The NFL Draft is only two weeks away, and speculation is rampant about who teams will be selecting with their first-round picks. There’s certainly no shortage of options, and with that in mind, I thought I’d break down which directions each team looks likely to go in the opening round on April 26, starting with the first team that will be on the clock, the Miami Dolphins.
I originally posted this article and the second article (picks 9-16) on Tuesday and Wednesday, but I took them down in order to re-post them after my mock draft, as I ended up going in a different direction with a few picks. Picks 9-16 will be re-posted later, and after that will come 17-24 and 25-31.
1. Miami Dolphins: Will they go Long, or will they surprise us? What Bill Parcells and the Cowboys, I mean Dolphins, will do with the #1 pick has been hotly debated for quite a while, and fortunately, there’s only a few more weeks until they reveal their decision.
Many names have been thrown about - LSU DT Glenn Dorsey, USC DT Sedrick Ellis, Virginia DE Chris Long, Ohio St. DE Vernon Gholston, Boston College QB Matt Ryan, Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, and Michigan OT Jake Long. It doesn’t appear that they’re going to trade it, so which one of those guys will it be?
One of the Longs, who are both the top prospects at their respective positions, seem to be the likeliest possibilities, because Tony Sparano can count on them to be immediate starters in places of need. If it is one of the Longs, it will likely be Jake, because offensive line is a more pressing need than defensive end/rush linebacker.
However, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Gholston winds up being the name Roger Goodell calls first. With his freakish athletic ability and potential, he could be a superstar.
Miami has started negotiations with Jake Long, and has also reportedly opened talks with Gholston as well, but that’s not something to read too deeply into just yet. Still, I picked Jake Long #1 in my mock, because like I said, O-line is their biggest need right now, and they can address the others with their other early picks.
My Choice: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Secondary Choice: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
2. St. Louis Rams: What do they need more - offensive line or defensive line? The Rams’ offensive line was ravaged by bad luck last season, and if Jake Long doesn’t get taken with the first pick, he could be an option at #2. However, if he’s taken at #1, then the clear path is defense. Leonard Little is getting older, and coming off of a serious injury, and La’Roi Glover is not the tackle that he used to be.
With Boston College’s Gosder Cherilus an option in the second round, defense seems like the most logical choice, especially if Chris Long falls to #2. If he goes #1, then Gholston is the choice, simple as that. Gholston projects as an outside linebacker in the NFL, but he can afford to put on a few more pounds in order to stay at end, without losing any of his terrific speed.
Could they go for Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey? Maybe, if they’re looking to move Adam Carriker to end in the long term, but it all depends on if they want to go to the 3-4 full time at some point. If they do, Ellis would be the better fit, because he played in a 3-4 at USC, and could also play in a 4-3.
My Choice: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Secondary Choice: Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio St.
3. Atlanta Falcons: Building block along the line, building block under center, or neither? The rebuilding of the Atlanta Falcons has begun, with a new regime taking charge, a lot of fat being cut, and some key pieces being signed. But, there are still a lot of holes to fill, and two of the biggest are on the offensive line and at quarterback.
You know what they say about putting the cart before the horse, and the Falcons need to make sure they get the horses first, but if Jake Long isn’t available, then picking one of the other top tackles below him would be a reach at #3. Matt Ryan has been a popular choice at #3, but with three second-round picks, QB and OL could wait until round 2.
So, who do they go for? They did address defensive tackle in free agency, but none of the guys that they signed aren’t Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey. I have Ellis rated higher than Dorsey, both because of Dorsey’s injury issues and because of the previous comment about Ellis’ versatility. However, I have Dorsey penciled in at #3, because he’d be the best fit for their 4-3 defense, and as long as he’s healthy, he’s got difference-maker potential.
My Choice: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Secondary Choice: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
4. Oakland Raiders: The Raiders have made a number of interesting moves in the off-season. Will they follow suit with their first-round pick? Given that the Raiders have only the one pick in the first three rounds, there’s a good chance that the #4 pick could be traded to get a few more picks.
But, if they choose to keep the pick, then what will Al Davis pull out of the hat? Logic would dictate that he take either a defensive tackle or a pass rusher, but Davis doesn’t always deal in logic, does he? Darren McFadden has been mentioned in a lot of mock drafts, but I don’t see the need to draft him when there’s a 1,000-yard rusher returning, and there are other pressing needs in the team.
If Dorsey is off of the board, then do they take Ellis? Not if Vernon Gholston is available, because the Raiders need a stud pass rusher to turn what is currently a mediocre unit, outside of Derrick Burgess, into one that makes the AFC West’s young quarterbacks quake in their shoes at least a little.
My Choice: Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio St.
Secondary Choice: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
5. Kansas City Chiefs: If Jake Long is long gone, what will the Chiefs do? Offensive line is the team’s most pressing need, but with Long off of the board, do they go for Boise St.’s Ryan Clady? Maybe, but there are a few other directions they could go in.
Some people think they may go for Matt Ryan, but Brodie Croyle is still developing, and spending such a high pick on a QB wouldn’t be the way to go. If Darren McFadden is still on the board, could he be a possibility? Maybe, but it seems a long shot at this point, even with the down year that Larry Johnson had in 2007.
However, if they don’t go for Clady, going for a cornerback would seem to be their likeliest destination. Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Aqib Talib are all thought of as being potential top-10 selections, with McKelvin having ascended to the top of the heap.
My Choice: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Secondary Choice: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise St.
6. New York Jets: If Darren McFadden slips to #6, do the Jets take him?They splashed the cash to bring in Thomas Jones last off-season, and he did run for more than 1,100 yards last season, but he averaged only 3.6 yards per carry. Jones will be 30 before the season starts, so how many more good years can he be counted on for? Behind him, the speedy Leon Washington is a triple threat and one of the league’s best kick returners, but is he starting material?
If McFadden is available at #6, it’d be pretty hard to pass on him. There’s a chance that they could go for a corner here, but that would be the only other option, because they addressed some of their needs through free agency (offensive line, defensive tackle), and the second round and beyond would be the best time to go for an inside linebacker, receiver, or defensive end.
My Choice: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Secondary Choice: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida/Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St.
7. New England Patriots: Will the Pats still go for a corner? After the departure of Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, and Eugene Wilson, going for a corner would have seemed like the easiest choice for New England. However, by signing Jason Webster, Fernando Bryant, and Lewis Sanders, Bill Belichick might be pinning his hopes on those veterans getting the job done.
With corner possibly not as high of a priority, offensive line seems to be the best bet, after the Giants’ tenacious defense abused them in the Super Bowl. If the Chiefs don’t take Ryan Clady, then he’ll fall into the Patriots’ lap, and if not, Vandy’s Chris Williams or Pittsburgh’s raw, but full of potential, beast of a lineman, Jeff Otah, would be a bit of a reach, but not by much. But, if they do go for a corner, then it’ll be Mike Jenkins or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, more than likely.
My Choice: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise St.
Secondary Choice: Jenkins or Rodgers-Cromartie
8. Baltimore Ravens: If Matt Ryan falls to #8, is he a no-brainer? In a word, no. The Ravens do covet Brian Brohm and Chad Henne, and could hope that one of them falls to the second round, and nab a corner in the first.
If Ryan does fall past #8, then things could get a little crazy, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if that does happen. However, I think the Ravens will end up taking Ryan and wait to take a corner in the second, where they could likely get Virginia Tech’s Brandon Flowers, Auburn’s Patrick Lee, Oklahoma’s Reggie Smith, or Penn St.’s Justin King.
Likely Choice: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Secondary Choice: Rodgers-Cromartie
To check out my updated mock draft, click here.
