There’s no doubt that Michigan State made strides in Mark Dantonio’s first year at the helm last season. The Spartans went from 4-8 in John L. Smith’s last season to 7-6 last year, making their first postseason appearance since 2003 and pushing Matt Ryan and Boston College until the end in the Champs Sports Bowl before losing 24-21.
However, much bigger things are being expected of the Spartans this year, and many think that this season offers up the opportunity to make a lot of noise in the Big Ten, and almost as importantly, break their six-game losing streak against hated rival Michigan, who’s expected to have a rebuilding season as Rich Rodriguez puts his touch on the program.
But, just how far Michigan State goes in 2008 will hinge on how well their new starters can step up and deliver along with a core group of returnees that Dantonio knows (well, he should) he can rely on to produce.
On offense, Michigan State loses touchdown machine Jehuu Caulcrick, who ran for 872 yards and 21 scores last season, WR Devin Thomas, who accounted for 2,590 all-purpose yards and was drafted in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft by the Washington Redskins, and TE Kellen Davis, who had 32 catches for 513 yards and six touchdowns as a senior and was drafted in the fifth round by the Chicago Bears.
But, two of the Spartans’ biggest pieces on offense return, setting the foundation for what should be a pretty productive unit. QB Brian Hoyer took over the starting role from the departed Drew Stanton last season and had a solid season, throwing for 2,725 yards and 20 touchdowns.
He has to find a new go-to guy, which won’t be easy, but there are certainly candidates who are ready to step up. Senior Deon Curry had the second-most production of the receivers last season, catching 24 passes for 200 yards and a score, while sophomore Mark Dell made an instant impact as a freshman, catching 20 passes for 220 yards and two touchdowns.
There may not be a lot of proven depth when it comes to his passing targets, but Hoyer definitely needs to make use of it and get to know as many receivers as possible. Last season, Thomas led the team with 78 catches for 1,260 yards and eight touchdowns, and from there, the numbers dropped off dramatically for the other guys.
Besides Curry and Dell, redshirt freshman B.J. Cunningham is expected to have a breakout year, and junior Blair White is also expected to have a bigger role this season. Of the newcomers, the big name to watch out for is true freshman Fred Smith, who was the #34 prep receiver in the country according to Scout.com. Just like Dell made an impact right off the bat, so could Smith, who’s comparable in size to Thomas. Another true freshman, Keshawn Martin, has made a big impression early on in camp, and with impact roles up for grabs, could very well emerge as a key target for Hoyer early on.
Besides Hoyer, the other big piece returning on offense is senior running back Javon Ringer. Last season, Ringer ran for 1,447 yards, a total that is second among returning Big Ten backs behind Ohio State’s Chris Wells. Ringer ran for more than 100 yards seven times, and a 203-yard performance in a win over Indiana on October 13 culminated a four-game stretch where he ran for 680 yards and scored five touchdowns.
Ringer also had the second most catches on the team behind Thomas with 35, for 295 yards, but the one total that sticks out on his 2007 stat sheet is the six touchdowns he scored, none of which came in the last six games. That’s a total that should see a significant increase in 2008, not only because Caulcrick’s departure automatically means more touches and touchdowns for him, but beefing up and becoming stronger means more confidence in the coaches to give him those short-yardage and goal-line opportunities. If Ringer has the year that he’s capable of, he could certainly earn some Heisman votes and put himself in position to be drafted very high next April.
Provided that Hoyer’s new prime targets in the passing game step up, Michigan State could easily match or surpass their production from last year, when they averaged 33.1 points and 416.8 yards per game. So with that out of the way, what about the defense?
Michigan State made a lot of plays on defense last season, despite giving up 26.6 points per game. However, three of their biggest playmakers are gone, in ends Ervin Baldwin and Jonal Saint-Dic, who combined for 33 tackles for loss and 18 sacks in 2007, and linebacker Kaleb Thornhill, who had ten tackles for loss last season.
Also gone are linebacker SirDarean Adams, cornerback Travis Key, and safety Nehemiah Warrick, who accounted for 177 total tackles last season, along with nose tackle Ogemdi Nwagbuo.
However, the cupboard certainly isn’t bare on defense for the Spartans. The anchor of the defense will be sophomore linebacker Greg Jones, who established himself as a future star with a true freshman campaign that saw him lead the team in tackles with 78 and record 8.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Joining Jones in the ’backer corps is junior Eric Gordon, who had 62 tackles last season, 7.5 of which were for loss, and sophomore Jon Misch (22 tackles) has a great deal of potential (and piano skills).
While the secondary does take a hit with the losses of Key and Warrick, two of the other key returnees from last year reside in the defensive backfield. Cornerback Kendall Davis-Clark (72 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 8 pass breakups) will be just as much of a threat to make a play in the backfield as he will be to make plays in coverage, and safety Otis Wiley led the team in interceptions last season with four. Along with the return of those two impact players, the secondary should be strong with the return of defensive backs Chris L. Rucker (24 tackles, INT), Ross Weaver (19 tackles, 2 TFL), and Ashton Henderson (18 tackles), each of whom has a fair amount of experience.
The defensive line may be the biggest concern, with the great amount of production that was lost in that area. However, there are definitely some solid pieces in place, as tackle Justin Kershaw (34 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks) returns, and at end, Brandon Long will have a chance to make a big impact in a regular role. The biggest piece of the Spartans’ front line could be a newcomer who’s not a newcomer to the I-A level, in junior Trevor Anderson, who registered 21 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks in two seasons playing under Dantonio at Cincinnati. It might be too much to ask to duplicate the production that Baldwin and Saint-Dic had, but Long and Anderson should form a formidable rush duo.
On special teams, the biggest hole to fill is at kick returner, where Thomas averaged 29.1 yards per return last year. However, the kicking positions are set, as Brett Swenson returns to handle placekicking duties, and punter Aaron Bates is back after averaging 39.7 yards per punt last season as a freshman. Swenson made 15 of 22 field goals last year, a relatively respectable number, but you’d like to have your kicker more towards the 80% and up range.
All in all, there are some questions, but the pieces are certainly there all around. And all of them will need to be at their best from the start, as the schedule offers up little in the way of ‘easy’ wins.
Schedule Overview
8/30 at California
9/6 vs. Eastern Michigan
9/13 vs. Florida Atlantic
9/20 vs. Notre Dame
9/27 at Indiana
10/4 vs. Iowa
10/11 at Northwestern
10/18 vs. Ohio State
10/25 at Michigan
11/1 vs. Wisconsin
11/8 vs. Purdue
11/22 at Penn State
The Spartans can’t afford to be complacent or inconsistent, with a schedule that sees them start the season with a trip to Berkeley and then have a relative breather before they host Florida Atlantic, who beat Minnesota last season and will bring an explosive offense and a playmaker-filled defense into East Lansing, and Notre Dame, who should be much improved this season.
Michigan State stands a good chance to be unbeaten heading into conference play, and from there, what stands in their way of a terrific 7-0 start are winning tough roadies against explosive Indiana and Northwestern teams. At worst, they should be 6-1 or 5-2 when they host Ohio State, who should still be in the thick of the national title race, whether or not they beat USC. We all remember 1998, right?
After they face the Buckeyes, they go to Ann Arbor to face the Wolverines, and no matter how bad Michigan may be doing, coming out of there with a win won’t be cakewalk, even if Michigan comes into the game with an ugly record.
The final three games will give Michigan State a chance to either cap off a big season or fall flat on their faces, as they get another one of the conference’s contenders at home, as they kick off November by hosting Wisconsin before finishing up at home against Purdue and on the road against Penn State, who they beat 35-31 at home last season.
There’s really no reason why the Spartans can’t win between 8-10 games and make a push towards at least the top half of the conference. However, at the same time, they could finish 7-5 or 6-6 - or worse. But, based on the improvements that they made in Dantonio’s first season, it should be more of the former in store this season.
