Last season, Florida Atlantic and Troy were the class of the Sun Belt Conference, and fittingly, the conference title and a New Orleans Bowl berth came down to the final weekend of the season, when the Owls and Trojans met in Troy.
The Owls were down 9-7 at halftime, but outscored Troy 28-3 over the first 15:06 of the second half to take a commanding 35-12 lead. But, the Trojans weren’t finished, and closed within 38-32 with minutes left.
However, the Owls stepped up and closed the deal, making a defensive stop after the Trojans had driven into FAU territory, and became the youngest program to make a bowl game, in only their third year on the I-A level. Then, Howard Schnellenberger’s Owls routed Memphis 44-27 in the New Orleans Bowl to finish off a historic 8-5 season.
This year, FAU is primed for a repeat, as they return the reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year in Rusty Smith and most of their other key pieces on both sides of the ball, and are the hands-down favorites to repeat as Sun Belt champions. Schnellenberger brought two programs in Miami and Louisville into the national spotlight, and he’s well on his way to doing the same with FAU.
Can anyone stand in their way of repeating as Sun Belt champs?
Conference Favorite
As I just mentioned above, it’s Florida Atlantic, without a doubt. Besides returning Smith, the Owls return all but a handful of starters, and five all-Sun Belt first-team selections (Smith, WR Cortez Gent, TE Jason Harmon, LB Frantz Joseph, DB Tavious Polo). They also return three second-team selections (OL John Rizzo, DL Jevonte Jackson, DB Corey Small) and an honorable mention selection (RB Charles Pierre).
Smith (3,688 yards, 32 TD, 9 INT) is primed for another big year, as his top targets return in Gent (64-1,082-9 TD), Harmon (63-825-5), fullback Willie Rose (38 catches, 7 TD), Chris Bonner (25-420-3), and DiIvory Edgecomb (24-416-4). The junior put up big numbers and made few mistakes despite completing only 58.7% of his passes last season, so if he can get in the 60-65% range, he could easily top last year’s marks.
With Pierre (782 yards, 7 TD), Rose (333 yards, TD), and Edgecomb (190 yards, 4 TD) in the backfield, FAU shouldn’t be one-dimensional.
We know the offense will be good, but what about the defense? They allowed 33.2 points and 415.6 yards per game last season, but had one of the nation’s highest turnover margins at +18 – third behind Orange Bowl winner Kansas and national champion LSU.
With several starters returning on defense, a lot of plays will be made once again, and if less can be given up, the sky’s the limit for the Owls. Polo (53 tackles, 7 INT) was a star as a freshman, and he returns along with Small, who had 103 tackles, 5 INT, and 10 pass breakups last season.
They’re going to miss playmaker Cergile Sincere, but Joseph (131 tackles, 12 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT) should have another big year, and senior LB Andre Clark (68 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 3 sacks), senior DL Robert St. Clair (37 tackles, 7 TFL, 4 sacks), and Jackson will be counted on to wreak havoc as well.
The league is FAU’s to lose, and if they can pull off an upset or two in non-conference play (at Texas, Michigan St., and Minnesota), they could be staring at a 10-win season.
Who Can Challenge Them?
UL-Monroe does lose a 1,400 yard rusher in Calvin Dawson, but I think they can push FAU for the title. Why? There’s already a replacement for Dawson in sophomore Frank Goodin, who ran for 596 yards and four scores last season. Goodin will carry the load, but he won’t be all of the offense, as QB and senior Kinsmon Lancaster (1,866 yards, 13 TD, 10 INT) is primed for a big year, with his top three targets returning.
The Warhawks’ defense was one of the better ones in the conference last year, coming in third in scoring and total defense. With eight primary starters returning, including linebacker Cardia Jackson (79 tackles, 7 TFL), corner Greg James (77 tackles, 5 INT), safety James Truxillo (68 tackles, 2 INT), and defensive end Aaron Morgan (34 tackles, 3 sacks, 10 QB hurries), ULM has enough on both sides of the ball to challenge the Owls.
ULM ended the 2007 season on a high, winning five of their last six games to finish 6-6 after a 1-5 start, and that finish, which included a win at Alabama, should have Charlie Weatherbie and Co. feeling good about their chances in 2008.
Darkhorse
With the likes of Troy (Omar Haugabrook, Kenny Cattouse, first-round pick Leodis McKelvin), Arkansas St. (three of their top four leading tackles, including second-round pick Tyrell Johnson), and Middle Tennessee St. (DeMarco McNair, several key defensive players), UL-Lafayette could jump past them to challenge FAU and ULM.
The Ragin’ Cajuns return two 1,000 yard rushers in senior RB Tyrell Fenroy (three straight 1,000 yard seasons) and senior QB Michael Desormeaux (1,405 yards, 10 TD passing, 1,141 yards, 7 TD rushing), and should have an improved defense, led by linebacker Antwyne Zanders (93 tackles, 7 TFL).
Conference Predictions
1. Florida Atlantic – The Owls have the most returning talent in the conference, and should repeat as champions, barring a rash of injuries (knock on wood).
2. ULM – The Warhawks could be FAU’s biggest challenger. The offense should put up some points, and with many of their key defensive players returning from one of the league’s better defenses, ULM has the pieces in place for a title run.
3. ULL – The Ragin’ Cajuns could be the real darkhorse, with a lot of talent returning on both sides of the ball.
4. Arkansas St. – The defense takes a big hit (though LB Ben Owens – 96 tackles – returns), but with QB Corey Leonard and RB Reggie Arnold returning, the Indians (or Red Wolves, rather, starting in the fall) should have a pretty potent offense.
5. Troy – They have to replace several key players on both sides of the ball, but don’t count them out, as key pieces return on defense (Sherrod Martin, Kenny Mainor, Boris Lee).
6. Middle Tennessee St. – They’re set at QB, with either Dwight Dasher or Joe Craddock, and also return all-purpose star Desmond Gee, but defense is a big question mark.
7. North Texas – There’ll be improvement in Todd Dodge’s second year, but the defense will be key to just how much it translates in the win column. The offense will be fun to watch, that’s for sure.
8. Florida International – With a lot of returning talent, they’ll also make strides in Mario Cristobal’s second year, but there’s still a ways to go. They could be a surprise team though, and starting out the season against Kansas, Iowa, and South Florida should help them when they hit SBC play.
Click here to check out Part II of the Sun Belt preview
ULM will be good, but not 2nd place. Troy and MTSU and North Texas bring back a ton of experience, and you have both teams at the bottom have of the standings? No way.
How would you rank the teams? Admittedly, you likely know more about the Sun Belt than I do, but I tried to weigh each team equally.
THe thing about the predictions is that even though I may have a Troy or MTSU where they are…the league is pretty wide open, and any one of those teams is fully capable of finishing at or near the top.
I have ULM in 2nd because I think there’s a lot of potential for success on both sides of the ball, and the way they finished last season has got to have them bursting with confidence.
I honestly don’t think Troy will finish as low as I put them, because they usually find a way towards the top in the end, but I have them there for now because they have to replace some a lot of offense and some key players on defense.
As for North Texas, they’re a team that I’ll be watching closely. If their defense is much improved, then they’ll do much better.
MTSU, they have several guys to replace on defense, but if they can replace them, they’ll also be in the mix.
Sorry for the long-winded response, but I wanted to answer your comment as fully as possible.
Here’s the deal: Troy has had the best recruiting class in the sunbelt for four years, according to rivals. This last season MTSU, had the that title, but then they lost 4-Star WR Anthony Jones, bumping Troy up to 1st again. Troy has nine 3-Star athletes and four 4-Star athletes on the team, some of which will arrive in the fall. Troy has WAY too much talent for a drop off to 5th place.
This year, the O-Line is better, the WR are better (all of them are 3-Stars on rivals), and with 4-Star, Mr. Football Colorado, Maurice Greer, a junior at running from JUCO, Troy will have as good or better of a running game. Defense will be better as well, with over 6 3-Star athletes on Defense.
Troy keeps the same system, so a new OC isn’t like their chaning the entire offense. The OC we have has worked with our previous OC, Tony Franklin, for over five years.
Sorry, forgot to add that our “new” OC is Neal Brown. He worked as a WR coach 2006-2007. So, the hier was in house. Troy’s Head Coach Larry Blakeney said “the only difference between Neal and Tony is that Neal shaves”
TroyFan: Thanks for the overview of your team – nobody knows the team better than their fans!
Like I said above, I don’t think Troy will actually finish 5th, and that the conference is so wide open that there’s no telling how things will really end up. I’m just playing the wait-and-see game with them at this point, since they do have some big pieces to replace.
I’m definitely looking forward to seeing how things unfold.
I am a proud Troy football Mom! I agree with TroyFan2008 not because my son is a returning starter but people just overlook the heart and soul of each of the players at Troy. They believe in themselves because Coach Blakeney and all the fantastic coaches and fans believe in them. They have excellent skills, too. These students have what it takes to achieve their goals and they proven that and will again. We are often overlooked by sport writers because they focus on the SEC and ACC and they fail to give credit to sport programs outside these realms. We have met all the requirements to be a division 1 school just like Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, etc. We should receive just as much coverage on our program and players as they do. Anyway, give us more credit, please !!! Thanks!
No problem, the main reason I think Troy finishes higher than 5th is schedule and depth. Troy opens against an MTSU team devoid of experience (they have 10 seniors) who can’t defend the spread. Of the last seven teams to score more than 30 points on the blue raiders, six of them ran the spread. Troy is also 8-0 in conference play on the road ove rthe last two seasons. The key to Troy’s season is winning the conference and season opener at MTSU. That will give Troy the momentum through the next four OOC games to work out any kinks before facing FAU at FAU on TV, which troy ALWAYS plays well on TV.
Actually, Troy’s only question mark is at the QB position. Sophomore QB Jamie Hampton is very talented (former Purdue commit) but lacks experience. The OL is the best offensive line in the SBC: 5 (!) returning starters, Troy’s Center Danny Franks has been named to the 2008 “Rimington Award Watch list”, and OL Dion Small to the “2008 Lombardi Award Watch list”. OL Chris Jamison was named to Phil Steele’s SB All Conference team. Troy returns 6 experienced WRs (several starters). In addition, we signed JC transfer (***) Gill and HS standout Reeves (***). The RB position doesn’t worry me at all, Sophomore Dujuan Harris saw a lot of PT last year + 2005 Colorado’s Mr. Football Greer and 3-star signee Chris Anderson (who chose Troy over Wisconsin, UCF, etc) will add to our depth.
Defense: The article didn’t mention Troy’s top returnees DE Brandon Lang (****) and Dion Gales (*****) who were both starters last year. We return MLB Lee (“2008 Lombardi Award Watch List”) and both Safeties. We will have to replace both CBs (but we recruited several top DBs -> three 3star JC transfers).
Thanks for all of the info, Troy fans – it looks I’m going to have to go back and change my predictions!
Quick question to the commenters – how would you rank the teams?
Keep ‘em coming – I like to know that the readers are paying attention to what I’m writing, and that they know their team so well.
It will come down between Troy and FAU for the title. There is no doubt about that. I say ULM comes in 3rd (As I predicted them to last year) with MTSU coming in 4th. ASU comes in 5th with the improved NT in sixth. FIU will bump up one to 7th while ULL falls into the dead last position.
I’ll leave troy out because it’s hard to make an unbiased ranking of my own school. So, here it is:
1. ULM
2. FAU
3. MTSU/UNT
5. ASU
6. FIU
Troy will finish between 1st and 3rd. Those are my predictions.
You’re probably wondering why I have FAU at the #2 Spot. The reason is depth. FAU has recruited “ok” They had a lot of close games last year. With the exception of FIU, they didn’t beat any belt team by more than 8 and lost to ULM. FAU will have a huge target on their backs. I believe the Sunbelt Upset Phenomenon could happen again. FAU, the hyped team, will get beat, by ULM.
Not saying Troy couldn’t do it, those are my predictions if TROY wasn’t in the sunbelt.
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