Welcome back to our 2008 fantasy football preview. If you read last week’s installment, you know that running backs are the sitcoms of the 1980’s. Like a sitcom, a running back is essential to any good lineup. You can’t win a fantasy league without a solid running game, and you can’t win sweeps week without some quality sitcoms. Quarterbacks, on the other hand, are like big budget movies. They come with a lot of hype, they have the biggest stars, and when they flop, everyone knows it. The following movies will help us to rank our quarterbacks not necessarily from top to bottom, but in how they will help their franchise, and more importantly, your fantasy team..
Trading Places
Eddie Murphy at the height of his comedic genius and Dan Akroid before his head swelled like he was Barry Bonds. Lewis Winthorp III, a well-to-do stockbroker is thrown out on the streets while Billy Ray Valentine, a unemployed con artist, moves on up like George Jefferson. Hilarity ensues. Every year there are some quarterbacks who go from second fiddle to top banana. At the same time, starters are often replaced, or at the very least, put on a short leash. Which Billy Ray should you save space for on your roster and which Lewis Winthorp should you avoid? Let’s find out.
Matt Schaub/Sage Rosenfels, Houston: Matt Schaub had better be looking over his surgically repaired shoulder. In nearly half of the games in which he played last season, he failed to throw a touchdown pass. Rosenfels threw a TD in every game in which he played. Their passer ratings were nearly identical as were their completion percentages. They could each take credit for four of their team’s wins from last season. As I see it, Schaub is the starter right now because Houston gave up a pair of second round picks to get him. But, with a real desire to make the playoffs this season, don’t think Coach Kubiak will hesitate to make the switch if his team gets off to a slow start.
Aaron Rodgers/Brett Favre, Green Bay: I don’t think you could make up a more confusing quarterback situation than the one currently in Green Bay. If Favre stays retired, Rodgers is the man. Ted Thompson says that even if Favre does come back, Rodgers is the man. He also says Favre won’t be released and that there have been no serious inquiries about a possible trade. Based on that information, Rodgers is the starting QB with a boatload of talented weapons at his disposal. Of course, if Favre shows up at training camp and forces the issue, will he win back his starting job, or do just enough to mess up Rodgers confidence and team chemistry? I would stay away from any quarterback wearing a big “G” on his helmet until this situation clears itself up.
Matt Leinart/Kurt Warner, Arizona: This pair of quarterbacks couldn’t be more different. Leinart came in as a highly touted first round draft pick, Heisman trophy winning, party boy from Southern Cal. Warner was a former Arena League, God fearing, bag boy from somewhere in Iowa. Leinert is the big investment for Arizona, and he’s going into camp listed as the starter.. Warner has proven that he is still capable of starting and playing at a high level. The deciding factor may be Ken Whisenhunt. Ken started the turnaround last year, getting the Cards to 8-8 (which, in Arizona, is like going 12-4). He doesn’t want to take a step backward in year number two. He didn’t draft Leinart, he didn’t sign Leinart to his big contract, and he has no obligation to play Leinart if he doesn’t give them the best chance to win. If the Cards get off to a poor start, expect to see Warner back under center in the desert.
Kellen Clemens/Chad Pennington, New York Jets: At this point in their careers, Pennington is probably the better quarterback even though his surgically repaired shoulder could fall off at any minute. Here’s the thing: the Jets are nowhere near good enough to contend for the AFC East and will be out of the wildcard race by the time the leaves start changing color. Pennington is 32 and not getting any better. At this point, the Jets are wiser to start Clemens to give him some experience and see if he is capable of being their permanent starter. Once the Jets figure this out, Clemens will make an adequate last minute fill in on your fantasy roster and not much else.
Rex Grossman/Kyle Orton, Chicago: If you’re a Chicago Bears fan, you will be following these two throughout training camp wondering who will be the starter come opening weekend. The rest of us feel sorry for the Chicago Bear fans who have to know that no matter who wins the starting job, he’ll still be the worst QB in the NFC North (which is really saying something). If Orton wins the starting job, don’t draft him - he’s awful. However, if Grossman wins the job, don’t draft him either - he sucks too.
Josh McCown/John Beck, Miami: The offense will be awful, but someone has to lead it. Right now McCown has the edge, and since Parcels brought him in, he will get a fair chance. But the Dolphins can’t afford to have another stinker of a season like last year, so if Josh stumbles, Beck may get his chance sooner rather than later. However it pans out, neither is draftable.
The Empire Strikes Back
The second and best of the original Star Wars trilogy, there was no Jar Jar Binks, or Ewoks to screw this movie up. This was George Lucas at the absolute top of his game: Yoda, Darth dueling with Luke, Han Solo frozen in carbonite - everything you needed for a classic sci-fi film. The following quarterbacks are also at the top of their games. Coming off of great seasons, these signal callers look to have even bigger years in 2008. It’s tough to say you should take a QB in the first round, but the Force is strong in all of these guys.
Tom Brady, New England: He’s dated actresses and supermodels. He’s won Super Bowls and MVPs. He’s been a guest star on Family Guy. He’s coming off what is arguably the greatest year a quarterback has ever had. A pessimist would say Brady has nowhere to go but down . . . And the pessimist would probably be right. Despite the fact that the Patriots have the easiest schedule in football and a coach who clearly doesn’t mind running up the score, 50 passing touchdowns is a lot to ask of anyone. Yet Brady is in his prime, has two tremendous receivers, and rarely hurts your team with lots of interceptions. If you want Brady at quarterback, better get him in round one..
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis: In all likelihood, Manning will be the gold standard by which all fantasy quarterbacks will ever be measured. He’s never thrown for fewer than 3,500 yards, and he’s never had less than 25 touchdowns in a season. He’s never missed a start, and he plays for a offensive coordinator that lets him do just about whatever he wants. While Brady and Favre got most of the publicity last year, Manning just did what he always does and put up ridiculously good numbers. His one drawback (recent knee surgery) may even become a benefit. If he and the Colts get off to a slow start, they may need a big second half for playoff positioning. Manning owners have been burned in the past by having him sitting on the Colts bench during fantasy playoffs because the Colts were playing a meaningless game. Big games late in the season for Manning could mean playoff success for you.
Tony Romo, Dallas: Tony Romo is Tom Brady Lite. Though a late draft pick, Tom was at least selected; Tony was a undrafted free agent. Tom replaced Drew Bledsoe and led his team to a Super Bowl victory; Tony replaced Bledsoe and led his team to the playoffs. Tom has impregnated an actress and a supermodel. Tony only dates singers, and has yet to sire any progeny. Tom has only lost once in the playoffs, Tony has never won. Tom threw 50 touchdowns last year; Tony - a mere 36. If your fantasy league keeps track of playoff statistics, children sired, or women dated - Brady is definitely your guy.. But in most leagues, Tony Romo will suit your quarterbacking needs just fine. If last year’s progression is any indication (and all indicators indicate that it will be an indication), Tony Romo Lite may be starting for the Patriots next season.
License To Drive
There’s an old Hollywood rule that says never work with children or animals. License to Drive chose the former, using three young teenagers to sell this film. While the two Coreys were the early box office smashes, who would have guessed that a young Heather Graham would eventually be the one with the biggest career? Rookie quarterbacks are often a gamble in fantasy leagues. Some end up starring with Mike Meyers in summer blockbusters while others become the subject of E! True Hollywood Stories. When drafting your team, just like in real life, always pick Heather Graham.
Brodie Croyle, Kansas City: While Croyle isn’t technically a rookie, last year was such a throw-away year for him and the Chiefs that I decided to throw him in here anyway. Brodie showed signs last year, but most of those were signs that he wasn’t ready to hold down the starting spot yet. Because of Kansas City’s youth movement, Croyle will be given more than a fair shot this year, but don’t expect him to deliver too many fantasy points.
JaMarcus Russell, Oakland: The Brodie rules also apply to Russell for our purposes. JaMarcus, however, has a far higher ceiling than his AFC West counterpart. A newly improved running game will take pressure off of Russell. He’ll also have a hard time overthrowing newly acquired deep threat Javon Walker. There will be some ups and downs with JaMarcus, but he should make a decent backup.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta: Ryan is officially listed as third on the Falcons depth chart behind Chris Redmond and Joey Harrington. I would be shocked and/or appalled if the season starts that way. The Falcons are going to be bad awful this year. Everyone - including the Falcons - knows this. Their chief concern is not messing up Ryan by getting him killed early in his career. Expect Redmond to start the season, but after the Falcons have been officially eliminated from the playoffs (around their week 7 bye), expect Ryan to take over.
Joe Flacco, Baltimore: Of all the quarterbacks drafted this year, I think Flacco has the best chance of starting early and putting up OK numbers. The Ravens have a decent but aging team and they know Kyle Boller is not taking them to the playoffs. If Flacco shows he can handle the pressure in training camp, he just might get the opportunity to play early in his rookie year.. He has a solid supporting cast that will help him out. Not a fantasy starter by any means but he could be a capable fill in on the right week.
Brady Quinn, Cleveland: What if last year was a fluke? What if the Browns get off to a horrible start and Derek Anderson struggles? It’s not that much of a stretch. Their early season schedule is brutal, with home games against Dallas and Pittsburg followed by two roadies vs. Baltimore and Cincinnati. Is a 1-3 start a possibility? I say yes. Could Anderson struggle against three tough defenses? Again, I say yes. With all the hype surrounding this season, Romeo Crennel does not want to see it get away from him early. He may take the week 5 bye to prep hometown hero Brady Quinn for the starting spot. It’s possible that this year’s Derek Anderson may end up replacing the real Derek Anderson.
Brian Brohm, Green Bay: Everything would have to go right for Brohm to see the field this season. Favre would need to stay retired or get traded away. Rodgers would have to collapse under the pressure of replacing a legend or get injured (that part’s not so hard to believe). But if all this happens, Brohm is Green Bay’s best bet. Granted, this would be like handing the keys of your Ferrari to a sixteen year old kid, but with all those weapons maybe Brohm could put up some decent fantasy numbers.
Chad Henne, Miami: Want a rookie quarterback playing for a anemic offense on a horrible team? Me either. If McCown and Beck both struggle, he could see the field but the results won’t be pretty.
Red Dawn
Starring a pre-Dirty Dancing Patrick Swayze and Jennifer Grey, this is one of the most underrated movies of all time. Communists invade Colorado, and the Wolverines are the only ones left to fight back. It’s cheesy, almost ridiculously non-gory, and unintentionally funny. Yet, if you watch this film, you will have a good time - no question. These quarterbacks may have some flaws, but on Monday morning, you’ll be glad you had them.
Drew Brees, New Orleans: He’s smaller than your average quarterback, he has a history of shoulder problems, and he has games where he completely implodes (he had 5 games last season when he had more picks than touchdowns). But he plays on a team that is loaded with weapons (add Jeremy Shockey and they are as dangerous as anyone), they love to pass, and their defense gave up 24 points a game last season. Brees may not be an elite quarterback, but he will keep you in the game most weeks and occasionally win one by himself.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh: If you just look at Ben’s final numbers, you could make a case for him being the fourth best fantasy QB in the draft. However, a closer look tells you he still has some work to do. Touchdown passes in all but one game - good. A completion percentage under 60% in four games - bad. Five games with three or more touchdowns - good. Seven games with under 200 yards passing - bad. Roethlisberger is good, he’s just not great. He still has plenty of time to work out these inconsistencies, but until he does, you have to take the good with the bad if you draft Big Ben.
Derek Anderson, Cleveland: Anderson built his reputation with a five touchdown performance against the Bengals. While he never came close to that number again, he was a solid fantasy starter considering he went undrafted in most (and by most I mean all) leagues. This time Anderson won’t be flying under the radar. If you draft him, you’ll most likely have to use one of your top three of four picks to get him. Worth it? Consider the following: They added Donte Stallworth to help the passing game, but lost Joe Jurevicius for at least the first six weeks. Over the last seven games last season Anderson threw for only nine touchdowns and only once in those games did he have a QB rating over 90. While Anderson should still be a solid starter, the league may have figured him out a little. He’s a good option if you don’t have to use a top three pick to get him.
Carson Palmer, Cincinnati: Palmer’s touchdown numbers have decreased each of the last three years while his interceptions have increased each of the last three years. Needless to say, this is a disturbing trend. In a league that offers few solid choices at quarterback, Palmer is still in the top third. Just don’t let his name and reputation trick you into drafting him earlier than you should.
Jay Cutler, Denver: It’s not that I don’t like Jay Cutler, it’s just that I don’t know what the Broncos are doing. They draft Maurice Clarett in the third round, then cut him before he even takes the field. They trade a second rounder for Javon Walker then cut him loose before he has time to fill out his change of address cards. They sign Travis Henry to a big free agent deal then . . . OK I get that one. Point is, their once feared offense was in the bottom half of the league in touchdowns last season and they haven’t done much to improve that. Give Cutler some better weapons and some consistency, and he should be fine. With what they have now, it’s hard to see him improving much upon his ‘07 numbers.
Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle: If Hasselbeck stays healthy, history tells us you can expect about 25 touchdowns and 3,200 yards from him. These numbers are comparable to most of the guys in this category. What I like so much about Hasselbeck is his consistency. Last season he had only one really bad game. That can’t be said for Cutler, Palmer, or even Brees. He knows the west coast offense about as well as anyone in the league, and does a nice job of taking care of the ball. If you have a solid running game and a couple of decent receivers, you may be able to wait on a QB until Hasselbeck rolls around.
Philip Rivers, San Diego: A second year as a starter, and a second solid season from Philip Rivers. Is he ready to make the jump from solid to very good or even great this year? Yes and yes. He won a lot or respect in the locker room for his performance against the Colts in last year’s playoffs. With Gates, LT, and his own knee fully healed, all his weapons are back. In addition, he will have Chris Chambers for a full season. Chambers and Rivers started building chemistry last season, and really clicked in the playoffs.. Look for a very solid and maybe even spectacular year from Rivers this season.
Eli Manning, New York Giants: In “Revenge of the Nerds,” Poindexter asked the question, “Would you rather live during the ascendancy of a civilization or during its decline?” Wise words that any fantasy owner would do well to ask when it comes to quarterbacks. Would you rather have a McNabb or Bulger or another QB who is still solid but clearly on the downside of his career, or do you roll the dice with someone who is still learning the position? The gains Eli made in the playoffs last year cannot be emphasized enough.. He has confidence, poise, and a new-found respect from his teammates. Trust in Peyton’s nerdy little brother to continue to improve his fantasy numbers in 2008.
Jason Campbell, Washington: In the infamous words of Denny Green, Jason Campbell “was who we thought he was.” He went through the typical first year starter growing pains that almost every other NFL quarterback has experienced. The question is, will he progress or regress in his second season as starter. With a solid supporting cast, look for Campbell to improve upon his numbers from last season - not enough to be a fantasy starter, but certainly enough to be a capable backup.
Jake Delhomme, Carolina: Matt Moore was a nice story last year, but let’s be realistic. Jake Delhomme is the starter in Carolina as long as he stays healthy. He had 8 touchdowns and only one pick in the three games in which he played last season. That’s as good as anyone in the NFL not named Brady. He has one of the best receivers in the game on his team and a new and improved running game. He’s either a low end starter or a top flight reserve and depending on his health, could be the steal of the draft.
Ishtar
Ishtar is an Babylonian word that roughly translates into “stink burger.” Though it starred two Oscar winners in Warren Beatty and Dustin Hoffman, this film has been panned by critics and moviegoers alike. There are always quarterbacks who enter a season with a big reputation and high expectations. Some succeed, others end up as lounge singers in Morocco. These are the Moroccan lounge singers:
David Garrard, Jacksonville: Classic case of a good system quarterback being confused with a good fantasy quarterback. He’s the anti-Jeff George. George led the league in passing yards one season and yards per completion in another. In the last four seasons in which he was his team’s starter, he threw over 20 touchdowns each time. Yet there’s a reason he played for five teams in 12 years - despite all his physical tools, he couldn’t do the little things to be a good NFL quarterback. Garrard, on the other hand, is a very good NFL quarterback - he just can’t do the things that make a good fantasy quarterback. Only once did he throw for three touchdowns in a game last year. He had exactly zero 300 yard passing games. He is a natural born game manager playing on a team with a conservative offense and not one quality wideout. It’s the perfect storm for a wasted draft pick.
Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia: McNabb played in 14 games last season. In three of those games, he threw for 11 total touchdowns. In the other 11 games, eight touchdowns. He’s been a big name QB for many years, but has only had about three productive fantasy seasons. He hasn’t played a full season in five years, and hasn’t topped 20 touchdowns in four. He’ll go higher than he should based on name recognition, but anyone who looks at the numbers knows this guys just about had it.
Jon Kitna, Detroit: Kitna was a bit of a surprise last year, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 18 scores. But if you’re expecting a repeat performance from him in ‘08, you may be sorely disappointed. He won’t be playing in Mike Martz’s offense this season and the defenses in the NFC North are no pushovers. Kitna will make a nice bye week fill-in, but if you count on him to start for you, then you’re no smarter than Matt Millen.
Vince Young, Tennessee: The theory goes like this: a running quarterback is inherently more valuable than a pocket passer because of the extra rushing yards and touchdowns he accrues. The theory holds up nicely when applied to players like Randall Cunningham and Steve Young, who were good passers to begin with. Michael Vick showed us how this theory can be horribly, horribly misapplied. Vick never had more than 20 touchdown passes and never more than 24 total touchdowns in a season. His career completion percentage was under 54%. Yet every year experts and publications hypothesized that if he could throw 28 and run for 8, he was every bit as good as Peyton Manning. Young throws like Michael Vick, but he doesn’t run like him. Count on 20 combined touchdowns from this guy at best. He’s just another example of a good real-life quarterback who’s not very good in the fantasy world.
Marc Bulger, St. Louis: Mark Bulger looked as if those 202 career sacks had finally started to take their toll in 2007. Having played in 16 games only once as a starter, he missed four more games this past season. Bulger set career lows in TD passes, completion percentage, yards per attempt and QB rating. He also lost Isaac Bruce and the Rams did little to replace him. He’s no longer a fantasy starter, and is too inconsistent and injured to use as a backup.
Trent Edwards, Buffalo: Edwards did just enough to get people wondering if he is a legitimate quarterback in the NFL - he’s not - at least not yet.. Expect another very inconsistent year from Edwards. About the only thing in his favor is it looks like the Bills have completely given up on J.P. Losman, so Edwards will probably not be benched this season.
Alex Smith, San Francisco: Are we allowed to officially call this guy a bust yet? After three seasons Smith has lacked consistency, durability, and competency. Because he was the first overall pick in the draft four years ago, Smith will be the starter in San Francisco to start the season, but I suspect he’ll find a way to play himself out of the lineup before too long.
Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay: First the bad news: the Bucs seem to be playing hardball in their contract negotiations with Garcia, signifying that they may not be totally committed to him as their 2008 starter. Brett Favre’s name has been mentioned many times as a possible replacement should the Packers opt to trade the future hall of famer. Now the good news: Garcia stinks anyway so whether or not he’s Tampa Bay’s starter is totally irrelevant - you should by no means draft him.
Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota: Brad Childress has been saying for months that Jackson is his starting quarterback. Even after Favre flip-flopped on his retirement, Brad held firm saying he wasn’t really interested in Favre and that Jackson would be his opening day starter. Then we find out that Childress and Favre have had several phone conversations over the past few weeks. That’s like your girlfriend telling you she’s so glad she’s with you while she’s surfing Yahoo personals. Childress would prefer not to start Jackson - that’s all you need to know about him.
Best of the Rest
Chris Redman, Atlanta: You’ll have a starter for a few weeks anyway.
Gus Frerotte, Minnesota: The Vikings have a veteran team that won’t tolerate the struggles of a young quarterback. Frerotte was brought in as insurance in case Jackson can’t cut it.
Kyle Boller, Baltimore: Another guy just holding the job until the better player is ready.
Damon Huard, Kansas City: Won’t start, but Kansas City has confidence in him if Croyle can get the job done.
Matt Moore, Carolina: Proved last year that if Delhomme goes down, he is a more than capable backup.
Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia: McNabb thinks the Eagles are the favorites to win the NFC. He also thinks he can stay healthy this year. That makes him wrong about two things.
Todd Collins, Washington: Usually only plays once a decade, but last year’s performance might get him in this year if Campbell can’t stay healthy.
Shaun Hill, San Francisco: When Alex Smith plays himself out of the starting spot, Hill will get another chance to take over.
