Listen to the Music: A Fantasy Draft Guide to Receivers and Tight Ends
Music is something we often take for granted. Like a good referee, if music is doing its job, you rarely notice its presence. But take it away and you realize just how important it is. In the world of fantasy football, receivers and tight ends can be a lot like music. They don’t get the attention of running backs or quarterbacks because there are so many of them. Owners often pass on a receiver in early rounds because the mindset is that you can always pick one up in later rounds. With a few exceptions, receivers are all pretty much the same right? With the help of some songs from the 80’s, we’ll see how different receivers and tight ends can be and what that can mean to your fantasy team.
No One Like You - Scorpions
1982 was a good year for the Scorpions. Along with beer and bratwurst, they were one of Germany’s greatest exports. “No One Like You” catapulted them to superstardom. These receivers are truly one of a kind. They are mentioned in the same breath as the top running backs when fantasy drafts roll around. Draft them early or say “Auf Wiedersehen” to them.
Randy Moss NE: Just like the Phoenix rising out of Arizona, Randy Moss resurrected his career and reminded everyone why he was the best receiver in the NFL for half a decade. With a knack for catching the deep ball, the smarts to avoid taking the big hit, and a half crazy look that scares Tom Brady into throwing him the ball early and often, Moss put up record setting numbers even he will have a hard time duplicating. He should, however, still give you a season comparable to even the best running backs in the league.
Reggie Wayne IND: Every July, the same question kept popping up: is this the year Reggie Wayne supplants Marvin Harrison as the go to guy in the Colts offense. Last year he won that position by default when Harrison went down with a knee injury, but it looks like Wayne is ready and able to keep the job. Playing in a high powered offense with a great quarterback, expect another big season from number 87.
Larry Fitzgerald ARI: Some may argue that Fitzgerald isn’t even the best receiver on his team, but he’s done nothing but put up great numbers since he entered the league. No matter who is playing quarterback in Arizona, you can expect close to 1,500 yards and double digit touchdowns from Fitzgerald.
Braylon Edwards CLE: Edwards is a new addition to the elite receivers of the NFL, but he deserves all the praise he gets. He’s improved on his numbers every year in the league, and with a high powered offense that has remained largely intact, Edwards may very well continue that trend.
Steve Smith CAR: Despite all the quarterback problems Carolina had last year, Smith still managed 1,000 yards and 7 scores. If Delhomme can stay healthy this year, Smith should put up much better numbers. He’s one of the toughest match-ups in the league and the Panthers will try just about anything to get the ball into his hands. (Of course his assault on a teammate may make all of this irrelevant).
Marques Colston NO: Colston followed his surprise rookie season with an even better second campaign. Playing in an offense loaded with weapons, it’s difficult for defenses to focus on just one player. If his knee holds up, Colston could establish himself as one of the premier receivers in the league this season.
Kellen Winslow TE CLE: He’s not half the man his daddy was, and has suffered way too many injuries for such a young guy, but when he’s on the field, there are few who can match his production. With Cleveland’s offense looking just as strong as last year, expect Winslow to be a huge fantasy player in ‘08.
Jason Witten TE DAL: He put up career numbers last year and with the offense in Dallas, it doesn’t appear as if he’ll slow down any time soon. He’s been extremely durable throughout his career, and his ability as a blocker and receiver keeps him on the field full time. Rooming with the starting quarterback is never a bad thing either.
Antonio Gates TE SD: Slowed by a toe injury last year, Gates’ numbers took a little dip, but they were still better than almost all other tight ends. If the toe is 100%, you can expect Gates to once again be a force in your fantasy league.
Dallas Clark TE IND: While Clark may not be a top notch tight end all by himself, the fact that he plays in a system perfectly suited to his skills and with a quarterback who always seems to find him push Clark into this category. He has had some trouble staying healthy, but when he plays, he finds the end zone.
Don’t You Forget About Me - Simple Minds
This classic song, and theme for “The Breakfast Club” taught us one simple lesson. Don’t ignore the nerds, geeks, or headcases because if you look closely, they may be really special people, or in the case of Ally Sheedy, really hot. These receivers aren’t even the best pass catchers on their own teams, but don’t forget about them. They will put up solid numbers and give you options in your starting lineup, for bye weeks, and injured players throughout the season.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN: While Chad Johnson gets all the headlines, T.J. quietly goes about his business and puts up good (and last year great) fantasy numbers. A refocused Johnson could eat into his stats a little this year, but Houshmandzadeh is still a very solid fantasy receiver.
Wes Welker NE: Last season, Welker went from underrated to overrated in a span of about 8 weeks. While he is certainly a solid number two receiver, it’s hard to imagine him having a better statistical season than he did last year. While his stats may dip a bit this season, his draft position will definitely go up. Beware overpaying for this guy.
Roddy White ATL: It doesn’t say much for your passing attack when your top receiver is listed with number two receivers in a fantasy draft guide, but that’s about where White belongs. He had a solid season last year, but Bobby Petrino’s passing offense is gone and a rookie quarterback could be taking a majority of the snaps this season. Also, in signing Michael Turner, the Falcons have made a commitment to the run. I doubt White matches his numbers from last year.
Anquan Boldin ARI: Often overlooked because of Larry Fitzgerald, Boldin has nonetheless carved out a very successful NFL career. Although he missed four games last year, he had a career high nine touchdowns. As Arizona’s offense continues to mature, expect Boldin’s numbers to improve.
Santana Moss WAS: Santana’s biggest challenge in his career has been playing in all 16 games. While he hasn’t suffered any major injuries, he always seems to miss a couple of games each season. His big play ability is a real plus as is the development of Jason Campbell at quarterback. As always, he’s a solid pick if he can remain healthy.
Justin Gage TEN: Someone has to catch passes in Tennessee and Gage is as good a bet as anyone. The only question is can Vince Young improve enough as a passer to make taking any Titan receiver a safe bet. Probably not, but your chances are best with Gage.
Ronald Curry OAK: The Raider quarterback situation could not have been worse in ‘07 and Curry still managed 700 yards and four scores. While he won’t give you huge numbers this year, he’ll be a suitable sub for bye weeks and a possible starter if Russell turns out to be the real deal. Don’t hesitate to grab this guy in the back half of your draft (that sounded dirtier than was intended - sorry about that).
Brandon Stokley DEN: Stokley’s never quite been the same guy since he left Indy’s high octane offense, but don’t count out the original Slot Machine. He was putting up pretty solid numbers until an injury cut his ‘07 season short. If he can stay healthy, he and Cutler should team up to give any fantasy owner good value for a mid to late round pick.
Deion Branch SEA: A healthy Deion Branch is absolutely vital to Seattle’s offense this year. When they find out that although Shaun Alexander wasn’t an elite back, he was still better than the cast-offs they brought in, they will rely heavily on their passing game to move the football. Expect Branch to be the main beneficiary of this trend. A down ‘07 means you might be able to pick him up on the cheap.
Drew Bennett STL: Bennett moves into the starting number two spot after Isaac Bruce left for San Francisco. While not an overly-talented receiver, Bennett should get it done this year simply on volume. With Holt double-covered, who else will they throw to?
Todd Heap TE BAL: Injuries are all that have stopped Heap from being in the upper tier of tight ends in the NFL. Sadly, injuries never blow an assignment or miss a tackle. If he stays healthy (and it’s a fairly big if) he should be a steal in this year’s draft. Just make sure you pick up a reliable backup.
Chris Cooley TE WAS: There’s three things you need to know about Chris Cooley: he stays healthy, he scores touchdowns, and he has tremendous hair. The third one doesn’t matter for football purposes, but if you can’t land one of the top three or four tight ends, Cooley will do just fine.
Owen Daniels TE HOU: The only thing keeping Daniels from being mentioned in the same breath with the elite tight ends in the league is the end zone, as in Daniels can’t find it. Only three touchdowns last year hurt his fantasy production, but with the number of passes he sees, you can expect that number to increase in ‘08.
Heath Miller TE PIT: Miller is the anti-Daniels. He saw the ball far less than most big-time tight ends but still managed to score seven times. Tight ends who don’t do much more than score touchdowns are always an all-or-nothing proposition in fantasy football, but Miller is a bona fide starter.
Alge Crumpler TE TEN: A down year for Crumpler still put him in the middle of the pack among NFL tight ends in ‘07. A new team, a new system, and a new mindset will put him back in the top third for this coming season. If he becomes Vince Young’s security blanket, ‘08 could be a banner year for Crumpler.
Donald Lee TE GB: Lee took over as starter early in the ‘07 season and never looked back. He has shown the ability to run after the catch and helps to keeps defenses honest down the middle. With no tight end on Green Bay’s roster pushing him for playing time, expect Lee to easily surpass last seasons production.
Hungry Like the Wolf - Duran Duran
I have no idea how hungry wolves actually are or if they are hungrier than other predators in the animal kingdom, but Simon LeBon seems so sold on the idea of wolves being hungry when he sings this song that I don’t have it in me to disagree with him. In the NFL, receiver is one of the most difficult positions to learn, and young players often struggle to have an impact early in their careers. Who will be hungry enough to turn all the potential into production? Expect these players to break from the crowd:
Andre Johnson HOU: Whether it’s been injuries, poor quarterbacking, or a combination of the two, Johnson has never put together a great fantasy season. That all changes this year. A better offense and a quarterback who has a full year of experience in the system will make this the season that Johnson goes from good to great.
Brandon Marshall DEN: Marshall falls into the “someone has to catch the ball” category. After being one of the huge surprises of fantasy football last year, expect Marshall to improve on those numbers this year. No Javon Walker and a more experienced Jay Cutler should mean double digit touchdown numbers from Marshall this year. (Draft with caution - he may be suspended for as long as eight games).
Santonio Holmes PIT: The third year is when many NFL receivers say they start to feel more comfortable in their offenses and when fantasy owners can expect to see the biggest jump in stats. If that is the case with Holmes, expect big things in ‘08. With the Pittsburgh offense more willing than ever to throw the ball, Holmes should see his fair share of passes.
Greg Jennings GB: Another third-year receiver poised to make a name for himself in the NFL. Fantasy owners were thrilled with his touchdown production from last year, and while that may drop some this season, he should see an increase in yards and receptions. He should replace Donald Driver as the go-to guy this season.
Dwayne Bowe KC: Bowe came up with a very productive rookie season for the Kansas City Chiefs and many fantasy owners. Can he build on that momentum? Absolutely. The offensive line will get better and even a slightly worn down Larry Johnson will provide a running threat that can only loosen up the passing game. Bowe should be a solid investment in the middle rounds of the draft.
Lee Evans BUF: The difference between Evans and most of the guys in this category is that Evans has already been there. Normally a solid start in fantasy football, he had the lowest yards per catch average and touchdown total of his career in ‘07. With both Edwards and Lynch having a year of experience, the Buffalo offense should be a little better in ‘08 and Evans should have a rebound season.
Calvin Johnson DET: Johnson looked like the real deal until a back injury slowed him down early in his rookie season. It took awhile for him to regain his form, but he finished the year strong and left fantasy owners hoping for big things in ‘08. Johnson won’t disappoint. After a year of learning how the NFL works, Johnson should be poised for a big season this year. It was only a matter of time before Matt Millen picked a top-notch wideout.
Patrick Crayton DAL: The release of Terry Glenn show how much confidence the Cowboy coaches have in Crayton. After a solid year in ‘07 Crayton should see a sharp increase in his numbers in his second year as the full-time starter. Witten and Owens should get most of the attention on passing downs, leaving Crayton with single coverage. Should make a nice third or fourth option in most fantasy leagues.
Vincent Jackson SD: His size and speed always made him a great “what if” guy, but that’s about all he’s been in three seasons with San Diego. This could be the year Jackson turns that potential into production. While the Chargers have plenty of other weapons, Chambers tends to be non-existent in some games, while Gates and LT could take some of the heat off Jackson to produce. After a solid playoff push last year, Jackson could be close to a 1,000 yard receiver in ’08.
Antwaan Randle El WAS: Clearly an overpaid, under-producing receiver for the Redskins, Randle El may see the ball more often as the Skins go with more multiple receiver sets. Randle El has always been better as a slot receiver so he could see a modest increase in last year’s stats.
Jabar Gaffney NE: If you’re a gambler, Gaffney is right up your alley. He had a solid season last year considering he was the fourth receiver on the roster. Now with Stallworth gone, he moves up a spot and New England isn’t shy about throwing the ball so he could see a lot more action this year. The biggest question mark is Chad Jackson. If he steals playing time, his numbers may look almost identical to ‘07, which were less than desirable in most fantasy leagues.
Zach Miller TE OAK: Miller had a solid rookie season catching passes from some of the sorriest looking quarterbacks you will ever see. Now in his second year, he could see a significant jump in production, especially if Russell can be a reliable, consistent starter.
Tony Scheffler TE DEN: Scheffler put up decent numbers in only three quarters of a season last year and things seem to be looking up for the Denver tight end. Outside of Brandon Marshall (who could be suspended), Scheffler is the only legitimate receiving threat the Broncos can put on the field. Should be a nice value since you won’t have to use a high draft pick on him.
Marcedes Lewis TE JAC: The Jags rarely throw the football, but when they do, they have to throw to somebody. Lewis could very well be the guy. He’s a huge target and runs well enough to keep defenses honest. If you missed out on the great tight ends or want to pick up a backup with potential, Lewis could well be your man.
Randy McMichael TE STL: After a less than stellar ‘07, McMichael looks to rebound this season. Having Tony Gonzalez’s old coach should help. A new offense that looks to take advantage of the tight end should help Randy be a solid starter for your fantasy team.
Never Say Goodbye - Bon Jovi
One of many power ballads from Bon Jovi, this song taught us all how to love again - or maybe not. It did, however, remind us that letting go is never easy. These receivers may never want to say goodbye, but it’s time they did. Like Jerry Rice circa 2003, their diminished skills and receding hairlines are sure indicators that they are no longer viable fantasy options.
Bobby Engram SEA: It was in the previous millennium when Bobby Engram had a season even close to what he had last year. Don’t expect it to continue. If Branch can stay healthy this year, he should see most of the passes, leaving Engram as just another third option.
Joey Galloway TB: I’ll admit, Joey Galloway looks pretty good for a guy who’s 106 years old, but everyone has to slow down sometime. His receptions, yards, and touchdowns have decreased each of the last three seasons, and he had five games in ‘07 in which he had two or less catches. It’s time for Joey to apply for his AARP card and head down to the diner to catch the early bird special.
Donald Driver GB: Driver probably has a few more years left in him as an NFL receiver, but as a fantasy threat, he’s just about done. For the last four or five years, he’s been Brett Favre’s security blanket; seeing more passes than any other Green Bay receiver. But with Favre retired/traded/benched/released, Driver is just another one of Aaron Rodgers’ targets. In addition, Ryan Grant has improved the running game to the point where the offense should be more balanced meaning fewer passes still. His days of being an excellent Driver may be over.
Derrick Mason BAL: Similar to Driver, Mason lost a quarterback in Steve McNair who relied on him heavily. Never a huge touchdown producer, Mason got it done with sheer volume. His reception total was a career high last year, but his yards per catch was a career low. With a new QB, a new offensive philosophy, and one more year past his prime, expect Mason to have a sharp decline this season.
Isaac Bruce SF: Bruce hasn’t been a serious fantasy threat for about four years, and his move to San Francisco won’t help matters. It’s hard to see him improving on last year’s numbers with Alex Smith throwing him the ball. Look for a slow and steady decline from Rev. Bruce.
Marty Booker CHI: Saying you’re the best receiver in Chicago is kind of like saying you’re the skinniest person on “The Biggest Loser.” Booker was never fast, he’s getting old, and his quarterbacks are bad awful. Devin Hester might be the only viable choice at wideout for the Bears and that’s only because he’ll get a few scores on returns.
Javon Walker OAK: At only 29, Walker may be the youngest person on this list, but he has the knees of a 50 year old carpet layer. I’m not saying he couldn’t have a renaissance of sorts in Oakland, I’m just saying I wouldn’t use a draft pick to find out.
Ike Hilliard TB: Ike’s career ended in about 2003, but no one bothered to tell him. If I really have to talk you out of drafting this guy, then I want you picking ahead of me in this year’s draft.
David Patten NO: While Patten has had some productive years in the NFL, and played well last year for the Saints, he’s about out of gas as a fantasy option. With up-and-coming receivers like Moore and Meachem, there just won’t be enough passes to go around, and Patten is looking like the odd man out.
Muhsin Muhammad CAR: Hoping to rekindle a little ‘04 magic, Muhammad signed with the Panthers for a second time this off-season. At 35 years old, he just doesn’t have enough left to be a viable fantasy option anymore. He’ll split time with Hackett and Jarrett, but the Panthers will probably go with the younger players if there’s no clear cut second starter opposite Steve Smith. On the plus side, after three years of Rex Grossman, Jake Dehlomme should look like Peyton Manning to Muhsin.
I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For - U2
What Bono is looking for in this song is unclear. Peace? An end to world hunger? His last name? What is clear is that he’s been to quite a few places to find it. Some receivers are not quite ready to make the jump to big time fantasy playmakers. It may be due to inexperience or just too many talented players ahead of them, but they’re not quite ready yet. In keeper leagues, they may be an option, but in most fantasy leagues U2 should avoid them.
Reggie Williams JAC: Williams set career highs in yards, yards per catch, and touchdowns last season. This was either a sign of things to come or a fluke. I’ll go with fluke. Over 25% of his catches last year went for touchdowns - unless your name is Randy Moss, that kind of thing just doesn’t happen. Adding Jerry Porter to the mix will make things more difficult for Williams, as will the Jaguars strong running game. You can expect most of Williams numbers to be close to last season’s, but the touchdowns will be cut in half.
Anthony Gonzalez IND: After a solid rookie season, Gonzalez should progress as a second year pro. However, that doesn’t mean his numbers will be any better than last year. Harrison and Clark are both healthy, which will mean fewer passes to Gonzalez. Also, with Manning missing most of training camp, the only regular who he hasn’t been throwing the ball to for several seasons is Gonzalez. It may take a few weeks for those two to regain their chemistry. Expect nothing more than decent numbers from Gonzalez this season.
Bernard Berrian MIN: It’s hard to believe Berrian was looking anywhere but at all those zeros on his contract when he chose his team for 2008. If there was one team with a worse QB than the Bears last season, it may have been the Vikings, and there was no one who had a poorer group of receivers. Berrian has made progress over the last two years, but I’m not sure he’s ready to be a number one receiver yet. Having to carry the passing game, even on a team with running backs like Minnesota, is far more than Berrian is ready to handle. Expect his numbers to slip some this year.
Reggie Brown PHI: Three full seasons in the NFL, and Reggie Brown still hasn’t figured it out. The Eagles refuse to bring in a true number one wide receiver, hoping that Brown will be able to transition into that role. Is this the year it will happen? Nope. Outside of Brian Westbrook, there is no one in this offense who can take pressure of off Brown and he simply isn’t capable of handling his current role.
Demetrius Williams BAL: Williams had a solid start to the ‘07 season before injuries cut it short, and he is entering that all important third year for a receiver. But he’s still a third option on a team that will have struggles at quarterback all year. I’d wait at least one more year before I seriously considered this guy.
Steve Smith NYG: While he won’t be confused with the other receiver named Steve Smith, this one did have a playoff run that poised him for a promising ‘08. Problem is, there are just too many receivers in New York right now. At best he’s third but most likely fourth in the rotation and, unless you play for the Colts, that won’t get it done in fantasy football.
Ted Ginn Jr. MIA: If Dolphin fans were upset about drafting Ginn with the ninth pick last year, they’re going to be livid when they see his production this season. Ginn was always more of an athlete than receiver at THE Ohio State University, and not a whole lot has changed. The fact that Miami brought in Terry Glenn shows their desire to have a true number one receiver, which Ginn is not. Pass on him this year because the Dolphins won’t be passing much to him.
Sidney Rice MIN: Unless there’s a new quarterback in Minnesota by week one, don’t expect too much from Rice in ‘08. The run-heavy Viking offense will limit his touches and Berrian will take away some of the deep passes Rice saw last year. He should improve some, but not enough to spend a high or even middle round pick on.
Laurent Robinson ATL: Robinson should be a starter in Atlanta this year, but he’s not ready to be a fantasy starter yet. He had a decent rookie season, but there is too much uncertainty in the Falcon offense and too little experience at quarterback to trust Robinson to make any kind of consistent contribution to your team.
Devard Darling KC: Darling showed flashes of what he could be in the Chiefs offense last year and is pushing for a starting job in ‘08. Considering the Chiefs’ below average offense and young quarterback, he may be worth a late round flyer but not much else.
Sam Hurd DAL: A number three receiver in an offense as potent as the Cowboys can be as good as a number two somewhere else. Although Hurd may be the number three in Dallas, he pretty much held that job last year and did not put up huge numbers. Expect some improvement, but not enough to count on him in any meaningful way.
Devin Hester CHI: Someone will buy into the Devin Hester hype. If he can catch 5-6 touchdowns and return 5-6 touchdowns, that’s 10-12 touchdowns, which is as good as most number one receivers. The truth is, receiver is a tough position to learn and Hester hasn’t mastered it yet. He could be solid, but chances are you would have to overpay to get him.
Greg Olsen TE CHI: Olsen showed us what he may become someday for a brief stretch in ‘07, but he’ll need to put those kind of numbers up consistently in order to be a real threat. Still sharing time with Desmond Clark won’t help any, and while he still will have that occasional big game, he’s not quite ready for prime time.
Do You Really Want to Hurt Me? - Culture Club
Every man has that wildly uncomfortable moment in his life when he realizes the woman he’s been drooling over is actually a man (Aerosmith even wrote a song about it). For many, Boy George was that woman and “Do You Really Want to Hurt Me” was the video. There’s no doubt that he/she hurt more than a few men with this song. Some receivers can hurt you almost as badly. They go for 150 yards and two scores one week and then one catch for six yards the next. You want to put them on the bench, but you know that big game is just around the corner. They are the very reason wide receivers and androgynous singers should come with a warning label.
Roy Williams DET: Even though Williams’ season was cut short by injuries last year, he still managed to show why he is one of the more frustrating receivers in the league. He has a 204-yard, one-touchdown performance against Philly and followed it up with five consecutive games of less than 100 yards and no touchdowns. When he on, he’s as good as anyone. He’s just not on enough to make him a reliable starter on your fantasy team.
Plaxico Burress NYG: In the first six games of ‘07, Burress caught eight touchdowns. In the last 10 regular season games, Burress caught exactly four touchdown passes. In the Super Bowl he caught the biggest touchdown pass of the season. The big start and bigger finish may make people forget that the middle was not very good. Plax has spent eight years with a world of talent but not nearly enough production to show for it. The whole contract mess this year won’t help matters. He’ll be drafted too high to make it worth taking him.
Jerricho Cotchery NYJ: The good news is Cotchery had four games over the 100-yard mark. The bad news is he only had two touchdown catches. Most leagues don’t reward yards enough to make up for that low of a number. An improved running game may also mean fewer passes for Jerricho.
Kevin Curtis PHI: Curtis posted solid numbers last year but he did most of his damage in 3 games. 453 yards and 5 of his 6 total touchdowns came in those games. In comparison, he had five games last year where he failed to gain even 50 receiving yards. If you can figure out the three or four games Curtis will play well in this year, then by all means draft him, otherwise let someone else be fooled by last year’s 1,100-yard season.
Chris Chambers SD: Chambers has been an eight-year tease for fantasy football owners. Maybe it’s because Miami never had a real quarterback while he was there. It could be that he never had any other receivers to take the heat off of him. It could be that he just doesn’t try very hard. Whatever the reason, he has no excuse for not having a big year this season. Philip Rivers is a good and possibly very good quarterback. Antonio Gates and LT demand enough attention to prevent double teams, and he’s had half a season and a full off-season to adjust to his new teammates. If he doesn’t show solid numbers week in and week out this year, write him off.
Donte’ Stallworth CLE: In an offense built for scoring points, Stallworth did precious little scoring last season. It’s possible the Patriots had too many weapons and only one ball to divide among them. Cleveland, however, doesn’t offer much more opportunity. With Edwards, Winslow, and Jamal Lewis, Stallworth will have a hard time putting up consistently good numbers in ‘08.
Kevin Walter HOU: Walter had a break-out year in ‘07 and should start again for the Texans this year. Although his overall numbers looked good, he had five games last season of two or fewer catches, and with only four scores, picking the right games to start him was all but impossible. Expect much the same from Walter this season.
Vernon Davis TE SF: Davis has been wildly inconsistent in his first two NFL seasons and recent changes to the 49er offense make it difficult to believe that much will change in ‘08. Mike Martz’s offense is not exactly tight end friendly, so either he changes his system or Davis changes where he plays on the field (or he just puts up lousy numbers this year). Too many other good choices at tight end and too little certainty from Davis make it difficult to recommend drafting him.
Ben Watson TE NE: After a great start to ‘07, Watson fizzled out around week 6 when an ankle injury slowed him down. Despite his full recovery, the Patriots have too many weapons, especially in the red zone, to count on any consistency from him.
L.J. Smith TE PHI: Even without all the injuries last season, L.J. has always been kind of a hit and miss guy. Playing in a stagnant offense with an aging quarterback, he’ll have a hard time putting up solid numbers this year. Draft him as a backup and nothing more.
Money for Nothing - Dire Straits
Everyone dreams of a life of leisure. No responsibilities, no cares, no worries. Dire Straits knew all too well the struggles of the working man, and how so very few could live out their lives without concerning themselves with working for their money. Apparently, these receivers have taken this song to heart. High draft positions and huge signing bonuses have not led to any sort of production. Like that guy in the office who spends all his time in the break room, the bathroom, and the secretary’s desk, these guys are completely useless.
Laveranues Coles NYJ: After showing some promise three or four years ago, Coles has been a big disappointment lately. Playing in the Jets anemic offense may have something to do with that, but his inability to find the end zone on a regular basis has frustrated many a fantasy owner. You can find much better options out there than Coles.
Arnaz Battle SF: Whatever production you may have expected from Arnaz Battle went up in smoke when the 49ers signed Isaac Bruce. This guy has been nothing but a disappointment ever since he was drafted. As a third receiver, expect his numbers to drop in an offense that already struggles to throw the ball.
Nate Burleson SEA: If Burleson is ever going to live up to the huge contract he signed with Seattle nearly three years ago, it had better be now. Last season he couldn’t outperform a geriatric Bobby Engram and an injured Deion Branch. While Minnesota doesn’t have much at receiver these days, they must be thankful they didn’t match Seattle’s offer to this guy.
D.J. Hackett CAR: I’m having a hard time understanding how D.J. Hackett is supposed to put up big numbers this year. Granted, he’s playing alongside Steve Smith, so he should get lots of one on one coverage, but he’s had a hard time staying healthy and with an experienced Muhsin Muhammad and last year’s second-round pick Dwayne Jarrett behind him, I could easily see Hackett struggling this year.
Jerry Porter JAC: It doesn’t seem that long ago that Porter surprised everyone with a 51 catch, nine touchdown season. That was actually in 2002, and Porter has been overrated ever since. If a receiver is going to have a T.O. attitude, he better put up T.O. numbers. Porter has been inconsistent to say the least, and he makes every excuse in the book. Porter has a new team but the same old problems; already he’s been placed on the P.U.P. list. I wouldn’t waste time on him and I’m more than a little surprised Jacksonville did.
Bryant Johnson SF: If anyone saw Johnson’s 2006 numbers and thought he had turned the corner, 2007 showed them just how un-corner-turned Johnson was. That corner-turning will not take place in ‘08 either. An average receiver on a below average team with a well below average quarterback means it’s time to look for other fantasy options.
Ernest Wilford MIA: Ernest Wilford moving from Jacksonville to Miami is why the phrase “rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic” was created. Go from one run-oriented team with no clear cut number one receiver and a less than dynamic passer to another one. He didn’t even bother to move out of state for crying out loud. The change of scenery won’t help Wilford and he won’t help you if you draft him.
Keary Colbert DEN: Given a big contract and a chance to compete for the number two spot behind Marshall, Colbert has already played himself into the third and possibly fourth spot in the receiver rotation. By the end of training camp he should be washing towels.
Michael Jenkins ATL: Question: What do you call a receiver who can’t catch a ball? Answer: Michael Jenkins. In the new offensive system in Atlanta, Jenkins will see the field far less often and the ball even lesser. In addition, it would appear Robinson has stolen his starting spot.
Josh Reed BUF: Reed’s reputation as a guy who just gets things done on the football field is well deserved. Few players do more with less than him. That reputation doesn’t apply to the world of fantasy football. He doesn’t score, he has games where he disappears, and Buffalo’s conservative offense mean limited value for the Bills’ number two receiver.
Shaun McDonald DET: It’s not really his fault that his numbers will take a tumble in ‘08, but he has to be listed in this category anyway. A knee problem has been slow to heal and without the Mike Martz pass-happy offense, he won’t see the field nearly as often as he did in the past.
Desmond Clark TE CHI: Clark has been a solid fantasy option since joining the Bears, but you don’t draft a tight end in the first round to sit him on the bench. Ever since Greg Olsen was picked in the first round in ‘07, Clark’s days as the Bears’ starting tight end have been numbered, This year they will come to an end. Don’t expect Clark to match, or even approach his ‘07 numbers.
I Hate Myself for Loving You - Joan Jett and the Blackhearts
Joan Jett was really on to something when she recorded this song. She could have been talking about some man that was handsome and successful but had some character flaw like being a Nazi. She could have been referring to some dessert that was so delicious but so fattening. She even could have meant some movie that you knew was a chick flick and that all your friends would make fun of you if they knew you liked it but that Julia Roberts and Richard Gere were just so perfect for each other and they just had to get together in the end because sometimes life can be just like the fairy tales . . . But I digress. No one will question these receivers’ talent or production, it’s just that they’re such jerks, it makes it really, really hard to cheer for them to do well even if their success is your success.
Terrell Owens DAL: He complains about his contract, he cries about his quarterback, and he seems more concerned with end zone celebrations than catching the ball, yet T.O. seems to get better every season. Don’t let his age or mouth stop you from drafting Owens.
Chad Johnson CIN: If Chad Johnson plays better during adverse times, this should be a huge year for him. After all the off season drama, Johnson did end up reporting to camp and has a lot of fences to mend. Nothing makes things all better like winning and the Bengals can’t win unless Johnson puts up huge numbers. Expect the newest Cincinnati pariah, Carson Palmer, to hook up with the old Cincinnati pariah early and often this season.
Jeremy Shockey TE NO: He’s brash, arrogant, and cocky, but most of all he’s good. Playing in an offense as dynamic as the Saints‘, he should find plenty of open space and lots of touchdowns. You should also not underestimate his desire to show the Giants what a huge mistake they made. This type of guy tends to play better when he’s upset.
Don’t Fear the Reaper - Blue Oyster Cult
Father Time has a way of catching up to us all, and no one sums up the frailty of human life quite like BOC. Like anyone else, these receivers are starting to feel the effects of time, but they don’t fear the Reaper. They have at least one productive year left in them and with a little hard work, a little luck, and a lot more cowbell, these often overlooked senior citizens of the NFL can still be productive members of your fantasy team.
Torry Holt STL: Torry’s numbers have dipped ever so slightly over the past two seasons. This may because Mike Martz and his pass-happy offense left, or it could be that all the wear and tear of nine NFL seasons if starting to catch up with him. Either way, it’s hard to expect Holt to match 1,300-yard, double-digit touchdown seasons he used to post regularly, but he still has a few good to great seasons left in him.
Hines Ward PIT: Ward’s numbers have steadily decreased since 2002, but he’s always remained a solid receiver choice among fantasy owners. After seeing his yards per catch dip to 10.3, the lowest of his career, and his lowest yardage total since 2000, many owners may stay away from Hines, thinking his best years are behind him. Don’t believe it. Ward has never been a guy who relies on speed, so losing a step doesn’t hurt him as much as other receivers. Also, Pittsburg’s new-found passing game means more receptions for everybody. Look for Ward to rebound from a disappointing ‘07 and get close to 1,000 yards receiving again.
Marvin Harrison IND: Marvin has always been underrated. Three receivers were drafted ahead of him in 1996 including Eddie Kennison. While T.O., Chad Johnson, and Randy Moss get most of the headlines, Marvin just put up big numbers and kept his mouth shut. Now, coming off a knee injury that limited him to 5 games last season, many are questioning whether or not he has anything left. Fantasy owner have nothing to worry about. Harrison will be fine. He will be better than fine. Peyton Manning will make sure of it. Let him slide a round or two and then pick up a number one receiver for a number two price.
Amani Toomer NYG: ACL injuries usually take a full year to heal, which may help explain why Toomer didn’t get off to a great start in ‘07. The playoffs were a different story and showed everyone that Amani still has some gas left in the tank. He’ll still start and he’ll still put up solid, if unspectacular numbers.
Tony Gonzalez TE KC: Gonzalez is supposed to be slowing down, but apparently he didn’t get the message. Tony is still as good as any tight end in the league and has remained durable throughout his career. If he slides even a little in your draft, grab him - good tight ends are still hard to find.
Best of the Rest
Dennis Northcutt JAC: An average receiver. No better than a fill-in if you have multiple injuries.
Justin McCareins TEN: Could be a steal if he ends up starting in Tennessee.
Devery Henderson NO: The Shockey signing costs Henderson most of his value.
James Hardy BUF: Only because after Lee Evans the Bills don’t have much at receiver.
Nate Washington PIT: Drafting Limas Sweed hurts Washington’s value.
Jacoby Jones HOU: If he has a training camp like last year, he may push for the number three spot.
Mark Clayton BAL: Has never lived up to expectations but will see a lot of playing time.
Michael Clayton TB: Has yet to duplicate his rookie success.
Joe Jurevicius CLE: If he can get healthy, he’ll be the third receiver in Cleveland.
James Jones GB: Should be third receiver in Green Bay.
Darrell Jackson DEN: Watch camp closely - he may end up starting.
Robert Meachem NO: Has shown some flashes early in camp.
Troy Williamson JAC: If he starts for the Jags, he might be adequate for a fantasy roster.
Dwayne Jarrett CAR: The spot opposite Smith is open, maybe Jarrett grabs it.
Terry Glenn MIA: The only question mark is how long will the knee hold up?
Alex Smith TE TB: Also known as the Alex Smith who can actually play a little bit.
Robert Royal TE BUF: A red zone threat but not much else.
Next week: Kickers and Defense
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