Eli Manning barely had gotten through his first post game interview after his New York Giants upset the Green Bay Packers 23-20 in the NFC Championship game last weekend when Las Vegas odds makers installed the New England Patriots as 13.5 point favorites for Super Bowl XLII.
After going 18-0, it was certainly no surprise to see the Patriots named such heavy favorites. In fact, that number has since increased to 14 points. But is such a spread too much for Team Hoodie? Are the Giants not getting enough credit?
New England is the biggest favorite since Super Bowl XXXVI when, ironically, the St. Louis Rams were 14 point favorites over the Patriots.
We all know how that game went, don’t we Mr. Vinatieri?
Yes, the Patriots set a single season record for points scored in a season. Yes, they have been the single most dominant force since the Ming Dynasty. And no, Bill Belichick, no one is underestimating your team, so don’t go sticking this column up on any locker room corkboard.
But 14 points? In a Super Bowl? Only twice has a team been favored by more. The first came in Super Bowl I when the Green Bay Packers got 17 points against the Kansas City Chiefs. The second came two years later in Super Bowl III when the Baltimore Colts were also 17-point favorites against the New York Jets and Broadway Joe’s guarantee.
To put this year’s point spread into even more perspective, not even the 1985 Chicago Bears or the 1989 San Francisco 49ers were bigger favorites. The ’85 Bears are considered one of the five best teams in league history and they crushed the Patriots 46-10 in what was then the biggest blowout in Super Bowl History, but were only favored by 11. Meanwhile, the 49ers were only 12-point favorites on their way to breaking the Bears’ record for the biggest blowout with a 55-10 shellacking of the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XXIV.
Of course, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to compare these Patriots to any other team in league history. After all, Vegas odds makers starting going berserk late in the season, throwing out numbers in the Patriots favor like 16.5, 19, 20.5, 22.5 and a “what were they thinking” 24.5 against the Eagles in Week 12. Of the 13 times the Patriots were favored by double digit points, they of course won all of them, but covered a remarkable six times.
Meanwhile, such a point spread does not bode well for the Giants.
In their Week 17 match-up in what turned out to be one of the best games of the season, the Patriots were favored by 13.5 over the Giants, but ended up winning by only three points, 38-35. A cover by the Giants, but covering a point spread doesn’t win you Lombardi Trophies.
New York hasn’t been this big of an underdog all season. Meanwhile, the Patriots have covered spreads of 16.5 against the Bills (twice) and the Dolphins, 15 against the Redskins, and 11 against the Steelers.
The Giants have had no problem scoring points, as evidenced by their 35 points against the Cowboys in Week 1, 33 against the 49ers in Week 7, and 38 against the Bills in Week 16. But the Patriots have had a knack, especially lately, of doing just enough to keep their opponents on the ropes.
It’s hard to say the Patriots don’t deserve two touchdowns. But it’s just as hard to fathom 18-0.
Written by Brian Walzel
