2008 Washington Huskies Preview: Locker-led Huskies must deliver
Earlier this week, we broke down one Pac-10 program which is facing a must-win season in Arizona, but Mike Stoops isn’t the only coach in the conference on the hot seat.
Tyrone Willingham inherited a program that wasn’t in good shape when he took over following a 1-10 season in 2004. The Huskies improved their win total to two in 2005 and five in 2006, but instead of making the breakthrough back to winning ways in 2007, things went much differently. A 2-0 start was highlighted by an upset of Boise State, but from there, Washington lost 9 of their last 11 games and finished in the Pac-10 cellar with a 2-7 mark.
Willingham was retained after the disappointing 4-9 finish, but another similar year would likely spell the end of his tenure in Seattle. Can the Huskies make enough improvements to keep him off of the hot seat?
Washington Huskies
Coach: Tyrone Willingham (4th year at Washington, 11-25 at UW, 76-76-1 overall)
2007 Record: 4-9, 2-7 Pac-10 (10th)
Starters Returning: 14 (7 offense, 5 defense, kicker, punter)
Key Returnees: QB Jake Locker, RB Brandon Johnson, FB Paul Homer, TE Michael Gottlieb, C Juan Garcia, LT Ben Ossai, LG Ryan Tolar, RG Casey Bulyca, DE Daniel Te’o Nesheim, CB Mesphin Forrester, CB Byron Davenport, FS Darin Harris, SS Jason Wells, SS Nate Williams, LB Mason Foster, LB Donald Butler, LB Trenton Tuiasosopo, K Ryan Perkins, P Jared Ballman
Key Losses: RB Louis Rankin, WR Anthony Russo, WR Marcel Reese, RT Chad Macklin, CB Roy Lewis, DE Greyson Gunheim, DT Jordan Reffett, DT Wilson Afoa, LB Dan Howell, LB E.J. Savannah (currently academically ineligible)
2008 Schedule
8/30 at Oregon
9/6 vs. BYU
9/13 vs. Oklahoma
9/27 vs. Stanford
10/4 at Arizona
10/18 vs. Oregon State
10/25 vs. Notre Dame
11/1 at USC
11/8 vs. Arizona State
11/15 vs. UCLA
11/22 at Washington State
12/6 at Cal
Key Game: Sept. 6 vs. BYU - BYU is thinking BCS, and if the Huskies could do the same thing that they did to Boise State last season, it’d put an end to those hopes very quickly. More importantly, it’d be a big, big victory for Washington in a brutal opening stretch, and it‘d provided some much-need confidence and belief in the program‘s ability to succeed. Well, provided they don’t follow an upset with a blowout home loss to Oklahoma.
2008 Outlook
There’s a good chance that most of the highlights we see of the Huskies this season will include Jake Locker.
If Washington has a dream season, the sophomore could be a Heisman candidate. If Washington doesn’t do well, at least Locker will be fun to watch.
Last season, Locker threw for 2,062 yards and 14 touchdowns and came up 14 yards of 1,000 on the ground, running for 986 yards and 13 scores.
It goes without saying that Locker’s health is of he utmost importance, but so is his improvement and development as a passer. Last season, Locker completed only 47.3 of his passes and threw 15 interceptions. If he could even better those numbers to 55% and 10, it’d pay big dividends for him and an offense that has to replace a few other big pieces.
Last season, Locker and Louis Rankin combined to be a prolific duo on the ground, as Rankin led the team in rushing with 1,294 yards and six scores, caught 20 passes for 126 yards and two scores, and averaged 24.4 yards on 40 kick returns with one touchdown.
Set to replace Rankin as the starting running back and primary kick returner is a sophomore Brandon Johnson, who ran for 196 yards and two touchdowns.
Also gone are Locker’s two top wideouts from last season, Anthony Russo and Marcel Reese, who accounted for 49.7% (88 of 177) of the team’s catches, 61.4% (1,527 of 2,485) of the team’s passing yards, and 72.2% (13 of 18) of the team’s touchdown catches.
With those two gone, look for a lot of underclassmen to step up. With the recent departure of Curtis Shaw due to family issues, sophomore D’Andre Goodwin is the only returning receiver with receptions, and they’ll be expected to have major roles, along with redshirt freshman Alvin Logan and true freshmen Anthony Boyles and Devin Aguilar.
The new name that could make the biggest immediate impact is highly-touted freshman Chris Polk, who enrolled early a Washington. Polk could be the proverbial ‘ace in the hole,’ as he will man the ’slotback’ position, lining up at running back and at receiver, a la Oregon State‘s James Rodgers. The directions should be pretty simple with him: Get the ball in his hands, let him make something happen with it.
The offensive line returns a great deal of starting experience and should have no problem opening holes and protecting Locker. Also, starting tight end Michael Gottlieb is back and will not only provide an extra target in the passing game, but both he and returning starting fullback Paul Homer will be key blockers.
While producing on offense shouldn’t be an issue in the end, it won‘t matter if the defense isn‘t the least markedly better.
Last season, Washington’s defense allowed 31.6 points and 446.4 yards per game, and in conference play, opponents averaged 35.7 points against the Huskies, with Arizona (48), Washington St. (42), Arizona St. (44), Oregon (55), and UCLA (44) all scoring more that 40 points.
The defense has already taken a big blow with the potential loss of linebacker E.J. Savannah to academic ineligibility. Savannah was the team’s leading tackler last season with 111 tackles, 14 of the for losses. And when your defense already has issues, then losing the unit’s best player is not good, not good at all. There’s a chance that he’ll be back at some point, but that’s not something that can be counted on right now.
But when your defense struggled as much as the Huskies‘ defense did last season, the only way is up, usually.
Then again, sometimes it’s not, because there are, after all, 120 teams in I-A. But, Washington’s defense really has no choice but to get better, do they?
There are holes to fill, but there is potential, and there’s also a new defensive coordinator in veteran coach Ed Donatell, who has nearly three decades of coaching experience, including two under Don James at Washington in 1981 and 1982. Donatell’s got a lot of work to do, but he may not be in over his head, with some talented pieces returning from last year’s unit.
The Huskies may not be able to match the 35 sacks they had last season, but they will have at least a little pass rush, thanks to senior Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, who had the 57 tackles, 15 TFL, and 8.5 sacks in 2007. Besides Te’o-Nesheim, there isn’t much in the way of proven commodities on the line, but big things are expected of junior tackle Cameron Elisara, who steps into a starting role this season. Redshirt freshman end Kalani Aldrich isn’t penciled in as a starter, but with his 6’7 frame, he could cause a lot of problems when he gets into the action.
A couple of highly-touted freshmen could also contribute immediately on the line, in 6’2, 350 pound tackle Alameda Ta’amu, who’s currently battling a lingering injury issue, and 6’5 end Everette Thompson.
The linebackers are a much better unit with a healthy and academically focused Savannah in their ranks, but with or without him, they may be the strength of the defense, with sophomore Mason Foster (25 tackles, 5 TFL) poised to be a big presence on the outside, and the duo of Donald Butler (52 tackles, 2.5 TFL) and Trenton Tuiasosopo (39 tackles, 3.5 TFL) manning the middle. Just how much Savannah will be missed while he’s out depends on how well they produce and how much of or if there is a drop-off between Savannah and his likely replacement, junior Josh Gage.
The secondary, just like the run defense, has a wealth of returning talent, but that talent needs to step up from the get-go. There’s been a lot of shifting back there and for their sake, it best work, because Max Hall and Sam Bradford won’t let them off easy if they look vulnerable, and an ugly start could really get the negative sparks flying.
That being said, there’s talent and potential, with returning starters and seniors CB Mesphin Forrester (former free safety) and strong safety Darin Harris, along with the free safety duo of sophomore Nate Williams and senior Jason Wells, who’ll be aching to make some other people ache after having a promising 2007 ended after only five games. Byron Davenport, Vonzell McDowell and Matt Mosley all saw starts at corner last season, and all three will be in the mix for significant playing time this season, though it looks like redshirt freshman Quinton Richardson will man the starting spot opposite Forrester.
One area that should be very solid for Washington is special teams, where seniors Ryan Perkins and Jared Ballman return at the kicking positions. Last year, Perkins made 15 of 20 field goals and all but one of his 46 extra points, while Ballman averaged 40.9 yards per punt, which was 6th in the Pac-10.
It’s pretty simple for the Huskies. They’ve got to win, or at least show discernible improvement, or it could mean another new head coach.
Starting off a crucial season with three straight games against top-20 teams, but just as well as that stretch could break them down, it could do wonders in a good way. After that opening stretch, their next four games are all winnable. Not easy at all, but winnable.
In the end, an upset or two might have to be in the cards, and there are some upset-friendly games on the schedule. More than anything though, the Huskies need to win the close games, which are the difference between one team being in the postseason and another watching on TV. Last season, they coughed up fourth-quarter leads against Arizona (41-26, lost 48-41) and Washington State (35-28, lost 42-35), and they blew a 21-point lead against Hawaii.
With another tough slate ahead, there’s no telling what might be expected of Washington. Certainly not four wins or less, because that’d be a step backwards. I do think they should pull off at least one upset, and if 5-7 or 6-6 comes with some close calls against some of the toughest teams on their schedule, that could be enough of a step in the right direction, but nothing less than a winning record and a first bowl berth since 2002 should be the goal.
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