Can anyone stop BYU?
The two-time defending Mountain West champions have gone 8-0 in conference play in back-to-back seasons on the way to consecutive 11-2 seasons, Las Vegas Bowl wins, and top-15 finishes.
This season, Bronco Mendenhall’s Cougars are not eyeing conference perfection, but overall perfection, which would likely mean a BCS bowl for BYU, and a return to the prominence that they had throughout the LaVell Edwards era.
If the last couple of seasons are any indication, close games could once again be the key for the Cougars.
BYU has clinched their unbeaten MWC seasons with close wins over archrival Utah, and last season, the Cougars won four games by seven points or less.
But it’s the ones that they haven’t won that will be the difference, as their four losses in the last two seasons are by ten points or less.
Can the Cougars win all of the tight ones and claim a 3rd straight MWC title–and a big New Year’s payday? Or will someone step up and end their dominance?
Conference Favorites
An explosive offense has always been the trademark of BYU’s best teams, and that will certainly be the case this fall.
Max Hall took over for John Beck last season and had a monster season. The junior is back and primed for an even bigger year, as he returns his top four receivers, led by Austin Collie (56 catches, 946 yards, 7 TD) and TE Dennis Pitta (59-813-5).
One of his other leading receivers is running back Harvey Unga, who was a fantastic freshman in 2007, running for 1,227 yards and 13 touchdowns and caught 44 passes for 655 yards and four scores.
The real key for BYU is defense, which takes a big hit due to the departure of three starting linebackers and both starting cornerbacks.
Defensive line will be a strength, with star Jan Jorgensen on one side and Ian Dulan and Brett Denney on the other, and a healthy Russell Tialavea clogging the middle.
Linebacker should also be fine. David Nixon is the only returning starter, but Matt Bauman and Shaun Doman saw significant action last season, and converted tight end (and former HS linebacker) Vic So’oto is a beast at 6’3, 250.
The safety positions are also set with returning starter Kellen Fowler and a healthy David Tafuna, but the new corners must be on the ball, literally. Juniors Scott Johnson and Brandon Howard sit atop the depth chart at each starting corner position, but expect sophomore Brandon Bradley and redshirt freshman G Pittman to see significant action in the secondary as well.
Who will be their closest challenger? It should come down to the Cougars and the archrival Utes of Utah, who have QB Brian Johnson and RB Darrell Mack returning on offense for a team that won eight of their last nine games in 2007, including a Poinsettia Bowl victory over Navy.
Mack, who ran for 1,204 yards and 12 touchdowns and had three receiving touchdowns in a breakout junior season last year, will garner a lot of attention, but the air attack has a lot of potential. Johnson has several experienced targets to throw to, and he’ll be glad to have Brent Casteel (played only two games in ’07) back and ready to go, while JC transfer Aiona Key is one of a trio of big targets with Bradon Godfrey and Freddie Brooks.
On defense, the Utes have to replace the likes of Steve Tate and Martail Burnett, but there are four all-conference candidates in defensive linemen Paul Kruger and Koa Misi and defensive backs Sean Smith and Robert Johnson. So, the Utes definitely have the talent in their ranks to end BYU’s quest for perfection and win their first conference title since their own perfect year in 2004.
Darkhorses
TCU could be flying under the radar this year, which could mean trouble for the MWC, as Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs are full of talent again.
With a year of experience under his belt, Andy Dalton could be one of the top QBs in the conference in 2008, and as usual, the run game will be strong with Joseph Turner and Aaron Brown.
Defensively, the Horned Frogs lose some key players, like DEs Chase Ortiz and Tommy Blake and safety David Roach, but there’s definitely talent on that side of the ball. Linebackers Jason Phillips and Robert Henson could challenge for first-team All-MWC honors, safety Stephen Hodge led the nation in sacks by a defensive back last season with eight, and corner Rafael Priest (37 tackles, 3 INT, 10 pass breakups in 2007) is a two-year starter.
New Mexico has some retooling to do, most notably at receiver. But, they have an explosive ground duo in Paul Baker and Rodney Ferguson, and if QB Donovan Porterie can be consistently efficient, the Lobos should have one of the better offenses in the Mountain West. And on defense, the Lobos might have the best secondary in the conference, led by CB duo DeAndre Wright and Glover Quin.
Air Force had a big turnaround year in Troy Calhoun’s first season, going 9-4 (6-2) as Calhoun was named MWC Coach of the Year. However, the Falcons are in reload mode after losing the bulk of their starting lineup on offense, including MWC Player of the Year Chad Hall and QB Shaun Carney, and several starters on defense. But, this team knows they can win, so don’t count them out.
Wyoming may or may not have a quarterback controversy, but if their starter excels in new OC Bob Cole’s offense, may it be returning starter Karsten Sween or highly-rated JC transfer Dax Crum (shouldn’t he be an action/super hero or sleuth?), the Cowboys could contend for a bowl, with seven starters back on D and eight on offense, including Sween.
The Rest
Mike Sanford has gone 6-29 in his first three seasons at UNLV, and counting John Robinson’s last season in 2004, the Runnin’ Rebels have gone 8-38 in the last four years. It’s pretty obvious that there does need to be some improvement in the win column this season, or Sanford could be out of a job.
Can the improvement happen? Nine starters return on offense, led by QB Travis Dixon (1,873 yards, 8 TD, 8 INT, 324 rushing yards, 2 TD as a freshman last season), who’s locked in a battle with fellow sophomore Omar Clayton for the starting job, RB Frank Summers (928 yards, 6 TD), and WR Ryan Wolfe (66 catches, 784 yards, 2 TD). Defense takes a hit with the loss of 2007 MWC Defensive Player of the Year Beau Bell, but five starters do return.
While UNLV has a coach on the hot seat, Colorado State has a new coach in Steve Fairchild. The Rams haven’t had a winning seasons since 2003, and that streak could continue this season.
However, there should be an improvement over last year’s 3-9 mark. QB Caleb Hanie is gone, along with the top three leading receivers. However, new starter Billy Farris will have a dangerous weapon in Dion Morton, and having the tandem of Gartrell Johnson (957 yards, 6 TD) and Kyle Bell (691 yards, 4 TD) will take the pressure off of him to do too much. On defense, six starters return, led by LB and All-MWC candidate Jeff Horinek (94 tackles, 4.5 for loss).
Kevin O’Connell parlayed a strong senior season and pre-draft workouts into getting drafted in the 3rd round by New England, but he leaves a gaping hole in San Diego State’s offense. However, his successor, Ryan Lindley, could soon be a star in his own right. The offense is pretty thin on returnees (four starters back), but the defense returns eight starters, which could be the key to avoiding a bottom finish.
Conference Predictions
1. BYU: Best offense in the league, and one of the best in the country. If the defense can be strong and ensure that they don’t have to win the close games solely on the strength of the Hall-led offense, perfection is a possibility.
2. Utah: The Utes were as hot as the Cougars were in the final couple of months of last season, and have the talent to take it down to the wire–and to take their fierce rivals down.
3. New Mexico: The key for a talented Lobos team will be a fast start. Doing well in September could give them a lot of confidence for an October that sees them play Wyoming, BYU, and Air Force.
4. TCU: The Horned Frogs might thrive with the weight of expectations not on them this season.
5. Wyoming: Seven starters return from a top-30 defense, and the offense should flourish. Cole’s offenses are more renowned for success through the air, but the ground attack will be dangerous with the duo of Devin Moore and Wynel Sheldon.
6. Air Force: Just how big will the losses of Hall, Carney, Ryan Williams, and Jim Ollis be? RBs Savier Stephens and Ty Paffett, and new starting QB Shea Smith can make that an irrelevant question if they can rack up yards in the Falcons’ powerful run attack. Strong safety Chris Thomas is the star of a defense that might have to be the strength of the team in ’08.
7. Colorado State: Colorado State lost four games by a touchdown or less last season. If Farris can be efficient and leave Johnson and Kyle Bell to run wild on offense, and the defense can avoid any serious struggles, the Rams can take a step back towards winning ways in Fairchild’s first season.
8. UNLV: Wins are a must for Mike Sanford this season. With a pretty good offense and some beatable opponents on the state, a decent year is possible. The game at Utah (second game of the season) could be a biggie in determining if the Runnin’ Rebels have potential.
9. San Diego St.: Eight starters return on defense, but the offense could have some growing pains, unless Lindley is a hit right off the bat.
Check back tomorrow for Part II of the 2008 Mountain West preview, which will break down key games and impact newcomers, and I’ll also have my preseason all-MWC picks as well.
