Jason Roper had ups and downs in the losses to Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon State. But, Roper threw four touchdown passes against a quality South Florida pass defense in the Sun Bowl to end the year on a high note.
The sophomore Roper, however, isn‘t the guy right now, as that will be redshirt sophomore Nate Costa. Costa redshirted last season but tore his ACL in October, which might have hampered his chances to contend for the starting job in the spring. However, that wasn’t the case, as Costa nailed down the top spot on the depth chart with an impressive spring run. Roper will likely play at least a little, but the mobile Costa is the better fit for the spread option, able to make plays with his legs just as much as with his arm.
Dixon wasn’t the only significant loss, as the Ducks also says goodbye to Stewart, who ran for 1,722 yards last season before being drafted 13th overall by the Carolina Panthers. However, the backfield isn’t a concern, as senior Jeremiah Johnson is back after playing only six games in ‘07. Johnson has averaged more than six yards a carry in each of his three seasons, so getting the yards he needs and then some won’t be a problem.
Behind Johnson, JC transfer LaGarrette Blount and junior Andre Crenshaw should see regular carries. While Johnson and Crenshaw are a little on the ‘smaller’ side (not that 5′10/5′11 and 200 pounds is tiny), the 6′1, 230 pound Blount has the size and power to be a big bruiser, but if he gets some space, he has the speed to take it the distance.
As for Costa’s primary targets through the air, last year’s top two receivers are back in WR Jaison Williams and TE Ed Dickson. Williams has worked on being more sure-handed in the off-season, which could mean a 1,000 yard senior campaign. Williams is a physically imposing target at 6′5, 240, with game-breaker ability, but if he keeps his eye - and hands - on the ball, and consistently produce week in, week out, he is easily one of the country’s elite receivers…and less of a headache for coaches and fans alike.
A deep group of sophomores will be counted on along with Williams, including sophomore Jamere Holland, who could also provide that big-play ability with his blazing speed. Holland started his career at USC, where he ran track and redshirted on the football team as a freshman in 2006 before transferring to Oregon last summer, and while there are injury concerns, if he’s healthy, he can do some special things.
It’s not all about the offense though, by any means. Just as the offense will make a lot of plays, so will the defense.
It all starts up front, with one of the top defensive ends in the country in Nick Reed. Last season, Reed had 60 tackles, 22.5 tackles for loss, and 12 sacks. He’ll form a dangerous rush duo with Will Tukuafu (36 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks), and in the middle, experienced tackles Ra’Shon Harris and Cole Lineham will complete a starting front four that should be strong and could be stronger if five-star JC recruit Justin Thompson gets his academic issues in order. One new face to watch out for is freshman Hamani Stevens, who came in as one of the top-rated centers, but is at tackle right now and could see immediate playing time.
There are two returning starters at linebacker in Jerome Boyd and John Bacon. Boyd, who had 79 tackles (11 TFL) and three sacks in 2007, should challenge for all-conference honors as a senior, and Bacon, a junior, should come back strong after having his 2007 season ended early due to a knee injury against Arizona State. At the other starting linebacker spot looks to be Spencer Paysinger, who benefits from the suspension of Kevin Garrett for at least a little while.
The spotlight, however, is on the secondary, which should be one of the best in the country. Teams threw the ball a lot against the Ducks last season (487 times in 13 games), so obviously some yards (249.2) and touchdowns (20) were given up.
But on the other hand, only 53% of those 487 passes ended up in the right hands, and 20 of them, well, didn’t.
12 of those 20 picks were by corners Jairus Byrd and Walter Thurmond III, who could both vie for conference and national accolades. Thurmond was second on the team in tackles with 103, had eight TFL, five interceptions, and 18 pass breakups, while Byrd racked up 65 tackles (4 TFL, sack), a team and conference-leading seven interceptions, and 15 pass breakups to follow up on a freshman season that saw him pick off five passes and be named the Pac-10’s Co-Freshman of the Year and a freshman All-American.
Along with their playmaking duo of corners, the Ducks also have one of the top safeties in senior Patrick Chung, who elected to stay for his final season after flirting with entering the draft. Last year, Chung led the team in tackles with 117, had 7 TFL, two interceptions, seven pass breakups, forced a fumble, and he blocked two kicks. So, it’s safe to say that there are going to be a good many plays made in Oregon‘s secondary this season.
More than having things set at the quarterback position and with the other areas where there are new starters, the key to Oregon’s success will be avoiding the injury bug. Besides Dixon, there were multiple other key injuries last season, and while it’s inevitable guys will pick up scrapes and knocks, you’d prefer they be of the ’strain’ or ‘acute’ variety, not of the ‘tear,’ ‘rupture,’ or ‘fracture’ type.
The season opener against Washington won’t be a cake walk, but Oregon should avoid a scare, and after what will be a stroll against Utah State, things get a little tougher.
That being said, if the offense can use those first couple of games to get in stride, the Ducks should be well-positioned to make their Pac-10 destiny when October hits, and they have to go to USC and Arizona State, before November with a test at Cal.
While I do think USC and Arizona St. are the top two teams in the Pac-10, if there’s a team to make it a three-horse race, it’ll be an Oregon team that’s high on experience, high no talent, and through the roof on excitement. They may fall short of the title, but 9-3 or 10-2 is certainly within reach, with the latter putting them in BCS at-large consideration.
