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Fast 4-ward: A Look Ahead at the NFC Championship

By Kelsey McCarson ⋅ January 19, 2008 ⋅ Subscribe to The Red Zone Report

Both the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants have had their fair share of intrigue and turmoil this season.

The Packers started the season as sure favorites not to be in the playoffs. Remember all the Brett Favre retirement talk and expert analysis of all the Pack didn’t achieve in the offseason?

The intrigue continued when the season began as Green Bay searched for a running game. After drafting Brandon Jackson with their first pick in last years NFL draft and holding onto one-time Oklahoma State superman Vernand Morency, the Pack looked ready to revive a running attack seeking a steady replacement for free-agent loss Ahman Green, but four games into the season the Packers were still looking for a legit ball carrier. Again, experts across the country cited Green Bay’s atrocious running game as evidence of an assured downfall, and again, the pundits were wrong.

After third resort running back DeShawn Wynn went down with a shoulder injury in the Packer’s week 8 showdown with the Denver Broncos, overlooked speedster Ryan Grant entered the game and rumbled for 104 yards in an overtime win. Neither he, nor the Packers, has ever looked back. Since then, Grant has rushed for 956 yards an averaged an astounding 5.1 ypc. Not bad for a player the Packers acquired for a 6^th round draft pick.

Oh, and they got him September 1 from the Giants.

The Giants have had a long, eventful road to the NFC Championship as well. The beginning of the season saw multiple calls from media members and fans for the firing of head coach Tom Coughlin. Coughlin, a disciple of Bill Parcell’s hard-nosed approach of motivating men, was said to be a dinosaur that could no longer connect with today’s professional athlete.

It looked to be true, too. The Giants opened with a horrendous 45-35 loss to the Dallas Cowboys and continued the trend with a 35-13 shellacking at the hands of Green Bay. But, since beginning 0-2 the Giants have circled the wagons, rallied behind their coach and pulled off an inspiring 10-6 season.

Sure, 10-6 is impressive and earned them a wild card spot in the play-offs, but the Giants, armed with the other, less impressive Manning at the helm, were not finished. They continued their march with 2 impressive playoff road wins, a 24-14 victory over Tampa Bay and a 21-17 upset of league favorite Dallas.

Now, New York will again head on the road to face what many believe will be their toughest test: a showdown with the Packers at Lambeau. The game itself will be full of ups and downs and intriguing match-ups, but I believe it will come down to 4 key elements:

1. Quarterback play: As much as Eli Manning has improved this season at managing the game, he is still not anywhere close to being an elite quarterback. His passing statistics are genuinely unimpressive with 20 INTs and only 20 TDs, and he has a completion percentage in the mid-fifties. Yuck. On the other hand, Brett Favre is not only considered one of the elite quarterbacks of this time, but one of the elite quarterbacks of all-time. This season has been a resurgent year for the all-time leader in everything passing. He threw 28 TDs, completed over 66% of his passes and ended the season with a QB rating of 95.7.

2. The Front Fours: Both teams have impressive front four units on the defensive side of the ball. The Giants have relied on sack master extraordinaire Michael Strahan (9 sacks) for what seems like decades now, but have also added ermerging superstar Osi Umenyiora (13 sacks) to a unit that managed to harass Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo into mistake after mistake in last week’s upset. They’ll need to do the same to Favre for the Giants to have a chance. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers have one of the most solid front fours in the league. Stud defensive end Aaron Kampman (12 sacks) and behemoth defensive tackle Ryan Pickett have reeked havoc on opposing offenses all year, while pass rushing specialist Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (9.5 sacks) still has one of the quickest first steps in the game. If the Pack can consistently put Eli Manning in the dirt, then good things should happen.

3. Coverage: Okay. Pretend you’re an NFL executive and I’ll give you your choice of two complete defensive secondaries. One has Charles Woodson and Al Harris as the cornerbacks, with hard-hitting Atari Bigby and ball-hawk Nick Collins as safeties. The other has old, injured Sam Madison and rookie Aaron Ross at the corners, with some equally boring safeties who aren’t even worth mentioning. Who would you take?

4. The final key: …and it may be the most important of all: the elements. Yes, the latest weather forecast has the temperature at or around 4 degrees which seems rather appropriate if you ask me. #4 for the Packers is 43-5 in games at home with a temperature at or below 34 degrees and there is no reason for me to believe that he won’t be 44-5 after this weekend.

Final Prediction: Green Bay 34, New York 17.

Written by Kelsey McCarson

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[…] The Red Zone Report wrote an interesting post today on Fast Fourward: A Look Ahead at the NFC ChampionshipHere’s a quick excerpt After drafting Brandon Jackson with their first pick in last years NFL draft and holding onto one-time Oklahoma State superman Vernand Morency, the Pack looked r… […]

Posted by Nfl » Fast Fourward: A Look Ahead at the NFC Championship | January 19, 2008, 2:51 pm