2008 Arizona Wildcats Preview: Will potent offense be enough to lead Wildcats to the postseason?
Last season, Arizona played a big part in the outcome of the national title race, as the Wildcats upset #2 Oregon 34-24 on November 15. It was their third straight season with an upset of a top-10 team, but just like the previous two seasons and every year since 1998’s 12-1 year, Arizona finished with a non-winning record and no postseason.
With that in mind, 2008 is a must-win season for the Wildcats and fourth-year head coach Mike Stoops.
Arizona Wildcats
Coach: Mike Stoops (5th year at Arizona, 17-29)
2007 Record: 5-7, 4-5 Pac-10 (6th)
Starters Returning: 15 (10 offense, 3 defense, kicker/punter)
Key Returnees: QB Willie Tuitama, WR Mike Thomas, RB Nic Grigsby, HB Brandon Lopez, WR Terrell Turner, WR Delashaun Dean, TE Rob Gronkowski, RT Eben Britton, RG Joe Longacre, LG Colin Baxter, C Blake Kerley, FS Nate Hess, SS Cam Nelson, LB Ronnie Palmer, DE Johnathan Turner, K Jason Bondzio, P Keenyn Crier
Key Losses: CB Antoine Cason, DT Lionel Dotson, LB Spencer Larsen, LB Dane Krogstad, DE Louis Holmes, DE Jason Parker, DT Yaniv Barnett, CB Wilrey Fontenot
2008 Schedule
8/30 vs. Idaho
9/6 vs. Toledo
9/13 at New Mexico
9/20 at UCLA
10/4 vs. Washington
10/11 at Cal
10/18 vs. Stanford
10/25 vs. USC
11/8 at Washington
11/15 at Oregon
11/22 vs. Oregon State
12/6 vs. Arizona State
Key Game: Dec. 6 vs. Arizona State - The archrival Sun Devils could come into Tucson chasing a potential BCS berth, and no matter if the Wildcats are playing for the postseason or just playing for pride, if they could put a dent into ASU’s ambitions, it’d be a huge victory.
2008 Outlook
One thing that Mike Stoops doesn’t really have to worry about heading into the season is offensive production.
Almost all of the key pieces from last year’s offense are back, led by senior quarterback Willie Tuitama. Last season, Tuitama completed a career-best 62.4% of his passes for 3,683 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He threw five touchdown passes three times and three two other times, and he added three rushing touchdowns.
Tuitama should push for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns this year, with the return of his top three receivers. Senior Mike Thomas comes into 2008 as one of the school’s most productive receivers, with 185 catches, 2,406 yards, and 18 touchdowns, and he’ll look to garner conference honors for the fourth year in a row. Last season, Thomas caught 83 passes for 1,038 yards and 11 touchdowns.
While he’ll be the go-to guy, expect Terrell Turner (50 catches, 575 yards, 4 TD) and Delashaun Dean (37 catches, 418 yards, TD) to get plenty of catches. But besides Thomas, Arizona’s most dynamic weapon in the passing game might be sophomore tight end Rob Gronkowski, who had a stellar freshman campaign in ‘07, with 28 catches for 525 yards and six touchdowns. When your tight end can average 18.8 yards per catch, it’s a good idea to get him the ball as much as possible.
As good as the passing game will be, the offense won’t truly purr unless the running game can produce, which wasn’t consistently the case last season, as Arizona averaged only 76.8 yards per game on the ground.
The spotlight guy in the Wildcats’ backfield is sophomore Nic Grigsby. Last season, Grigsby posted games of 186, 126, and 124 yards on the way to rushing for 704 yards and two touchdowns in 10 games. With a year under his belt and the #1 job in his grasp, Grigsby should push for a 1,000 yard season, and he’ll also be a regular target for Tuitama, as he caught 35 passes for 200 yards and two scores last year as well.
The chances of plenty of holes being opened up is pretty good, since Arizona returns four starters from their offensive line, including junior right tackle Eben Britton. Britton has started all 24 games in the last two seasons, and he should contend for All-America honors.
Arizona’s fate this year may rest on how good a rebuilt defense can be. Last year, the Wildcats allowed 26.8 points and 372.2 yards per game, fairly respectable totals considering that they held BYU, USC, and Arizona State to 20 points each.
But, many of the key names from that defense are gone, and their replacements must step up to prevent shootout after shootout.
The holes start up front, as all four primary starters on the defensive line are gone, in defensive ends Louis Holmes and Jason Parker, and tackles Lionel Dotson and Yaniv Barnett.
Fortunately, the cupboard isn’t exactly barren of experience, as senior Johnathan Turner, who started six games last season and had 25 tackles and 3.5 sacks, is set to start at one end spot. At the other, sophomore Ricky Elmore, who had 10 tackles (1.5 for loss) last season, is slated to start, and they’ll both need to be a regular presence in the backfield.
At nose tackle, junior Lolomana Mikaele, who started one game last season, is atop the depth chart, and at the other tackle spot is a guy who has starting experience, but on the other side of the ball. Junior Earl Mitchell started 12 games in the last two seasons at fullback, but he’s made the switch to tackle, where he’ll be counted on to be a disruptive presence.
Linebacker is an area that also takes a big hit. Gone is Spencer Larsen, who was drafted in the sixth round by Denver Broncos after a stellar senior season, and so is Dane Krogstad. But, starting middle linebacker Ronnie Palmer is back after finishing second on the team in tackles with 83, and he’ll be laying the wood on many a ball carrier this season. Alongside him will be junior Xavier Kelley on the strong side, and senior Adrian McCovy manning the weak side.
The secondary actually returns the most starters, but they may take the biggest individual hit, as 2007 Thorpe Award-winning cornerback Antoine Cason is now a San Diego Charger after being drafted #27 overall in April. Also is fellow starting corner Wilrey Fontenot, who was drafted in the 7th round by the Atlanta Falcons.
Senior Marquis Hundley and junior Devin Ross are atop the depth chart at corner, but the man to watch for is true freshman Robert Golden, who was rated as the #4 corner prospect in the country by Scout.com. Saying that he’ll do as much as Cason did in his freshman year (Freshman All-American in 2004) would be heaping way too much on him, but don’t put it past him to do so.
The safety positions are the most solid positions in the defense, with the return of starter Nate Hess at free and Cam Nelson at strong. Nelson started all 12 games last season and recorded 60 tackles, while Hess started six games (played in all 12) and tied Cason for the team lead in interceptions with five.
At kicker and punter, the Wildcats have two of the best in the Pac-10. Kicker Jason Bondzio filled Nick Folk’s shoes very ably, as he made 21 of 26 field goals and 37 of 38 extra points last season, and he was very accurate from 40 yards-plus, making 8 of 10 from that distance. At punter, freshman Keenyn Crier stepped in where Folk left off and led the Pac-10 in punting with a 43.7 yards per punt average, which earned him first-team all-conference and Freshman All-America honors.
The talent is there for Arizona to break a postseason drought that dates back to the last century (that sounds bad, doesn’t it?), but will it happen? The Wildcats should easily start 2-0, but how well they perform in a four-game stretch that sees them go on the road to New Mexico, UCLA, and Stanford, and host Washington, will tell a lot. That’s a stretch where they could just as easily go 1-3 or 0-4 as they could 4-0.
The second half of the season is going to be tough, as they face Cal, USC, Oregon, and ASU, but provided they don’t fall flat on their faces, there’s no reason why the Wildcats shouldn’t be bowling. The keys will be to establish a ground game, make less mistakes on offense (25 giveaways to 24 takeaways last season), and gelling on defense, but if they can do that, upsetting another ranked team won’t be the only highlight of their campaign.
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