Every Wednesday night my friends and I go to a local bar. We share a few pitchers of beer, play darts and talk to people at the bar. There is a group of seven girls that are there every week. The group is very outgoing, and I am attracted to a few of the girls.

From a distance my criteria of judging this group is solely on their physical appearance and the way they interact with other people in the bar. Based on this, a few of the girls smoke cigarettes, a few had sketchy looking boyfriends, one would drink till they puked, and one is mild mannered and just hanging out. So by judging this group of girls from a distance, I formed opinions about which of the girls I would want to spend time with outside of the bar.

Being a guy that does not like a girl who smokes, I knew that the three girls that were always sucking on the cigarettes were not my type. The ones who had sketchy boyfriends obviously had questionable judgment when it comes to picking guys, and I had a feeling they always had weird guys around them. There was one girl who got black out drunk every week. She seemed like a nice girl, but I don’t consider babysitting a girl all night to be a good time. So out of the seven girls three were smokers, two had weird boyfriends, one was drunk by 8:30, and the other girl was not very cute.

After a while, our group became good friends with the girls and we would share a table, talk and have some drinks together. When the groups combined, we were able to get to know these girls on a deeper level and get to know their personalities. I was pleased to know that they are very nice and intelligent girls but they are still smokers, questionable decision makers, a drunk, and a girl who I was not physically attracted to.

Does it mean that my preconceived impressions of these girls cannot change? No, they can change but to think that I could talk myself into wanting to date a girl that smokes would be going against what I want to be around. Or cleaning vomit out of my car from the girl who gets plastered every night does not sound fun either. There is nothing wrong with girls like this but they just don’t fit what I want to be around.

It seems like a similar process happens every year before the NFL draft. Franchises have scouted all of these prospects, been to their games, and watched hours of film. They have had conversations with the college coaches to learn about the athlete’s work ethic and personality. These NFL teams have done their homework extensively, and they have a very good idea about who will fit into their system and the order of the top players.

Will a franchise change their minds when they see an offensive lineman do a standing vertical or when a wide receiver runs a 4.4 instead of a 4.3 in the 40 yard dash? The notion that a player’s value will rise and fall because of a few drills he does in gym shorts and a tank top is silly.

The combine is valuable for small school players, underclassman, and players that had off the field issues. For everyone else it is not very valuable.

If I am an NFL G.M I would keep this process simple. I want to interview the good athletes with off the field problems to see how I feel about their decision making in the future. I want to know it the off the field issues are a constant problem or a one time thing. I want to watch the players from smaller schools to see how they compare with the athletes from major schools. Also, I would want to interview the underclassmen to gauge the maturity levels.

Let’s say I have been to several Virginia Tech games, and I have scouted wide receiver Eddie Royal. By watching him on the field, I know he has amazing speed and very good return skills, but he is a below average receiver. I have seen him drop passes during games and I have seen him break off his routes, but at the combine I notice that he catches some balls and runs a very impressive 40 yard dash. Will this change his draft status in my eyes? No.

On the other hand, if there is a left tackle that has been arrested a few times in college and has character questions will the combine change my feelings? Yes. A team does not have time to take a chance on a player who will be kicked out of the league because of problems, so I need figure out if this is bad character or bad timing. I would sit down with the young man and find out what happened and figure out if the risk is worth taking. I would let him know that we like him but his off the field issues are worrisome. If I am convinced that he will not be a problem, he will be drafted.

This process is an interesting one and a team that tries to over think this could end up getting themselves in trouble. I could have over thought the situation at the bar and said,” hmm… she smokes but she is cute, maybe I could get used to it.” How would I feel after a week with her when all of my clothes smell like smoke?

On the same token, how will the NFL team feel when they draft the strong safety that they did not like during the season but were convinced to change their minds after he ran his 40? Wow he’s fast… but he still can’t play.

If a team has watched Hawaii’s quarterback Colt Brennan they know what he can do. He is a good player and a proven winner. They have their opinions on him and a good combine will not do too much. They look at the guy and ask themselves,” Do we want Colt leading our offense on drive at the end of the game while we are down by 3 points and on the road in Baltimore?” It is that simple. So to think that a good combine would change the way a team will draft is not thinking logically and could lead to a potential disaster.

The NFL draft is not an exact science. Some great players will be drafted in the 7^th round. Some amazing stories will be told about an outstanding running back that was not drafted and worked his way onto the Pro Bowl. Just like dating is not an exact science. Just because I over look a girl who smokes doesn’t mean she is not a great girl. It just says that regardless of how great she is, her smoking habit does not fit my system.

So if you want to take Joe Flacco over Matt Ryan or Dustin Keller over Fred Davis, go for it. I trust what they did during the games, and a combine will not weigh heavily in my decision. Take the draft for what it is, and don’t forget about the season.